Slashdot Mirror
Robert X. Cringely Weighs in on 2006
Simon80 writes "With the beginning of a new year coming another set of 15 predictions from Robert X. Cringely as to how the tech world will shape up in 2006, preceded by a review of how his 2005 predictions turned out. Most of this year's predictions cover well known tech companies, with a few that are about specific technologies like WiMax, media center PCs, and VOIP."
Sounds like he expects '06 to see properietary gain on OSS. Thats a prediction that I both think is false, but also, for the sake of the computing world as a whole, hope proves false. 2006 (imho) actually does have the potential to be a great year for the linux desktop, assuming that a big hardware company (Dell, HP, anyone) gives it a chance (a novice-oriented linux desktop like Linspire has the potential to get users aquainted w/ OSS and GNU/Linux, and allows them to easily move on up to more advanced distros). Lets hope '06 doesn't live up to Cringely's expectations.
Google will continue to roll out new products and services as it builds out its infrastructure for a huge push in 2007. They'll need money, of course, so I predict a supplemental stock offering timed with a 20-to-1 stock split.
I already know this one is wrong. Page believes in keeping the stock priced out of the range of the average investor as a way of preventing the company from becoming too focused on the individual quarterly returns. They're not splitting, plain and simple.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
Between 5 and 15 Million units of the One Laptop per child is supposed to ship in 2006 getting ready for 100-150Mu in 2007. I think he should have mentioned the expected succes or failure of this program. If successful it will make Linux the #1 client OS, surpassing Windows and totally change the tech dynamics in 2/3 of the world. FYI 2005 shipments of Laptops was 42MU.
Help fight continental drift.
Ubuntu
4) Enough about Apple. Google will continue to roll out new products and services as it builds out its infrastructure for a huge push in 2007. They'll need money, of course, so I predict a supplemental stock offering timed with a 20-to-1 stock split. 2006 is a building year for Google.
I don't know on this one. By coincidence I was recently coddling, Yesh my preciousisess, my worn copy of Security Analysis: Principles and Technique by Benjamin Graham, David L. Dodd, Sidney Cottle, Charles Tatham. This is the goto book on investment fundamentals, that guy Warrant Buffy, or something like that, you know the guy who owns the Hathaway shirt company, learned the basics of investment from this book. IMHO there is no way to go about investing without first coming to terms with the knowledge contained in 'Security Analysis: Principles and Technique'. But I'm unsure as to how B. Graham would have parsed Google stocks. In 60's parlance Google would be a go-go stock and might have been shunned by Graham. Also I'm unsure as to Buffet's take on Google. Does the Berkshire Hathaway fund hole any Google stock? Maybe Google will split when the Berkshire Hathaway fund splits. :)
"Academicians are more likely to share each other's toothbrush than each other's nomenclature."
Cohen
all information that has been on the rumor sites for months.
2) The reason Apple changed its MacWorld announcements at the last minute was because the company sued little Burst.com a few days before, trying to invalidate the Burst patents. But since Apple sued Burst, Burst shares have gone UP by 30 percent. The market is rarely wrong. Suing Burst was an enormous mistake for Apple, casting a pall on their video strategy and potentially costing the company strategic alliances with networks and movie studios. Apple realizes this now and is struggling internally to find a way to change course and put a positive spin on the course correction. Apple will lose and Burst will win, and Apple won't be able to afford to wait for the courts to decide anything, since time is critical in staking out Internet video turf. I predict that Apple will eventually take a license from Burst, that is UNLESS SOME OTHER COMPANY (Google? Real? Yahoo?) doesn't snatch up Burst first.
mmmmaybe. but would apple jeapordise their macworld address in this timeline? do the head and the tail not talk anymore? doubtful..
3) But Apple WILL make some inroads against Microsoft. The new Intel Macs will run Windows XP unofficially, and Apple Support acknowledges that they are only days from running XP officially, too. So Apple finally has a solid argument why Windows-centric companies and homes should consider trying a Mac. The best case, though, says that Apple sells an additional million units, which aren't enough for Steve Jobs, so I see him going into a kind of stealth competition with Microsoft.
old news. been beaten here and on other websites to death.
