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Plants Produce Methane

CelticCoder writes "With wide implications in the fight against global warming, Phyorg.com is reporting that plants naturally produce methane. Since methane is twenty times more potent than carbon dioxide in trapping heat, are efforts to fight global warming by planting forests actually harming the environment?"

77 comments

  1. What's the proportions? by hahafaha · · Score: 1

    That is, even though methane is 20 times more potent at trapping heat, will enough of it be produced by the forests we plant to top the amount that carbon-dioxide is trapping?

    1. Re:What's the proportions? by gsanmartin · · Score: 1

      While it is true that on an absolute basis, methane is the second largest contributor to climate change, it has a very low global warming potential compared to most other GHGs. Even so, CH4 is 21 times as potent as CO2. So, if the CH4 to CO2 proportion (tons CH4 emitted:tons CO2 stored) from a tree (over its lifecycle) is greater than 1:21, then trees are part of the problem (rather than part of the solution). According to Tufts: a tree stores 671 lbs of CO2 over its lifetime (presumably, lifetime excludes decomposition). Source http://www.tufts.edu/tie/tci/seques tration.htm So, if the CH4 emitted per tree is 32 lbs or more, we'z in a heap o' trouble. The Nature study's coauthor, Thomas Röckmann, stated, "Rough estimates suggest the positive effect of storing carbon far outweighs a plant's emissions of methane . . . ." Source: http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/living/health/1 3636155.htm Sounds like Röckmann has already done an estimate of the proportions. I suppose that Röckmann et al did not make the estimated proportions available to the press since the proportions were not covered. Was the "rough" estimate enough to conclude that a more detailed estimate was not necessary? One might ask, why wasn't a per tree comparison included in the report? The omission of the estimated emission proportions seems to me to be a major weakness. I have a hard time believing the findings when something so obvious seems not to have made its way into the hands of the press. How does the rate of methane emission change over time? At what stage in its lifecycle does a tree cease producing methane? How does the methane emission rate change between species? The report summaries suggest that the conclusions were based on lab studies of rye grass. It seems to be a bit of a stretch to go from lab rye grass to the entire Amazon. Who funded the work? Röckmann has the answers. Greg

  2. Nature by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative
  3. Much ado about very little by drakewyrm · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Could plants be producing that much methane? It seems to me that if they needed to look that closely to prove that plant were producing methane at all, than the levels in question would not be that significant.

    I don't mean to undervalue their research; it's actually quite fascinating that plants do this. However, I don't necessarily agree with the conclusion that plants cause global warming.

    --
    Batou: Hey, Major... You ever hear of "human rights"? Major: I understand the concept, but I've never seen it in action
    1. Re:Much ado about very little by CanSpice · · Score: 2, Interesting
      From the article:
      In terms of total amount of production worldwide, the scientists' first guesses are between 60 and 240 million tonnes of methane per year. That means that about 10 to 30 percent of present annual methane production comes from plants.

      10 to 30 percent is a substantial fraction. Even if they're high by a factor of two, that's 5 to 15 percent, which is still substantial.
    2. Re:Much ado about very little by Feanturi · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They say they hadn't looked at it before because it had been assumed that the presence of oxygen is supposed to mean you can't get methane, and since we know plants put out oxygen it was perceived to be a waste of time to investigate.

      But I too am skeptical that this contributes to global warming. Now, IANAGWKMAP (I am not a guy who knows much about plants) but they mention in the article that carbon dioxide is worse than methane (methane is in second place) for global warming. Plants take in carbon dioxide. I wonder how much? If it's the same amount or more compared to the methane they apparently emit, then more green still means less global warming. So how much CO2 does the world's biomass remove from the atmosphere annually? Answer that question and you're done figuring out whether more plants are a problem or not.

    3. Re:Much ado about very little by Metasquares · · Score: 3, Informative

      Relative to the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (2.7 * 10^12 tonnes, according to Wikipedia), the amount of methane (~1.5 * 10^8 tonnes) is trivial, even considering the higher warming potential of methane.

    4. Re:Much ado about very little by falcon5768 · · Score: 1
      I do, because people have forgotten the simple fact that "Global Warming" is 100% a natural effect of our enviroment and has happened hundreds of times before man even existed. Something had to cause our normal warming cooling cycle, its only too obvious, plants had to be part of it, along with animals.

      The problem is Enviromentalists refuse to admit that Global Warming is infact natural, that mankinds only fault in it is speeding it up.

      --

      "Slashdot, where telling the truth is overrated but lying is insightful."

    5. Re:Much ado about very little by mugnyte · · Score: 1


        Naturally occurring or not, nothing says humanity has to survive it. You may be missing the point.

          The cause to limit Global Warming is based on the threat to survival, not simply because its "unnatural"...perhaps you'd like to try living in a wild new climate - there are plenty to practice in.

        Anyway, the question is moot. That era is now.

    6. Re:Much ado about very little by belg4mit · · Score: 1

      Misc. tidbits after grepping my mind and flipping though my library:

      Plants are, afterall, what gave us an oxygenated atmosphere in the first place (well, a large part was done by their ancesotrs the blue green algae). Methane is more absorbant but less stable than CO2 (carbon dioxide is an incredibly stable molecule thermodynamically, and the methane autooxidizes). Plants produce oxygen and CO2 as well (they burn sugar they produce with photosynthesis during the day when resting at night (no sunlight)... why else would they make it?). Water vapor is actually the primary greenhouse gas, and we do exacerbate that as well (e.g; pump it into the desert where it can evaporate quickly). Marine vegetation probably provides about a 1.5 Gt carbon sink a year. Terrestrial carbon flux is rather complicated as soil health plays a major role in the net uptake (soil carbon load is about double that of all vegetation). Plants seem to be sinking a good 3-4 Gt of C, about half of what we were dumping into the atmosphere in 2000 (the mount is growing quickly).

      See _Cycles of Life_ by Vaclav Smil published by Scientific American.

      --
      Were that I say, pancakes?
    7. Re:Much ado about very little by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      Substantial yes, but aren't we, and the OP, forgetting about the other 70-90%? How does the 10% compare to the amount from waste and sewage? How can farming practices be improved? It's almost a farce to suggest we stop planting trees, when it is probably negligible to the huge swaths of the rainforest are lost to logging every year, and in more urban areas, rich farmland is lost due to sprawl. Yes, forests produce methane, but they also produce other useful gases, like, I dunno, Oxygen?

      The global warming issue is no simple matter, clearly. This post reminded me of the fact that the ocean, not just land, is an important carbon sink. And with the warming of the oceans, more carbon will be released, think of a warm bottle of carbonated softdrink. Further, the ocean's currents work like a giant conveyor belt, to warm cold areas like Europe, or bring cool water to hot areas like California and Central America, but global warming alters the dynamics of this system. From a high-level view, the significant changes to the earth, such as greenhouse gases, impact the "buffers" available, similar to the impact of a Krakatoa exploding would have on the earth, for example - but this is something we will simply dig out of once the dusts settles, unfortunately.

      So I think that one of the complexities of global warming is that there is such a tremendous amount of factors and systems (remember, supercomputers are used to model global warming), that to say "if I do x, then y", is a bit naive.

    8. Re:Much ado about very little by bhiestand · · Score: 1
      The cause to limit Global Warming is based on the threat to survival, not simply because its "unnatural"...perhaps you'd like to try living in a wild new climate - there are plenty to practice in.

      I for one can't wait to see the day of man end. I imagine my bandwidth will increase by at least a magnitude of 2, latency should drop way down, and no more peak hours. I'll never get another spam or sales call. Hell, I may never have to see another advertisement again! Microsoft will cease to be an evil corporation (because it'll no longer exist), and I'll never hear about politics again. I don't expect to see another bible thumper knocking on my door, either.

