Technology Predictions for 2006?

OffTheLip writes "As 2006 fast approaches it's time for some to gaze into the crystal ball of technology and predict what will be hot, what will make a difference in our lives or make someone rich and famous. The Mercury News takes a shot at predicting the coming year of technology. No great revelations but it nice to see clean technologies make the list. The list is light on pure technology and big on trends. Perhaps killer apps are not as important as they once were thought to be." What would Slashdot users put in their top 10?

Comments

I Want My Personalized Entertainment

[moresheth]

I'm anxious to see dynamic (digital) paper, like with newspapers and junk, but I doubt we'll be seeing them this year.

Most likely the number one spot will be a-la-carte television and music downloading. Not just to compete with piracy, but just because that's what people want.

How about

[BCW2]

Flash drives get priced competitivly with hard drives of the same size?

Re:How about

[EvanED]

It's also that hard drives have a high overhead cost. No matter what size the hard drive, you need some controlling stuff, a motor to drive the head, the head itself, and a hermetically sealed container. Compare that to what has to be a very small amount of electronics and a couple cents worth of plastic that goes with your typical flash drive.

That said, I think it will be a LONG TIME before you see solid state parts be priced competitively with hard drives. Looking at Pricewatch, a 2 gig flash card is a little over $100. From Circuit City, there's a 2 gig one for $99.99 after $30 savings and $70 rebate. I paid only a bit more than that (maybe $120?) for a 250 gig Segate a couple weeks ago when my older hard drive decided to go meet the great head of light entertainment in the sky. That means that even if hard drives make no priceing improvements over the following year, flash would have to drop about 50 times in price. Given that about 14 months ago I got a 120 GB hard drive for about the same price (btw, this isn't the one that went kaput), that means that hard drives are a little less than doubling in size for any given price every year. If this trend continues, that means that flash must drop in price 100 times -- that's two orders of magnitude! Do you *really* think that's going to happen?

Secondly, what would you do if flash DID? You couldn't replace your hard drive with it; flash has a much lower life span for writes. With a typical file system, you'd probably see failures much sooner than a typical hard drive failure. At the very least you'd have to find one that's meant for flash drives so you don't burn out frequently written-to areas. (E.g. inode blocks, journal areas. It seems a log-structured file system might be called for here.)

Predictions...

[Wyatt Earp]

Advancements in artificial limb technology driven by the Iraqi Military Operations
Advancements in stripping the psychotropic effects of drugs like Ketamine and X for use as pain killers, driven by the Iraqi Military Operations
A video card that cracks the $1000 US price point
More hybrid and bio diesel technology from the big Automakers
F/A-22, Eurofighter Typhoon purchases get cut, F/A-22 or the F-35 programs might get totally eliminated by the US DoD
Quad core AMD and Intel server chips
US program to put GPS in all cars becomes a political hot issue
UK program to track all cars does not become a political hot issue

Check out e-ink

[castoridae]

E-ink, an MIT Media Lab spinoff, has been working on this since ~1997. They have products to market, although you can't yet get your local paper on it... :-\

http://www.e-ink.com/products/matrix/imaging_film. html

Fusion!

[headkase]

2006 will be the year we finally achieve a sustained controlled fusion reaction! My 1970 copy of the new book of knowledge annual edition says it's just around the corner! Let's hope its not around the corner for another 35 years as we really do need it....

Re:Fusion!

[DigiShaman]

You are correct in that nothing in regards to a single solution will replace the energy needs that we demand from crude oil. However, I suspect it will be a collection of alternative energies ranging from A to Z that will slowly displace our need for oil. This migration will take place naturally through market forces and mankind's lust to capitalize on such solutions.

For 2006, I see a major national plan to diversify our energy grid so that future technologies can be seamlessly integrated for the cooperation of the entire alternative energy industry and to set into motion a set of standards for electrical grid plug-and-play. So far, it's not very accommodating to the private sector willing to sell unused generated energy such as that of solar and wind.

