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The 13 Steps to Sony's Demise
An anonymous reader writes "There's an article up over at About.com called, "Nintendo's Role in Sony's Fall." The article discusses a detailed sequence of events, a time-line, that might play out over the next year or two as Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo battle it out. It references the launch of the Xbox 360, Halo 3, the PS3, and the Revolution strategy, as well as Sony's troubles with employee layoffs in 2008 and the PSP. Right or wrong? Who knows, but it's well informed and after 13 steps, the game plays out like this: Microsoft punches, Nintendo dodges, and Sony ends up with a bloody nose."
Yet more speculative wish-listing from beligerent Nintendo fans. Funny how slashdot always seems to find so much space for the "omg Sony is doomed Nintendo roxor" school of thought.
Sony are in a bad place at this very moment. This is undeniable. Furthermore, this is mainly due to an act of utterly reprehensible greed and stupidity on their part. However, this *will* blow over. A year from now, the public will have completely forgotten that the current DRM issue ever existed.
What people tend to forget when discussing the next generation isn't what's going to change - it's what's going to stay the same. Ultimately, Sony are going into the next round of the console wars with the exact same strengths that gave them such an overwhelming victory during the PS2 era. These include:
- Vast array of third party titles, covering every genre and aimed at every demographic.
- Huge brand recognition with people who don't consider themselves to be gamers, but still like to keep a console around.
- Exclusivity, or early-release deals for the most significant franchises in gaming, including (but not limited to) Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Metal Gear Solid, Grand Theft Auto.
At the same time, Nintendo have not demonstrated that they're prepared to address any of the issues that have rendered the Gamecube so irrelevant over the second half of the current cycle. These include:
- Inability to deliver the quantity of first and second party titles they need to keep gamers interested.
- A dictatorial attitude towards third party developers that serves to keep some of the most important away from the system.
- Very few games which appeal outside of the pre-teen or retro-gamer demographics.
- Serious under-representation in many genres, particularly driving games and RPGs.
All the fancy new controllers in the world aren't going to make the slightest bit of difference to the sales figures until Sony throw away their advantages or Nintendo overcome their disadvantages.
My own predictions as to what will happen? The 360 will make a relatively strong performance, especially with having a Christmas to itself. It won't beat the PS3. It won't even come particularly close. But I think that having a Christmas all to itself and (hopefully) a better RPG presence than the original X-Box will work in its favour. I can see it eventually selling, say, 75 units for every 100 PS3s sold, which would be better for MS than the picture at the end of this round, even if they did manage to take 2nd place in the final straight. The Revolution's only going to continue the slow downward trend out of the mainstream and into niche obscurity that Nintendo have been on for a decade now.
"The system is well designed and performs well, launching the next-generation of gaming consoles."
I don't know about you, but to me, having even 1% of the sold consoles experiencing problem as trivial as PSU overheating, makes the console not well designed and performing well. When you design a piece of hardware, you don't check only if the processors can compute 1+1=2, but also if, you know, you can power on the damn thing.
"Sony, who currently relies on its gaming division to prop up its electronics division, continues to develop the PS3 with more limited resources."
I don't know if the author realizes that Sony also has huge revenues from movies (via Sony Pictures) and music (via "a href="http://www.sonybmg.com/">Sony BMG).
"With a 6-month head start, the Xbox 360 claims the dominant location in households who are unable to afford owning both the PS3 and the Xbox 360."
That's my own interpretation here, but Microsoft might not dominate the market as stated in the article. Microsoft suffers from bad reputation. Even the lamest user know that Windows crashes a lot ("duh! My computer is bugging!"), gamers know that the original Xbox had severe issues (early units couldn't read later games because of a crappy DVD player that could read multi-layer discs), not to mention the above-mentionned defective PSU for the X360.
As far as I know (and I may be wrong), PS2 never suffered any thing of that kind, and Sony has overall a good reputation (since people think they do great electronic device, which is kind of true unless you can afford to spend a few more bucks for higher quality equipment). And no, I'm not an anti-Microsoft. I run Windows XP and I bought a Xbox, kthx.
Unfortunately, it will be relatively easy for MS/Sony to match the revolution's features by releasing a motion-sensitive controller
Which would be about as effective as Sony releasing a harddrive for the PS2 to counter the xbox's built in harddrive. How many games support Sony's harddrive? One?
No FPS maker is going to support sony or ms's add-on motion sensitive controller because not everyone will have it.