      Paradise on earth at last!!!

      But seriously, I'm going to miss sex, and I realize I'll eventually run out of beer. And if I have to resort to eating rabbit again, there's going to be hell to pay!
      --
      SWM seeks new sig for a brief fling
    9. Re:Much ado about very little by hamburger+lady · · Score: 1

      so first you say that GW is "100% a natural effect of our environment" and then you say that mankind speeds it up. so i guess it isn't 100% natural then, is it?

      --

      ---
      Is this the MPAA? Is this the RIAA? Is this the DMCA? I thought it was the USA!
    10. Re:Much ado about very little by Lars+T. · · Score: 1

      Yeah, and mountains are proof that pyramids are natural occurrences.

      --

      Lars T.

      To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

    11. Re:Much ado about very little by Dharh · · Score: 1

      I think it is telling however that this completes a cycle where water and carbon dioxide turn into oxygen and methane which when theres fire turn back into carbon dioxide and water.

      --
      A warrior keeps death in the mind at all times from the moment of his first breath to the moment of his last.
  4. And the question on everyone's mind ... by Jtoxification · · Score: 1

    So the add-on questions would have to be: how much methane is released by these plants, which plants are they, and how much could be cut down by removing them and planting others?

    --
    --I gots 99 problems but a new machine ain't one!
    AMD! Asus! Whoot! 6 years!
    1. Re:And the question on everyone's mind ... by CanSpice · · Score: 2, Informative
      Try reading the article.

      In terms of total amount of production worldwide, the scientists' first guesses are between 60 and 240 million tonnes of methane per year. That means that about 10 to 30 percent of present annual methane production comes from plants.


      The largest portion of that - about two-thirds - originates from tropical areas, because that is where the most biomass is located.


      Those three sentences pretty much answer all of your questions. Given the last sentence, one can infer that all plants release methane.
  5. This can't be! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We have to be able to blame PEOPLE and their horrible new-fangled inventions like cars and stuff! Plants have been around even longer than people, so this will not do...not do at all!

  6. It's in the trees man! by narftrek · · Score: 0, Interesting

    First we had trees that make electricity and now on the same day we have another article about trees making methane. There has GOT to be some kind of evil conspiracy here...better put on my tinfoil hat until I figure it out!

    Conspiracy Theorists Unite!

  7. What he neglects to mention... by shaitand · · Score: 4, Funny

    The summary neglects to mention that the plant studied had beans for dinner that night.

  8. Plants a small piece of the pie by Shihar · · Score: 4, Informative

    The biggest problem with plants is that they don't do much to get rid of CO2. They just store it for a few years and to a limited extent return it to the ground. While planting more plants is unlikely to hurt things (even if they release trace amounts of methan), they do not solve the core problem. The core problem is that we are taking massive quantities of old organic matter and burning it. When we burn organic matter that has not been in the ecosystem for millions of years, we add substantial amounts of CO2 (among other things) into the atmosphere. There are other things that add green house gases that we have absolutely no control over, like volcanoes. Throw in potential effects that the sun might be having, and plants really become only a tiny slice of the pie for good or for ill.

    Honestly, I think the solution in the long term is technological in nature. 5 billion people are on their way to consuming as much as the 1 billion biggest consumers. In a utopia, we might be able to convince the big consumers to stop consuming that those who currently consume little to carry on not consuming. We don't live in that ideal world.

    The solution is for the technologically advanced and rich nations of the world to work like hell to make the industrial revolution that the other 5 billion or so people are about to go through is cleaner then the one the Western world already had. There is no policy that can stop what is going to happen. The only hope that we have is to apply technology to mitigate and reverse the damage that has and will continue to be done.

    I am not suggesting we blast pollution into the air because it is a lost cause. I am suggesting that in addition to taking restraint steps where we can, we work our hardest to find real solutions that are compatible with first world style living and environmental concerns. The sooner we recognize that as a species we WILL consume more as time goes on and recognize that the solution is two parts technology and one part restraint, the sooner we will find solution to these very real problems.

    1. Re:Plants a small piece of the pie by bhiestand · · Score: 1
      The biggest problem with plants is that they don't do much to get rid of CO2. They just store it for a few years and to a limited extent return it to the ground. While planting more plants is unlikely to hurt things (even if they release trace amounts of methan), they do not solve the core problem. The core problem is that we are taking massive quantities of old organic matter and burning it. When we burn organic matter that has not been in the ecosystem for millions of years, we add substantial amounts of CO2 (among other things) into the atmosphere.

      I've already solved that but nobody will fund me! Instead of sucking all the oil out of the ground, burning it all, then moving on to the next hole when we're done, I propose that we chop down all those pesky forests, bury them in the dry oil holes, and plant new seeds where the forests were. Monitor forest-filled-oil-hole until it becomes oil-filled-hole. Wash and repeat. There's profit in there somewhere too, especially if you do contract killing and throw the dead bodies in (for a price).
      --
      SWM seeks new sig for a brief fling
    2. Re:Plants a small piece of the pie by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This would require a "Manhatten Project" appraoch to solve, but, as mentioned here and many other places, our government is nolonger capable of such. No government with sufficient money is. So, somebody needs to take over the world and dictate a project for this. Otherwise, humans will go on being humans and we'll consume ourselves to death.

      Oh, wait, we're kinda like roaches too. Somehow, we always survive. Is that good?

  9. Re: scientists by drakewyrm · · Score: 1

    > ...thinking you know everything.

    Much as I hate to feed the trolls...

    Scientists don't think that they know everything. That's why they keep looking. How many of us could do the same thing? How many of us keep looking once we've found our car keys?

    From TFA:

    "Methane could not really be created that way," says Dr. Frank Keppler. "Until now all the textbooks have said that biogenic methane can only be produced in the absence of oxygen. For that simple reason, nobody looked closely at this."

    They had an answer, but they kept looking anyway.

    --
    Batou: Hey, Major... You ever hear of "human rights"? Major: I understand the concept, but I've never seen it in action
  10. From the article... by I(rispee_I(reme · · Score: 1

    1) "Methane is the greenhouse gas which has the second greatest effect on climate, after carbon dioxide."

    2) "Nowadays, methane in the atmosphere in fact is largely of biogenic origin."

    For you subgeniuses out there, biogenic means (roughly) that it was made as a result of man, such as methane from crops and bovine farts.

    It is quite unexpected that methane can be made in the presence of oxygen. However, politicians and corporate whores (some overlap there) will swiftly trumpet (as did the parent post): PLANTS MAKE GREENHOUSE GASES! NO NEED TO WORRY ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING, BECAUSE THERE'S NO WAY TO STOP IT WITHOUT KILLING ALL THE PLANTS!

    This is very similar to the Creationists, who, whenever there is a new hypothesis about how evolution works, take to the streets in great numbers to proclaim that science has decided evolution is a lie spread by the devil. Basically twisting any science headline to suit their agenda.

    Global warming is real, is caused by humans, and most people who disagree are either in the pocket of those who profit from it, or misled by the same.

    Bonus frantic "talking-point": Plants make carbon dioxide too. That means it's probably okay to dump as much of it as we can into the atmosphere.

    Word.

    1. Re:From the article... by Fritzed · · Score: 1, Funny

      Bull, how dare you compare evolution to global warming. Evolution is a theory created by satan worhippers to deny the fact that all of human kind were created by the Giant Spaghetti Monsterism on a hill with a tree. Global warming, on the other hand, was caused by the invisible space cows which blast vast amounts of methane into the sky at such high altitudes that we simply don't detect it.

      I challenge you to prove me wrong.

      -> Fritz

      --
      Spooooon!!!!!
    2. Re:From the article... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you think that plants grown by humans represent more than a miniscule fraction of the total biomass of all plants then you are a fucking moron. So no, biogenic does not even roughly mean "made as a result of man."