Show me a boy @ seven and I shall show you the Man

[Leontes]

Wikipedia will continue to grow, and content will continue to become more refined and generally better. Facebook will grow, and options for adding non-school connected individuals will be introduced before the end of the year. Myspace, Friendster and Liverjournal usership will decline. The television shows available on itunes will increase ten fold, some regular free television program downloads will become available by march. Political Speeches will become regularly podcast. A c-span like service will become reasonable popular on itunes podcasting service. Macintosh computers will sell more computers in this year than in the last two, combined.

Number 7

[rolfwind]

7. Even small start-ups go global

Three major forces are driving the rise of the mini-multinational -- start-ups that are launched from the get-go as global operations.

First, there's the promise of lucrative foreign markets, which are growing more quickly than in the United States. Some overseas opportunities are now even bigger than here, such as cell-phone sales in China.

Second, U.S. companies can lower their costs and boost profits more quickly by outsourcing work to places like China and India, where labor is cheaper.

Finally, the Silicon Valley model of nurturing start-ups has spread to other regions around the world. Venture capitalists are opening offices in those countries and are getting more comfortable with helping to nurture companies in those foreign markets.

Many companies, seeded by Silicon Valley venture capital firms, set up headquarters in the valley, where they employ high-end engineers, marketing professionals and senior management.

But they have major operations in Bangalore, India, or Shanghai, China, and increasingly elsewhere.

I thought it was easier - the herds who wants to make a fast buck in the stock market now jump on any tech stock hoping it will be the next eBay or Google. In short, there's a lot of demand for investments, but good ones are in short supply That might explain why so many stocks are so overpriced now (according to Buffett). But it should also be pointed out that most newcomers have a poor business plan and eventually are going to fail.

Re:Predictions

[slashname3]

2. Cell phone batteries will need longer life as people listen to music and watch video on them.

Which will result in cell phones the size they were back in the 80's, satchels weighing about 8 pounds.

This will also result in a record number of car wrecks as more people are found watching their cell phones while driving which leads to several states banning the use of cell phones in cars.

There will be a large number of complaints by cell phone users that even with 200 channels available there is nothing worth watching.

There will also be a project started to port mythtv to these new video capable cell phones.

Painkillers

[TubeSteak]

I agree with the need for more/better pain killers

One of the main problems with the current meds is their massive potential for abuse.

I predict this will take off in 2006

To counter abuse, drug makers are developing ways to reformulate prescription painkillers. Purdue Pharma in Stamford, Conn., which makes OxyContin, is thinking of adding a second drug, called an opiate antagonist, that neutralizes the effects of the opiate.

The antagonist would be walled off using polymers or some other sequestering technique, said Dr. David Haddox, the company's vice president of health policy.

A patient who swallowed the drug would get full pain relief, as intended. But if someone tampered with the pills, the antagonist would be released.
...
A second approach is to mix in a chemical irritant like capsaicin, the main ingredient of hot chili peppers, said Dr. Woolf, who has a patent on the idea.

Because the esophagus and stomach do not have many receptors for hot peppers, patients could take the pills as prescribed and find relief, he said. But the lining of the nose and cheeks are loaded with pepper receptors, and anyone who ground up such a pill would get a burning feeling in the chest, face, rectum and extremities, as well as paroxysmal coughing.

It doesn't really advance the effectiveness of painkillers, but it'll be a very very effective stopgap measure to basically kill the street trade in these meds.

Doctors will also be able to perscribe powerful painkillers to the patients who need them w/out constantly worrying the DEA will investigate them for possibly overperscribing pain meds.

BTW - the second method (with capsaicin) is really fucking evil. The Dr. describes the pain of snorting/injecting it here

Re:Painkillers

[fyngyrz]

guess it's gov'ts way of saying they don't mind if you kill yourself straight out, but if end up abusing drugs and then commiting crimes to continue the habit, we should just ban all such drugs in general.

Ah, no. The gov't will hammer you simply for using, having, or selling the drugs, no need to commit any further crime at all... and most people don't.

Just so we're clear. It's a mommy law. It has no reasonable basis in ethics, legitimate protection of the citizen, or the citizen's economy at large (although it certainly keeps a lot of cops, politicians, and other gov't employees in funds and lodging, as well as serving to keep prices high on the street and drug dealers in a very profitiable business.)

