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The 13 Steps to Sony's Demise
An anonymous reader writes "There's an article up over at About.com called, "Nintendo's Role in Sony's Fall." The article discusses a detailed sequence of events, a time-line, that might play out over the next year or two as Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo battle it out. It references the launch of the Xbox 360, Halo 3, the PS3, and the Revolution strategy, as well as Sony's troubles with employee layoffs in 2008 and the PSP. Right or wrong? Who knows, but it's well informed and after 13 steps, the game plays out like this: Microsoft punches, Nintendo dodges, and Sony ends up with a bloody nose."
The article is more analysis of what's happened in the last year than prediction forward. However, the projections made aren't over the top. I was skeptical when I first started reading (because it seems that everyone wants to jump on the Nintendo trumps Sony bandwagon nowadays) but I think the author did a good job of taking the current state of console gaming and projecting into the future. While I'm sure he's going to be correct when he says that the Revolution will make a good compliment to a 360 or PS3, I don't know what percentage of people actually buy more than one system. I never played enough console games for it to make sense. I'm also a bit skeptical about the 360 price drop / Halo 3 launch. Halo 2 met with lukewarm reception IMO. I haven't even finished the game myself. My cousin (who's 10) told me he doesn't want an Xbox 360 because it's too expensive and isn't worth it for one game. Right. While he might not be telling the truth, I've talked to a lot of people who are going to sit back and wait to see what the PS3 is going to give out versus the Xbox 360. I can tell you that after Halo 2, I'm definitely not looking forward to more in Halo 3. At the same time, I haven't even touched GTA:SA yet either. At a $400 price point, I'm going to have to be mighty impressed before I buy any next-generation console.
Halo3, along with a 360 price cut, will be too much to overcome in households that can afford only the 360 or the PS3.
One thing that struck me was the end of this ArsTechnica article comparing the next-gen consoles. Ars hammers home the point that Sony, being a content-creator, and Microsoft being only a device-maker, means that Sony will always tend to have more DRM on their system than the XBox does. Now, granted, consoles may not necessarily become the final media player in your living room, but if they're the ones that make it, quixotically, it seems like XBox is the most open way towards that for now.
This analysis isn't that deep, not even much of a projection. I think that Nintendo may have found the key to competing with less money: innovation. The DS and now the Revolution prove that. Unfortunately, it will be relatively easy for MS/Sony to match the revolution's features by releasing a motion-sensitive controller, and Sony has already offered something amazingly forward thinking with the Eyetoy.
But the PSP and Sony's resources are clearly the problems. Japan's gaming market is cooling off. Square Enix is in a slump. The biggest advancement in this gen of consoles, online games, are better served by the 360. Imagine this: Sony's Everquest works better on Microsoft's "Other Console", the PC, than it does on the PS2. Amazing.
But the most important bit is the PSP. A new hardware launch always kills profit for a while. If Sony doesn't get over the hump and start taking market share from Nintendo in handhelds, the loss in profits and projected revenues will hurt a lot.
Here's what was lacking in the article: the PSP's actual problems.
1. It doesn't come close to competing with the Ipod, which Sony seemed to believe it would.
2. One analog 'stick' in an age of FPS on consoles? This thing can't compete in the U.S.
3. No Square RPGs? No turn-based strategy games? No pet simulator? This thing can't compete in Japan.
4. Portable systems are still children's toys in the U.S. It's too expensive to be a toy, and lacks children's games.
5. With the 360 and PS3 guaranteed to drive spending in home theater setups, this thing has bad timing.
6. Customers can't see it. Everywhere I shop, there is no PSP display. It's hard to be impressed by the screen and games if you can't sample them in person. $250 is too much to spend on faith (for some of us).
Here's what works with the PSP:
1. The movies are actually selling. UMD is the most successfuly media format in terms of speed of adoption: a good sign for the Blu-ray discs Sony wants to push with the PS3.
2. Big Screen.
3. EA's support.
4. Memory prices will continue to fall over time, so eventually this WILL work as a downloadable music player.
5. The "children's toy" label has a chance to change if Sony sticks with this thing long enough.
6. Built-in wifi support means that the zillions of us who have broadband and wireless routers could eventually use this for surfing the web or watching TV/Streaming music, if Sony gets the application right.
Right now, the PSP is 90% potential, 10% reality, 0$ profit. Not the best distraction during a major console upgrade cycle.
It really is a shame about the gamecube. It's done well and made money, but it could have been so much better. I wonder how different the console market would be now if:
- Mario 128 for GCN and Zelda: twilight princess came out six months or a year ago
- Mario kart: double dash was as good as Mario Kart DS
- Zelda: WW had been as good as Miyamoto wanted
I think we'd be looking at a very different console market now
Am I the only one that doesn't understand why everyone is praising the "magnifisciant" XBOX 360 over the other next-gen. As I see it XBox if the only one that doesn't offer me something exceptionnal that would make me buy it.
You have the three folowing, Xbox 360, ps3 and Revolution.
For Ps3 tough it is another cheap computer exclusivly made for game, the Ps2 has offer me an impressive array of different game genre. And many of these genre had a couple of great game. Not to mention that not many of these game were port to comp. I still wait for the same thing from Ps3.
Nintendo current and even next console, on his side is anything but a computer. GC had no online. 4 controler, a lot of coop multiplayer game. It is the perfect console for group entertainement. It also had a lot of exclusive title. Many of relaxing and funny game like mario party and other. So Nintendo was best to socialise physically while playing video game. And I'm still seeing the same public for the Revolution.
On his side, Xbox is only a cheaper computer. It doesn't even drag with a small array of different genre game, and a small array of game I can't already play on my computer. Even their main title Halo is playable on Computer. Xbox was missing variety and as the Xbox 360 just lunch it still miss any variety.
So, If there is one console to fall I can see only the Xboxes serie to do so. Not that I'm expecting this to come for this generation. I do not fear for Playstation and Nintendo for any danger.