    3. Re:From the article... by I(rispee_I(reme · · Score: 1

      You are indeed correct that biogenic means made by living things. Thanks for increasing my word power, AC.

      Happily, my point still stands, even with the error. Even more happily, I'm not a fucking moron (at least by the parent's criterion.)

    4. Re:From the article... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Happily, my point still stands, even with the error."

      That remains to be seen.

  11. Re:You fucking scientists, that's what you get for by QuantumG · · Score: 1

    No scientists I know of say FTL travel is impossible. Some of them may express their opinion that we'll never have FTL travel.

    --
    How we know is more important than what we know.
  12. Oh my god by Wisgary · · Score: 0, Interesting

    I just realized there's bacteria that produce methane... BACTERIA IS EVERYWHERE. Therefore, I declare bacteria the culprit of global warming. That, and farts, and bacteria make farts, so get your lysol ready.

  13. I can imagine in 10,000 years the aliens... by Alpha27 · · Score: 1

    making fun of us.

    "Those silly humans, they treat global warming by fighting fire with fire"

  14. Re:Karma Whore by mugnyte · · Score: 1

    heh. said like a true AC troll. *golf clap* well done.

  15. Practically speaking.. by Taisa · · Score: 1

    As disturbing (and academically interesting) as it is that plants help contribute to potential global warming in one way even as they relieve it to a moderate degree in another... does this really change how we deal with the warming problem that much? Practically speaking this mostly just discredits the positive role of plants in controlling CO2 emissions. The heart of the problem with our rising methane, etc. levels in the atmosphere comes from human industry and ruminant agriculture. A 10-30% methane contribution is indeed substantial, but would be environmentally sound if it weren't for all the other methane emissions we have at the moment. Even so, what can you do about it? Start reducing vegetation? If we're to actually work towards reducing methane levels, we have to start controlling human-related emissions. It's what we actually have control over and what is still apparently the most sizeable methane contribution.

    1. Re: Practically speaking.. by QuantumG · · Score: 1

      does this really change how we deal with the warming problem that much?

      Uhhh, I wasn't aware that we were dealing with the warming problem. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will do nothing to stop global warming. That's the nature of a greenhouse, you point light at it and it will trap the heat. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions just stablizes the rate at which the heat is trapped. It doesn't decrease that rate and it doesn't reduce the heat that has already been captured.

      --
      How we know is more important than what we know.
  16. Re:You fucking scientists, that's what you get for by Geoffreyerffoeg · · Score: 1

    FTL travel is impossible...for tardyons...in anything resembling normal spacetime...through simply applying a conventional force to accelerate them past the speed of light. If the only thing you do is keep applying a finite force to an object at rest, you can never get it to the speed of light.

    On the other hand, there's plenty of loopholes (pun intended) in spacetime that you can use to effectively reach somewhere before a beam of light traveling in normal spacetime could.

  17. Re:You fucking scientists, that's what you get for by QuantumG · · Score: 1

    Sigh. If you are able to apply a constant acceleration to a body there's no reason why its velocity could not someday exceed the speed of light. The point of relativity is that you are not able to apply a constant acceleration as the amount of energy required to produce a constant acceleration is not a constant - it increases exponentially as you approach the speed of light. So if you were to develop a means of accelerating a body without expending energy the body would behave classically even as its velocity approaches the speed of light. Not that anyone knows how to do that.

    --
    How we know is more important than what we know.
  18. We have a minimal understanding of nature by jgardn · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I think this is yet another nail in the coffin of the we-are-causing-global-warming-so-stop-driving-now crowd.

    We understand so little about weather and the atmosphere and global warming and our sun that to think that we even have an idea of how to reverse the process if it is happening to a significant degree, or to think that we even understand what is really causing it, is absurd.

    This is the old blind men and the elephant story. One person thinks it is a spear. Another, a snake. Another, a tree. Another, a whip. Except this elephant is so large and so complicated that even with all of our eyes open and all of our technology looking into it, we still can't figure it out. One group says the earth is cooling. Another, warming. Another, it was too cold now it is coming back to normal. One group says we should stop burning fossil fuels. Another says we should stop burning fossil fuels uncleanly. Still others say that it doesn't matter how much or little CO2 we put out in the atmosphere, the earth tends to absorb it. Others say that the US is the cleanest country in the world because we allow market forces to handle the management of the environment, so we shouldn't regulate it at all but let people choose what they want to do or not do to protect it.

    The weather is something beyond our understanding, so it's best that for right now, we attribute it to an Act of God. When we can understand enough about it that we can get an accurate picture and draw conclusive---and correct---results, then we can start taking responsibility for it.

    --
    The radical sect of Islam would either see you dead or "reverted" to Islam.
    1. Re:We have a minimal understanding of nature by Jah-Wren+Ryel · · Score: 1

      The weather is something beyond our understanding, so it's best that for right now, we attribute it to an Act of God

      Hah! After your second sentence I was thinking - I bet this guy believes in intelligent design, and then whammo!

      --
      When information is power, privacy is freedom.
    2. Re:We have a minimal understanding of nature by Lars+T. · · Score: 1
      This is the old blind men and the elephant story. One person thinks it is a spear. Another, a snake. Another, a tree. Another, a whip.

      And we seeing people have been telling you for years it's global warming.

      --

      Lars T.

      To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

    3. Re:We have a minimal understanding of nature by jgardn · · Score: 1

      Except you yourself haven't seen any part of the elephant. What research reports have you studied?

      Here's the parts of the elephant I haven't seen yet. Maybe you "seeing person" know the answers. Tell me, what percentage of the earth's temperatures are we measuring at any one point in time? How much of the temperature throughout earth's history do we know, and within what error range? When we talk about "average temperature" what do we really mean? The average of all measurements or the average of all temperatures on the surface of the entire earth?

      What are the effects of raising or lowering the average temperature of the earth by fractions of a degree? What proof do you have that these are the effects, or are you only predicting without any good models? Can you tell me how many more or fewer hurricans will hit the Florida coastline if we increase the temperature by 0.1 degrees? How accurate are your predictions? What about the effects on crops, human lifespan, average human intelligence, the economy? Are you accounting for new markets that will be created if Europe comes out of its little ice age?

      Can you name all the chemicals found in our atmosphere? For each chemical, name the following properties: What is its effect on global temperatures? What concentration do we find these chemicals at which levels of the atmosphere? From whence do each of these chemicals come? What will happen to the earth's temperature if we increase or reduce the levels of this chemical? Please account for new plant growth or adaptations in the earth's environment. For instance, increasing CO2 may increase the algae population in the ocean, causing the ocean to absorb more sunlight. Please be specific and complete in all your assessments.

      Can you name how much sunlight is hitting our earth, and compare with historical levels? What is the accuracy of our measurements and historical measurements? Have you measured how much heat hits the earth and is escaping? How have you done that? What are the accuracies of these measurements?

      How much of the heat in our atmosphere comes from the earth itself? Can you determine what the historical levels were? How accurate are your measurements?

      These are all questions I have been asking for years, and no scientist has ever been able to answer them. Bottom line: We don't see the elephant. No one does, until each of these questions can be answered definitively and with a very high accuracy for a very long period of time.

      --
      The radical sect of Islam would either see you dead or "reverted" to Islam.
    4. Re:We have a minimal understanding of nature by ralphclark · · Score: 1

      Congratulations on being the first completely stupid idiot I have spotted so far this year. I'm obviously not spending as much time on slashdot as I used to.

      Get this: there is a broad and deep consensus among the international scientific community that global warming is both real and largely responsible for the climate change we are now seeing (and which - thank God for irony - seems to have it in for the biggest atmospheric carbon emitting country in the world).