Mommy laws:

"Don't use pot." Why? "Because I'll beat you with a strap. It's for your own good." But mommy, I have glaucoma! "You'll have glaucoma with strapmarks on your butt if you step out of line. Now get out of my way, I have to finish explaining to your brother what is going to happen to him if he says certain words on the radio or television."

In Bizarro World

[daemonenwind]

- PS3 sales exceed all expectations as Sony delivers sufficient consoles and games at launch, while the user base ignores the glaring fair-use issues inherent to the Sony product line.
- PalmOne resurges as the owner of the cell/MP3/Palmtop space by incorporating WiMax and Sun microprocessors.
- Apple's move to Intel chips causes the biggest brand loyalty seachange in modern history as disgurntled users throw their WinTel boxes off of buildings.
- Lawsuits will be brought against cities offering WiMax by local users who are hacked over their unsecured connection.
- AOL manages to rebirth itself as a dominant Internet player by selling residential access to Internet2.
- Dell actually "gets off the pot" and begins to sell AMD desktop/laptop systems.
- Elliot Spizer raids the home of Bill Gates, finds a Linux machine running the automated home features, along with the full archive of goatse images as framed art in a hallway.
- Europe splits off from the Internet As We Know It, China joins in, and most left-wing American political websites go strangely quiet on what comes to be known as "Internet Classic".
- The DMCA is overturned by a housewife in New York state appealing a fight with the RIAA all the way to the Supreme Court. Her arguments before the justices become required reading at most major law schools.
- The "Third-World Laptop" will be widely used....to grind grain. See also, "The Gods Must Be Crazy".

The Bad News

[Lucas Membrane]

1. Radar range beam weapons for crowd control. Not lethal but completely inhumane.

2. Lethal drone aircraft the size of insects.

Re:The better battery?

[superpulpsicle]

Speaking of PSP, this is the year sony handheld division must deliver or die. I don't see it sticking around for the sake of playing DVDs if they can't make some great games. FF7 advent children might drive some sales, but ultimately this is where the road split.

Predictions huh?

[sane?]

OK, some random predictions to keep in with the theme.

1) At least on major country or trading block will attempt large scale taxation of the Internet and Internet commerce. This will be used as a cover for the removal of the last vestiges of anonymity, with the sop of removing spam in the same breadth. The approach will spread worldwide as governments find it a no brainer.

2) Parallelisation will continue as not only to all normal machines become SMP boxes, but the flexibility grows to combine and split apart all the computer power you possess. The PDA/mobile phone won't be a separate item, it will become only a part of the wider entity that you can carry with you. Increasingly accessing and synchronising with the whole entity will become as norm.

3) Wireless will go long range as mobile phone companies attempt to get over the still birth of 3G with WiMAX like services.

4) TV will go Internet, and very quickly both transmission and country borders will look quaint.

5) DRM will be added to everything, and just as quickly broken. Lies will be told and individuals will be taken to court.

and finally, but not least

6) Bird flu will hit home, preceding by a dry run of the first wave of infection. All those that have been playing down its impact will point to the first wave and ignore the second. They will die and the world that emerges from 2006 will look very different than the one we have now. The double wammy of the shock of peak oil will send the world into an introspective spiral that will shatter certain expectations.

A look at last year's predications

[Swamii]

Chris Pirillos 2005 predictions:

1. MSN Search will be renamed to MSN Grahams Number
2. Robert Scoble will be fired and/or hired by another company at twice his current salary
3. George Lucas announces three more Star Wars films (dubbed Suckquels), after Special Editions for the Prequels and Super-Duper Mega Deluxe Power Special XP Uber Plus Editions for the Original Trilogy are re-pre-pro-issued
4. Adobe Reader 7.0.1 will be released, solidifying its place in the Guinness Book of Worlds Records as the Most Painfully Long Boot Process for an Application that Everybody Needs.
5. eBay will eBay itself on eBay
6. Microsoft will begin issuing patches as viruses and spyware, thus boosting update adoption by ten billion percent
7. The RIAA will make writing on any kind of CD illegal
8. Everybody and their grandmother will have a podcast thats just as boring and useless as their blogs
9. To compete with Atom in the marketplace, Harvard will start calling RSS Eve
10. It becomes legal to castrate / sterilize spammers under vigilante justice