Just like the eye-toy.. you'll get the game that's bundled with it, and that's it.
A further scenario that isn't mentioned is the relative health of MS. The article mentions that Sony may have problems resulting from its diversification, in that other divisions are currently (and may in the future) draining from Sony's overall financial health. It does not mention, but it should be said, that the same is true of MS. For the most part, MS makes money from Windows and Office, and runs pretty significant losses in other areas. MS has shareholders who may not support continued revenue loss, and despite popular opinion, MS has backed away from certain markets in the past (television being one example).
Also, MS is fighting battles on many fronts, and so it may be vulnerable to the kind of problems that the diverse Sony has as well. The popular mythos is that MS simply outlasts competitors in all areas by relying on its war chest, but if it is stretched too thin in other areas, the 360 may suffer. Think, for example, of the challenge Google and Linux represent to MS as a company. It would seem that MS's first priorities would be to the protection of its valuable assets rather than currently unprofitable ones on the speculation that they will lead to future gains.
MS also has certain (though not very severe) limitations on its flexability due to its monopoly conviction. It is possible that divisions of MS, including the entertainment section, could spin off to avoid these complications, but the resulting company or companies would not have the consolidated MS's resources.
In all of this, it should be noted that Nintendo focuses pretty tightly on one industry, and this may make them more nimble than MS or Sony. Diversification may end up being something of a liability, depending upon how other divisions perform.
Personally, I hope Sony and MS bleed each other dry a bit; having choice in consoles and games is generally a good thing (although in this era of ports it seems to be less of a factor), but both MS and Sony don't need to cement their oligopolic positions even further. That would be detrimental for everyone except them in the long run.
What is it with that Halo stuff... reading through all the next-gen console topics, it would seem that Microsoft needs only ensure a version of Halo exists to win.
Surely Halo is a nice game, but a lot of people don't even like the entire genre it's in.
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Point 10 claims Sony will be funding it's losing electronics division with profits from the gaming division.
Why would Sony keep the electronics department around if it is losing so big? Either they are confident that it will catch up, ensuring short-term outside funding, or they would just sell the department.
Point 11 claims Halo 3 is the best game ever and will let millions of PS2 gamers dump their entire gaming collection, which they could have taken with them on the PS3, only to be able to play Halo 3 on X360. Besides, considering the PS3 will be relatively expensive anyway, why would MS cut the X360's price and lose even more on the box?
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Erm. Care to explain what your definition of lukewarm reception is? It's in the all-time top 20 at gamerankings.com. It sold millions of copies. It is still the number 1 XBox Live game after being out for over a year.
Heres my predictions for this next generation (ps it takes a monkey to predict this):
*Xbox 360 will have terrible sales in Japan, Ps3 will beat it by a landslide and Nintendo will follow.
*The revolution controller wont be enough for Nintendo to beat Sony or MS only a few games will use it as advertised still kids and non-regular gamers will go crazy with it.
*Nintendo will keep pleasing fans but alienating third parties and the teen/mature market, the online service will be a success but the lack of mature/third party games will keep the revolution at bay.
*The PSP will eventually have a bigger better game library and act as a ps3 controller , the price will drop and a new version will be announced, still somehow it wont beat Nintendo at the handhelds market.
*Gizmondo and Ngage2 will flop.
*Phantom will never exist, after much talk the project will be cancelled , the producers will end up in criminal investigation sued by their own investors.
*Duke Nukem forever will be released for the x360 and people will be underwhelmed with it still it will sell very well then dissapear, a sequel will be announced and it will take 10 years or so to be released.
*Halo 3 will leave fans disapointed still it will sale a few million copies after a huge marketing campaign. The multiplayer will be amazing though. (although pretty much the same than halo2)
*Ps3 graphics will be EXACTLY the same than those in 360 in most cases, it WONT have a hdd and games will be $10 more expensive, hardcores will still buy it like fresh baked bread. (most ps3 games will use a regular dvd instead of blue ray)
*The ps3 will eventually beat MS in the console wars, the best RPG's and japanese titles will go to it, MS will still have a secure second place Nintendo will keep in third although their profits will be a lot bigger.
*EA will keep creating mostly crappy licensed multiconsole games, although some of them will be relatively good. the next Madden and Tony hawk will be announced.
*MS will announce Blue ray support for their next console, Nintendo will announce HDTV support for their next console and Sony will announce HDD support for their next console.
So pretty much, things will be pretty much the same waythey are now.
Go ahead MOD my day!
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