      It is only the rich US elite and a few paid lackeys who have been publicly pretending otherwise even though they all know very well - Bush included - what the score really is. Their own scientists told them the truth even when they'd been instructed to provide a report more supportive of US Energy policy. The report had to have its conclusions edited out before publication. The elite intend to protect their own interests for as long as they can get away with it - and by the way in case you hadn't got it yet, their interests do not coincide with yours or mine.

      With regard to the specific news under consideration: here is some kindergarten science for you. Trees are carbon accumulators. They take carbon out of the atmosphere and turn it into solid material that goes into the ground. So what if they seep microscopic quantities of methane? Trees are net carbon sinks. This is the trouble with you lot: to you, every factoid you hear has an equal weight - so all the Washington spinmeisters have to do is pay somebody in a white coat to count up the mouse farts and you'll then believe that mice are responsible for global warming, never mind the 7.5 billion barrels of oil the US consumed last year.

      Stop getting your science from the Fox News and the National Enquirer and try finding some real climate scientists to talk to before you go spreading more misinformation.

      It's a nail in the coffin all right, but the nail is theirs, and the coffin is yours.

    5. Re:We have a minimal understanding of nature by Lars+T. · · Score: 1
      Tell me, what percentage of the earth's temperatures are we measuring at any one point in time?

      Oh boy, all of them? Could you be any less specific? Your question already shows you have no clue. And no, I am not going to waste my time trying to tell you why, because that would be futile.

      --

      Lars T.

      To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

    6. Re:We have a minimal understanding of nature by jgardn · · Score: 0

      It's a rather simple question, but the answer cannot be.

      Given any point on the surface of the earth, can you tell me what the temperature at that point is? In other words, what is the temperature everywhere on the earth? Let me break down this question into a thorough examination of how it needs to be answered.

      We obviously can't measure every point on the surface of the earth. We only have a finite number of thermometers and there are an infinite number of points on the surface (or any surface). But the thermometers we do have give us a reasonably good picture of the total surface temperature. We can use some mathematics to discern what the temperature of the earth is between thermometers, but we have to make all kinds of assumptions that may not be correct. For instance, if me and you are holding thermometers that measure 65 degrees, it is reasonable that the space between us is also 65 degrees. But if that space between us is large enough, it is probable that the temperature can be 66 or 64, or even 90 or 32 degrees.

      Here's another way to measure the entire surface temperature of the earth. I believe that NASA can take infrared picture of the earth and thus tell us what they see in space. But is this measuring the temperature at the surface of the earth, in the middle of the atmosphere, or at the top of the atmosphere? And how accurate is it? That is, if we get back a pixel from the infrared camera that says that the surface of the earth that corresponds to that pixel is 65 degrees, how do we know it is 65 and not 66 or 65.1 or 65.00001 degrees? And how big is that pixel? Can we rest assured that that pixel will represent the average temperature of the surface measured by that pixel, or is it measuring the maxima?

      You see why this isn't a simple question. Even with our best technology, we simply don't know very well what the temperature of the entire earth is. Therefore, people who talk about the "average temperature" have to be more specific about what they mean the "average temperature", and show what methodologies they used to derive the numbers, or, if they are relying on someone else's numbers, point us to how that someone else derived their numbers.

      Let's introduce the problem of time. Let's expand the question to "What is the temperature at any point on the earth at any time, past or future?" We obviously can't measure the future. So no one can tell us what will happen. They can only predict or guess what will happen based on the best information they have. This prediction may or may not be correct, and if history is any guide, scientific predictions about things that aren't very well understood tend to be wrong.

      But let's look at temperatures in the past. What was the temperature at any point on the earth 5 minutes ago? 1 hour ago? 24 hours ago? 1 week ago? 1 month? 1 year? 10 years? These can all be reasonably answered based on similar methodology to answer the first question. Technology for measuring the earth's temperature really hasn't changed that much in 10 years time. (Has it? If it has, read on...)

      What about 50 years ago? Did we have any spacecraft 50 years ago? No, unfortunately. How are you going to model the earth's temperature then? Obviously, there is far less data. And how can you compare the results of these measurements 50 years ago to today's?

      What about 200 years ago? 200 years ago, body temperature was 100 degrees Fahrenheit on average. Either people were warmer back then, or our measurements were inaccurate. (It was the latter, if you must know.) So 200 years ago, somebody measures the temperature of Paris, France. They get 64 degrees Fahrenheit. Today, we use the same method and get 65 degrees Fahrenheit. Did the temperature increase, decrease, or stay the same? The bottom line is, we can't tell because the measurements 200 years ago were inaccurate.

      What about 10,000 years ago? Now we have to find things like ice cores and tree rings to determine that. What are the errors for these measurements? How can we tell that we are i

      --
      The radical sect of Islam would either see you dead or "reverted" to Islam.
    7. Re:We have a minimal understanding of nature by Lars+T. · · Score: 1
      It's a rather simple question, but the answer cannot be.

      Well, DUH.

      --

      Lars T.

      To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

  19. Well, now it's clear what we must do. by shiftless · · Score: 1

    Kill all the plants! Burn the forests! Bulldoze greehouses! We have to destroy them before they kill us! Huh? What do you mean we need them to survive? Man, they're evil! Didn't you hear, they cause GLOBAL WARMING!!!1

  20. spoken like a true politician... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    Yeah, spoken like a true politician. Pie in the sky, but no reality behind it. Sort've like a donut - nice and sugary for the masses, but empty calories. Lot's of fancy promises, very uplifting, nowhere even close to feasible, at least with the current administration/regime in power (sorry for being U.S. centric, but we are 45% of the wasters, eh?).

    We'll solve it technically? Riiiight - when the most significant contribution from the world's superpower is to change the name from 'global warming' to an innocous 'climate change' and then have lobbyists write scientific articles bashing the 99% of scientists who argee global warming is occuring. Not a snowball's chance in global warming hell shall we say.

    Call me cynical, I just don't see the major polluters doing a thing as far as pollution, technological or otherwise. You do know the U.S., with a trifle of the world's population, yet 45% of it's waste, did not join the Kyoto Protocol. Yes there were reasons, but folks, we have to start somewhere. But nor do I see the Chinese, or other 3rd world (2nd world?) countries volunteering to reduce greenhouse gases. Too bad, because, as Bob Dylan said, the times they are a changing.

    Nope, we'll leave it up to the Europeans and Japanese. What I do see is that companies that fail to lift a finger will go down like the Titanic - hey at least they have focus, and new companies/countries/individuals will emerge to take over the vaccuum, much like the forward thinking Japanese companies like Toyota and Honda, who have spent years *seriously* investing in alternative energies, while the Big 3 were counting their $10K profits on every Explorer sold.

  21. Thank you sir, your check is in the mail! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful
    Yes, I've heard that story before. Interestingly, the oil companies, during the 70s, tried a similar tactic to avoid making unleaded gas, funding various scientific studies, questioning the evidence, saying that it wasn't possible, it would destroy the economy, and otherwise spreading all manner of confusion.

    The trick is to figure out who the blind folk are (Michael Crichton, famous science fiction author), any "scientific" reports written or edited by oil lobbyists, vs. the 99% of top scientists who *agree* on global warming.

    1. Re:Thank you sir, your check is in the mail! by bhiestand · · Score: 1
      the 99% of top scientists who *agree* on global warming.

      Seeing as how all believers judge a scientist's worth by whether or not he agrees with global warming, you can just go ahead and claim "100% of top scientists". We really don't expect anything better out of your crowd...