Robert X. Cringelys 2005 predictions:

1) Microsofts entry into the anti-virus and anti-spyware businesses will be a disaster for users. This is based on everything I know about Microsoft, having watched the company for almost 28 years. They will make a big fanfare, spend a lot of marketing dollars, but in the end, the company simply wont be able to keep up with the demands of keeping virus signatures current, which isnt the real point of this gambit, anyway. There is so much to this story and so much that I could write that I think Ill do so next week, and just move on to the next prediction.
2) Carrying over from last year, I predict that Burst.com will beat Microsoft in their current lawsuit. But to avoid having to eat crow again over timing, let me put this in greater context. IF a trial actually takes place, as it is now scheduled to do this summer, Burst will easily win. Microsoft is at a disadvantage already as a bully. Burst will probably get Judge Motz to tell the jury that Microsoft deliberately destroyed evidence, and it doesnt hurt, either, that Burst is just plain right on all counts Microsoft DID violate their patents, DID violate Bursts non-disclosure agreement, DID attempt to illegally put them out of business, and DID attempt to control the market.

Of course, Microsoft might settle before trial, but at this point, I dont think that is likely out of simple arrogance on Microsofts part. Microsoft is furious with Burst for the little companys continued survival, plus Microsoft is listening to the wrong lawyers on this one. So Burst will win on some or all counts ,and I expect the damage award to be in the billions. Of course, Microsoft will appeal. But the key difference between this case and other Microsoft cases is that once Burst wins, Real Networks and Apple Computer, both of which are also infringing Bursts patents (along with TiVO and a bunch of other companies), will immediately buy Burst licenses, throwing $100+ million into Bursts coffers and leading to everyone else EXCEPT Microsoft taking a Burst license, too. At that point if it goes that far and Microsoft is that stupid Redmond wont be able to risk not having a Burst license and will settle, too. Only by waiting so long Microsoft will have blown any number of advantages it could have had. Typical.

3) Apple will take a big risk in 2005. This could be in the form of a major acquisition. With almost $6 billion in cash, Steve Jobs hinted to a group of employees not long ago that he might want to buy something big, though I am at a loss right now for wh

Re:best in the thread

[argoff]

So, judging by historical parallels, they will need a diversionary tactic, and it's invariably always been a larger general war. It's always been the last gasp of failing empires....

Yeah. I've been trying to figure out what that's going to be though. I don't think it will be the war on terrorisim, no, that reminds me of the war on indians that was fought - then paused while the US went thru a civil war - then resumed after the civil was was over. Also, this time all the conflicts seem to center arround controlling information ..... the fed manipulating money, the stock market, copyright, the internet, dupeing all our trade partners .... and you can't controll information with physical war. It would half to be some kind of information war? Perhaps DRM, price controlls, massive propaganda, idle threats???? Between that supreme court rullings on emminent domain and student loans, and the massive housing debt - it already seems like they're getting ready to do something with peoples property? Try to make a currency backed by land?? I dunno, it is very strange.

Not quite 10, but...

[ar32h]

1. Another technology bubble fueled by small startups with a focus on acquisition. Going public will not be a goal because of Sarbanes-Oxley.
2. WiMax is a big flop. Implementations do not live up to the hype and "Channel sales" favoring established cell companies over municipalities, ISPs, and individuals will restrict the deployment of WiMax access points.
3. Broadcast television decline in favor of video podcasts.
4. Consumer backlash against RIAA due to their heavy-handed legal tactics.
5. A general collapse of walled garden social networking sites.

Technologies that WONT make it in 2006

[jonwil]

Here are 4 technologies that are always seen as "just around the corner" but which I predict wont make much progress in 2006.
1.Flying cars. Not because the technology isnt up to par but because of the difficulty of dealing with the huge regluatory hurdles.

Right now, there are laws limiting where VTOL vehicles (which would include flying cars and also includes helicoptors) can take off and land. If flying cars were introduced, you would need to completly re-write the rulebook when it comes to aviation, flight paths, places you are allowed to take off and land from etc.

2.Video downloading services offering content you can watch on your TV. (as opposed to content you can watch on a mobile phone or video ipod etc)
Firstly, the TV operators (pay and Free-To-Air) do not want competition from "Internet Television" (be it true IPTV running as an actual stream you download or be it something you buy and watch later) and will pressure the content providers (a number of who have investments in cable/satelite/FTA TV) not to expand in this area (just look at what the TV networks did when ABC offered its shows on the iTunes store). Remember that several cable companies are starting to offer video-on-demand and would see internet downloading as a direct competitor to that.

And secondly, the bandwidth required to download full-size movies and TV shows is huge (especially if compressed at a rate that doesnt sacrifice the quality too much and makes them worth spending the $$$ on vs buying the DVD) so many (normal) people (especially people on ISP plans that limit their monthly transfer allowance) are not going to want to download large files like that.

The other problem is how to get the content from the PC where it was purchased and downloaded into something you can watch on your TV. Burning to DVD is not an option (not everyone has the time, skills or gear to burn a DVD and in any case, there is no copy protection method that can be applied to burnt DVDs AFAIK) and the other option (having your computer send the video to a box connected to your TV) is out too because the boxes just arent available (and there is no standards between boxes that do exist as far as what formats they accept or what, if any, copy protection they support)

3.Stem Cells and related technology. (including such things as cloning body parts) There are too many people opposed to this sort of technology (including, I believe, George W Bush to some extent) and too many people worried about the negative effects (e.g. cloned babies) for this to advance out of the lab anytime soon.

4.Online & home delivered groceries. There is some movement towards this idea but no-one has been able to make it work yet. In the vision of the future, you would just scan the barcode on something you want and it would record the item. Then, this combined with other items (items you dont have to scan or items that dont have barcodes like fruit etc) would be placed online and the items would be delivered directly to you.

I am sure there is a big market out there from people wanting to be able to buy all their food etc online.
Even better would be if the online supermarkets could combine with a store like K-Mart, Target or Big W (here in australia, Coles Myer owns K-Mart, Target and Coles Supermarkets and Woolworths owns Woolworths supermarkets and Big W) so you could have all sorts of variety goods delivered in the same order. Also, combine this with the alcohol sales too and you have a perfect item. (both Coles Myer and Woolworths own bottle shop chains)

But even where you can buy online, the range and price dont compare favorably to the bricks & mortar stores and its only available to a limited area. (I have no idea if other parts of the world like europe and america are any better).

As to why I dont think we will see any forward movement with this in 2006, I think it is because in order for this to really take off, the interface has to be dead simple to use.
And it needs to be accessable where the food is

No mention of RFID? I thought RFID was the BFD?

[walterbyrd]

Or was that last year?

Isn't this supposed to the year that Linux *really* takes off?

But why are they illegal?

[gorzek]

You made a lot of good points, but I think some additional information would be useful. Most people don't know why certain drugs are outlawed in the US.

Opium was outlawed because Chinese immigrants in California were making a fortune selling it to Americans. Political elites were terrified by the idea of Chinese immigrants getting rich and having political clout, so it was outlawed. Keep in mind this was during the 1800s, and the very idea of white men and women hanging out with Chinamen just disturbed conservative elements to no end.

The motivation for outlawing "marijuana" was pretty much the same: plain old racism. William Hearst had a lot to do with it. Loads of people smoked "cannabis" at the time. But Hearst's papers started publishing all sorts of propaganda about some evil substance called "marijuana" that Mexicans smoked. It made them lazy and unwilling to work. The prevailing, irrational fear was that black men would smoke it and somehow that would induce them to not only be lazy, but rape white women.

I think if most Americans knew the utterly asinine and racist reasons we outlawed these drugs in the first place, they might be more willing to reconsider their legal status. But for whatever reason, the media won't examine the issue.

Personally, I think the key to judging a law's justness and value lies in evaluating our motives for creating it in the first place. Bad motivations lead to bad laws.