      And when are the oil companies going to pay ME for writing this stuff? I've been buying their gas for years now...
      --
      SWM seeks new sig for a brief fling
    2. Re:Thank you sir, your check is in the mail! by Alsee · · Score: 1

      Seeing as how all believers judge a scientist's worth by whether or not he agrees with global warming, you can just go ahead and claim "100% of top scientists". We really don't expect anything better out of your crowd

      Ok, how about we define scientists as...

      the American Association of State Climatologists
      or
      the American Meteorological Society
      or
      the American Geophysical Union
      or
      the Geological Society of London
      or
      the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
      or
      the Brazil National Academy of Science
      or
      the Canada National Academy of Science
      or
      the China National Academy of Science
      or
      the France National Academy of Science
      or
      the Germany National Academy of Science
      or
      the India National Academy of Science
      or
      the Italy National Academy of Science
      or
      the Japan National Academy of Science
      or
      the Russia National Academy of Science
      or
      the United Kingdom National Academy of Science
      or
      the United States National Academy of Science

      All of which have stated the scientific consensus on Global Warming. The number of scientists who fundamentally dissagree with the Global Warming consensus is vanishingly small.

      The Summary Report of the World Climate Change Conference reads "An overwhelming majority of the scientific community has accepted its general conclusions that climate change is occurring, is primarily a result of human emissions"

      December 2004 issue of Science published an analysis of 928 abstracts of papers from refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, with the keywords "global climate change". 75% were found to either explicitly or implicitly accept the consensus Global Warming position; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate and thus took no position on current anthropogenic climate change; and none of the abstracts disagreed with the consensus position, which the author found to be "remarkable".

      There is no dispute that atmospheric CO2 levels have skyrocketed in recent years (here's a good graph). There is no dispute that the surge in CO2 levels is due to the the burning of fossil fuels. There is no dispute that the earth is *currently* heated by 33C (91F) degrees due to *normal* greenhouse levels and effects. There is no dispute that the average earth temperature has increased over the last several decades. There is no dispute that the icecaps and glaciers and ancient permafrost have all been melting at an astounding rate.

      The debate has turned strictly to how much human activity has already increased the average temperature, over exactly the other effects are, and attempting to predict what sorts of change changes it will cause in the future, and how big and how disruptive those changes will be.

      It is absolutely no way that humans boosting CO2 levels by 50% (and the various other greehouse gasses) could somehow magically not have any effect at all.

      If we know that mercury in food causes heath problems, and if we know that we are dumping tons of mercury into the sea at a rapidly increasing rate, and if mercurly levels in the fish we are catching and eating is rapidly skyrocketing to unpercidented levels, the question is no longer whether we are poisoning ourselves. The scientific questions are then how much are we posioning ourselves, how much worse will it get if we keep increasing the rate of mercury dumping into the ocean, and what what other effects it is having. The political questions are then whether it is a enough problem that we should do something about it, and if so what we should do about it.

      -

      --
      - - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
  22. Re:You fucking scientists, that's what you get for by Geoffreyerffoeg · · Score: 1

    I'm not sure if my vocabulary was wrong or we're just using different terms. You're saying "acceleration", which is just dv/dt, and yes, the integral to infinity of any positive function dv/dt gives v_final=infinity. I used "force", which has a factor of gamma, right? Or does Newton's Second stay even under relativity?

    If you let one object (gravitationally or magnetically) attract another object, the classical force between them approaches infinity. But they don't reach FTL speeds, do they? Force contracts at relativistic speeds, right?

  23. Problems and Solutions by Shihar · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Whole globalism is not all rosy and great, one nice side effect of globalism is that the more liberal European laws become defacto American laws and vice versa.

    One company I interviewed at made specialized batteries in the US. For years, their batteries contained lead and some other more nasty chemicals. The EU passed some laws that in effect banned this company from selling their batteries while they had these chemicals. They explained to me that one of the major projects they were working on was redesigning their batteries so that they could be sold in EU again. In fact, they anticipated more such laws in the EU and the US and so were making a big push to go green.

    It might be a small consolation, but it shows that America is not the end all be all when it comes to environmental law.

    Some other hopeful signs is that all Western nations have started pumping substantial amounts of money into nanotechnology and energy research in both the public and private sector. While I would like to see more money diverted to these fields, we have a pretty fair start.

    I am not saying that the future is safe and secure. In fact, if we don't get our shit together quickly I think that the third world is going to suffer horribly for our slow response in finding solutions. A Katrina stings the US, but it absolutely destroys third world nations that are much more susceptible to natural disasters. While neither the tsunami nor the Pakistani earthquake were caused by human actions, they shows the absolute devastation that natural disasters wracked on third world nations. The Pakistan earthquake in particular shows how an event that would be an irritation for a western nation can kill hundreds of thousands of people in less developed nations. To this day Pakistan is still reeling from the effects of the quake as more people die from the ability to provide shelter for the hundreds of thousands of refugees that it created.

    1. Re:Problems and Solutions by sl3xd · · Score: 1
      It might be a small consolation, but it shows that America is not the end all be all when it comes to environmental law.


      Where, exactly, did you get the idea that America has great environmental laws? Few Americans have such illusions...
      --
      -- Sometimes you have to turn the lights off in order to see.
    2. Re:Problems and Solutions by CFTM · · Score: 1

      I think the parent was more attempting to say that although the US may not actively change because of a global economy, environmental laws in other parts of the world have affects on the companies that produce products sold in America; although those batteries arn't illegal in the US they are in the EU so it made economic sense to develop a battery that did not contain those materials and sold them in the US.

    3. Re:Problems and Solutions by sl3xd · · Score: 1

      That makes a lot more sense.

      --
      -- Sometimes you have to turn the lights off in order to see.
  24. Methane not the 2nd most powerful greenhouse gas by adoll · · Score: 1
    I was at a presentation a couple of months ago where one of Environment Canada's senior climatologists made the observation that CO2 is the second most powerful greenhouse gas, and methane is the third. The most important (in terms of affecting the atmosphere's ability to retain heat) is water vapour.

    This sits well with anyone who has ever spent a winter in the Canadian prairies. Cloudy nights are "warm", say -5 degrees C, whereas clear nights are cold, like -25 degrees C.

    So we have to ban that dihydrogen monoxide stuff.

  25. huh? by FlacoFuerte · · Score: 0
    are efforts to fight global warming by planting forests actually harming the environment?"
    Efforts to plant forests to fight global warming? When did this happen? Last time I checked any forest thats planted is done so just to cut it down for timber, nothing to do with fighting global warming.
  26. Don't kill all plants just yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It is still likely that a plant that emits methane more than compensates for the amount of methane it releases by sucking up twenty times as much carbon dioxide.

  27. Not just the dog anymore! by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

    "Honey, it wasn't me! I swear it was the rotodendren!"

    --
    I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
  28. Lungs of the Earth by ozTravman · · Score: 1

    The Amazon rainforest, sometimes referred to as the Lungs of the Earth, uses more oxygen than it produces. Rotting trees and plant products requires a large amount of oxygen.

  29. Ad hominem attacks by jgardn · · Score: 1

    You are demonstrating why ad-hominem attacks are fundamentally weak. Whether I am male or female, black, white, red, or yellow, whether I am married or single, old or young, smart or stupid, and dare I say, Democrat or Republican, is completely irrelevant to the arguments I make. You are in the business, I assume, of trying to convince others of your point of view. Try to be more persuasive.

    When you start your arguments with "My opponent is a fool", you are suddenly no longer arguing a counterpoint, and your opponent wins the day. When you do this, it sounds like you have no solid rebuttal. Remember the saying in law school: "When you have the facts on your side, cite the facts. Otherwise, pound the table." It sounds like you are pounding the table, so people assume you don't have the facts on your side.

    My assertion was that no one has shown me definitively that there even is a phenomena called global warming, nor that CO2 is responsible for it.

    Your argument says that I am stupid and that trees are carbon sinks and that the US is responsible for destroying the world (including Bush) through global warming. Oh, and by the way, you said that the "elites" don't care for you or me. These are all fascinating arguments, but my original question remains unanswered to this day.

    You seem very convinced that global warming is a real phenonema and that CO2 emissions are the root cause. I assume, by logical corollary, that you are advocating that Global Warming is bad, but you have not proven that point either. I imagine you are one of the crowd that thinks we should stop driving cars, because the cost of driving a car (global warming) outweighs the benefits.

    Tell me, why do you believe that global warming is occuring? Why are you certain that CO2 and not some other chemical or process (sun's radiation, earth's internal heat) is to blame? And why is global warming bad? Show me the cost/benefit analysis of global warming and driving my car, and show that it is advantageous for me to stop driving my car?

    Now, stop thumping the table and calling me names, and start addressing my arguments.

    --
    The radical sect of Islam would either see you dead or "reverted" to Islam.
    1. Re:Ad hominem attacks by ralphclark · · Score: 1

      Regarding global warming - I doubt anybody has the time or inclination to bring the 25 years of painstakingly collected evidence round to your house and spoonfeed it to you. Go see for yourself. By this point anybody who *still* doesn't get it is either just not actively looking in any scientifically reputable place and getting their information only from state-sanctioned or corporate-establishment-managed sources, or else they have seen the data and are just too conceptually disabled to draw the obvious conclusions. There comes a point when healthy skepticism ceases being skepticism and becomes obstinate stupidity. It's your responsibility and no-one else's.

      It should surely tell you something, to realize that for virtually everybody else (including the scientific community) the debate moved on long ago (it's no longer about whether global warming is real, or whether the biggest contributor is the energy consumption of industrialized societies; it's now only about damage limitation). Looking at it empirically, virtually the only "skeptics" left are those of a right wing persuasion within your own country. This strongly implies that the nonbelief that you subscribe to can only survive as part of the particular constellation of memes that go under the label "US Conservative". Which in turn strongly implies that the only information you are taking in is from your peers in that group, ruling out any possibility of education or enlightenment. So I did know, when I wrote that very mildly ad-hominem diatribe, that I would convince you of nothing directly. I do know what a reasoned argument looks like and I can't do it for such a complex subject in thirty minutes especially when the only adversaries left are completely entrenched. But it was still worth a shot in that I might shame you into investigating the subject *properly* for yourself. If you still can that is, if you even have the intellectual equipment to help you tell the difference between a significant experimental observation on the one hand and a meaningless bit of establishment-sponsored smoke and mirrors on the other. I don't really know how hard this is for non-scientists. I suspect hard. For the sociopolitically indoctrinated, harder still and maybe downright impossible.

      In any event, and this explains my bad mood this past couple of days, I am far less worried now about the knock-on effects of global warming than I am about "Peak Oil" wihch I am ashamed to say only just hit my radar very recently. For most people lucky enough to know what "comfort zone" means this will have a much more shocking and easily graspable impact than climate change. Not to mention permanent, and inescapable, and ever worsening, and already appearing on the horizon right now. There's little comfort to be had in the knowledge that it will force the people of the US (along with everyone else) to cut their consumption drastically in a way that Kyoto couldn't. In a sense, for those not immediately threatened global warming is yesterday's news - but the harsh winters and hurricanes and floods and droughts and disappearance of coastal areas that come with it will only make a post-Peak Oil world harder for the unlucky survivors to deal with.

    2. Re:Ad hominem attacks by ralphclark · · Score: 1

      Tell you what, I will give you this one thing:

      Ice carries various substances suspended in frozen bubbles and in solution. Some of those substances can be used to date the ice fairly accurately. And some of those substances are greenhouse gases like CO2. Deep cores of polar ice have revealed the concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide at various points in the past.

      Now Google for the following terms: polar ice cores CO2 OR "carbon dioxide".

      The top link:

      http://www.daviesand.com/Choices/Precautionary_Pla nning/New_Data/

      If you cant be bothered here is a short summary of what you would learn if you did:

      At the beginning of the industrial age about 150 years ago the concentration of atmospheric CO2 started rising faster than at any other time in the past 420,000 years and it has continued to rise at that rate ever since then. Not only that, it is now 130% higher than at any previous time in the past 420,000 years. You can also see how atmospheric CO2 fluctuations have always been positively correlated with temperature throughout that entire period except that during the industrial age the CO2 has risen so fast that the temperature hasn't caught up yet.

      That's it.

      If you are having trouble "seeing" the data in the graph, here is a hint. Ignore the five roughly saw-tooth peaks that occupy all those hundreds of millennia. They are just the interglacial periods. Instead look at the very extreme right hand edge of the graph where the red line goes absolutely VERTICAL hugging the edge of the graph representing a rate of increase faster than anywhere else on the graph. That line is where the data points for the past 150 years are. Also note that this is the only place where the red line reaches so high up the graph.

      Note that this is graph shows an accumulation of data from similar experiments repeated over and over again by different teams of researchers with different ice cores, with broadly the same findings in each case.

      So just looking at the graph alone you can see that CO2 levels have been increasing at an *unprecedented* rate ever since we started burning fossil fuels on an industrial scale, and they now greatly exceed any of the historical fluctuations provided by nature (or preindustrial man) before that. But read the text for a fairly balanced analysis.

      Draw your own conclusions.

  30. I have researched it by jgardn · · Score: 1

    I have research the global warming issue, carefully and studiously. There are not answers to most of the questions I pose. It's sad really. They are very basic questions. I can tell you all about the fundamental theories of physics and how they work in a matter of minutes. But you cannot, in thirty minutes time, answer a single of my simple questions. Isn't that odd?

    25 years is not enough data to make any determinations, especially data collected so poorly and used so poorly.

    We are not collecting enough data even during those 25 years to understand what the average temperature is and whether it is increasing.

    The sun has far more impact on our atmosphere's temperature than any other factor.

    The cost of limiting CO2 output is FAR greater than the cost of Global Warming.

    And Global Warming would be a good thing, because it would turn Africa BACK into a rain forest, ending most of the starvation and disease there, and cause Europe's glaciers to recede, allowing people to grow wheat in the northern parts again.

    I have also investigated why Global Warming is even so touted. Note that the forces behind Global Warming issue are not all or even most scientists. Most scientists don't care or don't know. I couldn't find one physicist at my university that "believed" in it and thought anything important of it. They were more concerned about nuclear war, not what kind of car they drive. The one professor who was investigating global warming was doing it because the government was giving money to him to do it, nothing more or less. The scientists that get behind global warming are not ones I have reason to respect anyway. I've read their papers, and they are not very thorough. Heck, a BS Physics guy can poke holes in their arguments on the first reading.

    The Global Warming movement is powered by the old communists. It is a move to neutralize the US, not save the world. Hence, the Kyoto Protocols that harms the world's cleanest nation and NET CONSUMER of carbon in the atmosphere, and leaves the worst offenders and net producers of carbon in the atmosphere alone. Global Warming is about trying to convince Americans to stop being so productive, and give Europe and the old Soviet Union a chance to be superpowers again.

    And the other conclusion I came to: The communists haven't gone away. They put on environmentalist clothing and are trying to advocate communism from that pedastal. If you can't see that, you're blind and believe whatever is published in the New York Times.

    That's the conclusion I came to after careful study.

    Next time you see a global warming article, go find the research paper and read it yourself. Question it thoroughly like a real scientist. Then go find other papers by the same scientist and read them as well. Ask yourself: Is this scientist neutral, or do they seem to have an agenda? Who is paying for their research? Who is reviewing it? Who is publishing it? (Nature, for the most part, has been shown to lack basic controls on what gets published and has turned into a political pedastal and is no longer worthy of being considered a science periodical.) For instance, if PETA publishes an paper that says that milk causes cancer, I wouldn't believe it anymore than Phillip-Morris publishing a paper saying cigarettes don't.

    Be more like Einstein; stop following the herd and question fundamental yet unproven assumptions.

    --
    The radical sect of Islam would either see you dead or "reverted" to Islam.
  31. Ice Cores by jgardn · · Score: 1
    Interesting. Go re-read the second and third paragraph. Here it is in layman's terms.

    We don't know whether greenhouse gasses cause global warming, are an effect of global warming, or just happen to rise and fall together. We don't know how much the greenhouse gasses actually caused the earth to warm or cool, or how much was due to changes in the orbit or changes in the sun. But we're just going to pretend that greenhouse gasses are causing it because, hey, that's what everyone else is saying and we don't want to rock the boat.


    Now, let me introduce a few ways to fool with the results. I'm surprised they didn't mention in the paper how to guard against this.

    I could be a scientist handling the ice core samples and leave some samples out for longer than another. This would allow more gas to leech out. At what rate do the gasses leech out? Do some gasses leech out faster than others? Probably. But leaving them out for a while would also allow gasses in the atmosphere to leech in.

    They also calibrated the gas measuring device using a mixture of nitrogen, oxygen, and CO2. If we wanted to get a different result, we could toy with the calibration.

    There are a couple of assumptions they have been making, one of which was found to be incorrect. How old is the gas compared to the age of the ice it was found in? They used to think it was 6,000yrs. But someone found out it was actually closer to 6,000yrs, give or take a few hundred years. But that is only for the coldest periods. How did gas and ice accumulate in the warmer periods? No mention of this.

    They made another interesting assumption in determining the historical temperatures of the samples. They assumed that the levels of O18 (isotope, not chemical) and D (deuterium) were related to the temperature. I can't find any reference to why this would be so.

    The pretty graph on the page is missing one import feature: Error bars. I don't see any. Without error bars, I can't tell if the data is significant at all. Just the fact that they left out error bars means they either don't understand the science of measurements and modelling, or they do and are trying to hide the fact that the error is +/- 10 degreed C and 100 ppmv. In fact, just by data collected by other scientists, it says to me that the data is not good within 3 or 4 degrees C. And they have a friendly note on the bottom of the graph: Wider lines means more data, not more variability.

    When physicists do something like measure the charge or mass of an electron, they have serious discussions over whether something is 5.000001 or 5.000002. If Scientist A said 5.000001 +/- 0.0000003, and Scientist B gets 5.000002 +/- 0.0000003, then we throw both results out until we discover what A or B (or both) did wrong. In the meantime, we put footnotes in our textbooks: Use 5.0000 +/- 0.00001 just to be on the safe side. Variations outside of the range of error are not tolerated. Why do you tolerate variations in people's assessment of the historical temperature?

    Oh, and I can't find any documentation or reasoning on how they know the age of the ice or the air. That's odd... You'd think the most important part of their research would be mentioned somewhere.
    --
    The radical sect of Islam would either see you dead or "reverted" to Islam.
    1. Re:Ice Cores by ralphclark · · Score: 1

      1. This is a summary not an original paper, if you want discussion of methodology and estimated accuracy & precision then go to the original sources and follow-up papers. It's in appropriate to pick holes in the methodology when you need to be reading something else entirely to get the facts on that.

      2. This is a balanced scientific report. The paragraph you pointed out just shows honest scientists doing their job. They are not attempting to explain the mechanism, only reporting the basic data in a way that is easily digestible. That's why I picked this one to show you - it's as clear and "to the point" as you can get.

      Under these circumstances it is very easy to cherry-pick the paragraph including the disclaimers and ignore the actual results themselves. Which is what you have done. You have pointed out every aspect of the paper except the actual result itself. There is a name for this - it is called "intellectual dishonesty". There is another name for it as well. It is called "wasting my time".

      Guess what - this isn't some sort of college debate or a political game, this is the fate of your world. But you'd rather pick dishonest arguments built on simple fallacies, than spend one moment trying to discern the truth. Some people just don't want to be helped. No surprise I guess - in your other post you didnt even attempt to answer my point that your position is held only by people of your political stripe, i.e. the position you are taking is a political one not a scientific one. This is plainly ludicrous - you can't win a scientific argument by making a political one, and you can't learn the truth if you only listen to people who agree with you and label everybody else a "communist". Jesus - what fucking century do you think you are in?

      In the end it comes down to the numbers, but the US right is an isolated and rapidly diminishing minority on the global warming issue. I'm through wasting time with you. You deserve to choke on your own shit - and you will - and it will be nobody's fault but your own. Good riddance.

    2. Re:Ice Cores by jgardn · · Score: 1

      That's the problem: THE ACTUAL RESULT HAS NO ERROR BARS. Who's being intellectually dishonest, the scientist who fails to disclose the error in their results, or the critic who questions them? Why do you think it is that physicists can explain the mass of an electron to a very high degree of precision, when leading scientists in the environmental movement had a major shift from global cooling to warming 30 years ago? Why do you even believe people who claimed that humanity would be wiped out 20 years ago when the obvious result is that we are stronger, more vibrant, and better-fed than ever? The bottom line is the whole field stinks to high-heaven, and a careful investigation by any honest scientist will reveal why.

      You claim the fate of the world is at stake. If that is so, then the scientists should be even more careful with how they present their results, and should be doubly sure they mislead no one with results THAT HAVE NO ERROR BARS and propose suppositions as fact. (As I outlined, they did so in their summary. At least they were honest about being dishonest in this regard.)

      I have also shown you the facts. Do some basic research on the scientists who are preaching the destruction of the world through industrialization. Guess what? They hold America accountable and let India, China, and Russia off the hook. They release paper after paper, many of which are questionable. They rush to the microphones and cameras before their papers are fully reviewed. They have an obvious agenda, obvious to anyone with an open mind. They are advocating the destruction of the free-market economy for one that is run by government officials who think they are smarter than everyone else. THAT'S COMMUNISM. Just because it isn't popular to accuse people of trying to destroy our country through lies and subversion and over-regulation doesn't mean it isn't true.

      I'm being factual and honest. It's you who won't see the obvious facts.

      --
      The radical sect of Islam would either see you dead or "reverted" to Islam.
    3. Re:Ice Cores by ralphclark · · Score: 1

      > I'm being factual and honest. It's you who won't see the obvious facts.

      Your asserting that doesn't actually make it true. Your paranoid remarks about the motivations of some nebulous group of scientists are subjective and lacking in any real content. Your point about error bars: the comparison with fundamental phhsics is spurious because we *need* to know the mass of the electron to an astounding degree of accuracy, but with this ice core data even an error of a few percent would hardly invalidate the pattern that emerges from it. If it were any more than that somebody would have noticed by now. This work has been extensively peer-reviewed and the results corroborated by independent teams.

      The style of argument you present here is highly reminiscent of the desperate nitpicking employed by tobacco company scientists back when they were trying to argue that smoking doesn't cause lung cancer. Nobody is fooled.

      Look I've dealt with your sort before, where every disagreement somehow means I must be a "communist" (rolls eyes skyward) - that sort of namecalling really doesn't do you or your argument any credit. But it does signal clearly that I'm wasting my time with you. Fine, believe what you want because you are in a tiny and dwindling minority and I surely don't need to convince you personally of anything.

  32. Long-Term Storage & Biofuel by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's true that most plants are not a long-term solution, but plantations of moderately fast growing trees could be. They can grow and store carbon for decades to centuries, and then be harvested, at least buying us a little time along with other solutions. Probably not ideal, but still a net sequestration. Then we have efforts to produce biodiesel from algae - not carbon storage, but something that would cycle carbon already in the atmosphere and allow a reduction in fossil carbon emission. Obviously there's not going to be one cure, at least for the foreseeable future, but there are several approaches that together could make a dent.

  33. Error bars absolutely critical by jgardn · · Score: 1

    What exactly is the error in their reading? You say a few percent. Then why do the numbers disagree so much with other experiments trying to find the same data? Why do we see a period where the numbers vary almost 2 degrees C? If we discovered that, and the error was assumed to be 2%, well, then something has gone terribly wrong. There is some assumption being made that is not correct and it must be discovered and replaced with a more correct assumption.

    My comparison to the mass of an electron is that when physicists show they results they are extremely careful to include error in their calculations to prevent the possibility of someone else coming along, performing a different experiment, and obtaining a completeld different result, and then totally discrediting the original work. It's called being careful because the worst thing that can happen is to be found out to have been utterly wrong with no other explanation than being foolish.

    Let's talk about communism. Go ahead and roll your eyes. Your type rolled their eyes when some very observant people talked about the possibilities of massive terror attacks in America. That's okay. People who see an understand the threats need to address them appropriately.

    When environmentalists come out and say, "Hey, this earth thingy is warming up", they always tack on the following statements.

    1. This is bad.

    2. The US is to blame, not China or Russia or anyone else. Just the US.

    3. If only the US would stop driving their cars / stop being productive, we wouldn't have this problem.

    A capitalist would respond to the basic concept of global warming as follows:

    1. We don't know if this is bad or good.

    2. We don't know if anyone is to blame. However, rather than pointing fingers, we should address real problems as they arise, and carefully weight the cost/benefit of each action we take. (Putting millions of people out of work is probably more damaging to the earth than losing a few thousand acres of tundra.)

    3. When and if we face real challenges due to global warming, our only real hope to overcome them, or even reverse the damage, is through the free market.

    When's the last time you read an article by a "leading" scientist who said that the free market will come up with ideal solutions for any problem we face? Never. Never does any of the leading scientists in the global warming advocate anything but communist, government-imposed, restrictive and anti-freedom solutions. Hence, they are communists.

    --
    The radical sect of Islam would either see you dead or "reverted" to Islam.
    1. Re:Error bars absolutely critical by ralphclark · · Score: 1

      1. Ask the residents of New Orleans if climate change is bad.

      2. We know that greenhouse gases will cause global warming. The question would have been how much and how fast. However we have been overtaken by events. Totally apart from the ice core data we have measurements of ocean temperature over a period of time, and we also have data on ice melting at the poles. We know the oceans are warming up. A reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, which are substantially larger than anything before industrial civilisation, would obviously help. Is it all the US's fault? No. But:

      3. The US is the worlds largest fossil fuel consumer, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter and also the largest in both categories per capita. Getting the US on side is pretty much essential. We will also need to recruit China and India before too long but while they are substantially behind the US and Europe economically it would be irrational to expect them to abandon their dreams of wealth when they can still see us guzzling down the oil like we don't give a damn. The US simply must be convinced to participate before it's too late or we are all *sunk*.

      The free market is great for many things I 100% agree. But there are some things it can't solve because it's not very good at solving problems that require restraint, it's not very good a solving problems that require mutual co-operation, and it's hopeless at solving problems that require voluntary sacrifice. In fact it should also be obvious to you that the free market can only work as long as there are resources to consume.

      You are trying to substitute capitalism for common sense. But there is no ideology devised that can replace common sense. Ideology == limited thinking.

    2. Re:Error bars absolutely critical by jgardn · · Score: 1

      1. Ask the residents of New Orleans if climate change is bad.

      The hurricanes weren't caused by global warming. No scientist is saying that. In fact, if I recall correctly, meteorologists said the exact opposite after the hurricanes hit.

      We don't understand exactly how the global temperature affects the number of hurricanes produced each year and their severity. We do know that corrupt governments that waste the taxpayer's money intended to reinforce ancient levies do cause major disasters, however.

      Concerning points 2 and 3:

      No, we DON'T know greenhouse gasses cause global warming. We THINK we know, but we don't. A lot of people say they know, but they aren't scientists. A lot of scientists say one of the causes of global warming COULD be greenhouse gasses, but they can't say for sure if they are being honest.

      The US is NOT the largest emitter of greenhouse gasses. That honor goes to Russia and China. The US is actually a net SINK of carbon in the atmosphere because we have more trees to consume CO2 than we produce from industry.

      Why is the US hooked on oil? Because it is the only natural resource that can power the engines of economy. Can you name any other substance that is naturally occurring that when delivered to the furthest corners of the nation still deliver more energy than it cost to deliver? Only oil, coal, and a few other substances can do this, but oil is far better than the others, and far cheaper to refine to the highly energy-dense gasoline our cars use. Any country that wants to have televisions, cheap food, and the amenities of civilization MUST use oil to do so. There is no other way.

      I'm not trying to substance capitalism for common sense. Capitalism IS common sense. If global warming truly is a problem that affects everyone, then they will pay the necessary price to overcome it. What you asking the US to do by abandoning oil is to give up EVERYTHING we have so that we have a few more days of winter each year. Does that make sense? No!

      --
      The radical sect of Islam would either see you dead or "reverted" to Islam.
    3. Re:Error bars absolutely critical by ralphclark · · Score: 1
      Why is the US hooked on oil? Because it is the only natural resource that can power the engines of economy. Can you name any other substance that is naturally occurring that when delivered to the furthest corners of the nation still deliver more energy than it cost to deliver? Only oil, coal, and a few other substances can do this, but oil is far better than the others, and far cheaper to refine to the highly energy-dense gasoline our cars use. Any country that wants to have televisions, cheap food, and the amenities of civilization MUST use oil to do so. There is no other way

      Global Peak Oil. And when oil becomes too expensive to use for most of those things? This has already started and will be undeniable within 5-10 years

      I'm not trying to substance capitalism for common sense. Capitalism IS common sense. If global warming truly is a problem that affects everyone, then they will pay the necessary price to overcome it. What you asking the US to do by abandoning oil is to give up EVERYTHING we have so that we have a few more days of winter each year. Does that make sense? No!

      Global Peak Oil. You will not be able to afford the necessary price. It is elementary economics. If oil extraction is declining at 3% per year and demand fuelled by economic growth is growing at 3% per year, what do you think will happen to the price? Did you think somebody would just keep going "oh look, there's some more". Fact is that within the next two years it is estimated that we will have used up 50% of all the oil there ever was. And that was the half that was easy to get out of the ground. The remaining half of the oil will put up a fight and be increasingly expensive to get at. And it will be the heavy, sulfurated stuff, the light sweet crude which floats on top will be all gone. At some point during the coming 50 years we reach a break even point where it costs more energy to extract the remaining, poorer quality oil than you can release by burning it.

  34. What does this have to do with my original points? by jgardn · · Score: 1

    What does this have to do with my original point, which was that I can't find any real evidence of global warming, just a bunch of shoddy reporting on incomplete research articles?

    I am not in the oil industry, but from what I can tell (ANWR) the lack of oil has more to do with the US government forbidding the extraction of newly found oil sites and less to do with there actually being less oil. In fact, I've read several articles saying that some oil sites in Louisiana have filled up again, and they are extracting from the same sites again.

    Have you heard about the theories that oil isn't a fossil fuel, but is generated by geothermic processes? The Russians have used this theory to find new and abundant oil sources. Some Americans are catching on.

    What you are told about oil in the mass media is not the truth about oil.

    --
    The radical sect of Islam would either see you dead or "reverted" to Islam.
  35. Re:What does this have to do with my original poin by ralphclark · · Score: 1

    I dont get my information from the mass media, not without corroborating it from more reliable sources.

    That crackpot theory about oil not being a fossil fuel smells like horseshit to me. The Russians are always at this crazy stuff. Twenty years ago you would have been all about how full of crap they were. But its the same crazy shit now that it was back then.