4) Enough about Apple. Google will continue to roll out new products and services as it builds out its infrastructure for a huge push in 2007. They'll need money, of course, so I predict a supplemental stock offering timed with a 20-to-1 stock split. 2006 is a building year for Google.
bzzt! i doubt the google split will happen. they have lost traction on a few efforts last year, and are supposedly growing. diversity growth != profit ergo != rising stock prices.
5) Still no good news for Sun. Those Galaxy servers are very nice, but they aren't enough to support the company and Eric Schmidt is too smart (I hope) to bail out his old firm.
man. i hear a lot of fish in that barrel. sun has been on the hardware ropes for what, 3 years now?
6) IBM will get in trouble with its customers as it becomes clear that Sam Palmisano didn't learn much, if anything, from Lou Gerstner. Gerstner's fat-cutting is long forgotten, so all IBM knows how to cut these days is customer service.
*shrug* IBM is cost competitive in the low end.. they seem to be making money and are still on the short list of "laptops that just work"
7) Microsoft still sucks at security and users suffer for it. My best guess is they are planning on putting all this new technology in the "next" operating system, which seems to be yet another year behind schedule. The important question the world will soon be asking -- "Do we need another Windows operating system?" In 2006, Windows XP gets another service pack and/or facelift. Nothing more.
ZzZZzzzZZ... oh sorry you were saying something?
8) Sony's PS3 hits the market with a dearth of games. Howard Stringer loses his job, not because of the game problems but because he's undermined by the Japanese parts of his company. But there is good news for Sony, too. Interne
Is that because
a) you are surprised he knows enough about anything to actually do something right
b) you are impressed that he knows how to spell RADAR properly
c) you think he is wrong and he shouldn't have used all-caps?
Technically RADAR stands for RAdio Direction And Ranging and should be in all caps, but it's so commonly used nowadays that maybe it's considered a normal word.
All I want is a secure system where it's easy to do anything I want. Is that too much to ask ~~ Randall Munroe
His predictions aren't as vague and common sense as you make them out to be:
"I was right when I said AMD would give Intel further fits.
Two huge companies in dead competition would give each other fits? Obviously that is bound to happen on some degree over the course of the year. Also, he never really defined "fits", just some kind of conflict that is bound to happen when two major corporations are competing in the same market."
How can you assume that they would continue to be competitive throughout the next year? What if one makes a huge blunder and the other pulls ahead? What if one comes out with a great new product and thoroughly trounces the other's sales? If you knew they were going to remain competetive into the next year, you have forsight into the future that many would envy.
" I predicted the RIAA would continue to sue music lovers and they have, despite the fact that it doesn't help anyone and actually hurts everyone to do so.
What would the RIAA do, stop suing?"
Well, why wouldn't they? It's totally ineffective and is creating immense public hostility towards the RIAA. A lot of people are saying it's a bad-blood campaign of greedy music execs who have an outdated business model and can't adapt to the future. From a purely business perspective, it's a huge mistake.
" I don't know of any other way to prosecute violators of copyright law besides offing them like the mafia. Again vague and full of common sense. "
Usually the idea of a business is to make money, not become some quasi-vigilante prosecuting organzation. How about they concentrate on increasing sales and adapting to new media instead of suing their customers? (I know the RIAA isn't a business itself, but it does claim to represent the indusry). Again, if you knew that the RIAA were going to continue to pursue this foolhardy strategy, you have a line to the Fates that few others have.
I would like to hear your vague, common-sense predictions for 2006.
Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.
-- Pablo Picasso
Let me make an addendum. I don't think Cringely's predictions are vague. They are black-and-white -- either "Status Quo" or "Change". In the examples you listed, Cringely correctly predicted "Status Quo" for both Intel/AMD competition and the RIAA suing people. (Sure, you can make this predictions by flipping a coin, but if Cringely gave reasons for why he thought the status quo would continue, it shows he understands what's actually going on, instead of happening to be right by chance. )
;)
If this predictions are so easy to make because they are based on common sense, I would like to see your predictions for the future. Pick out two or three issues or events going on today, and choose either "Status Quo" or "Change". Also give the reasons why you made your choice -- then next year we will know if you won or lost by chance or your understanding of the situation. If you are feeling extra common-sensical, you could predict exactly what the change would be in the case that you predict change.
Or, perhaps you are arguing that predicting "Status Quo" is a safe, common-sensical prediction, because people are creatures of habit and avoid change at all costs. That would be common-sensical
If that's the case, it's no big deal if Cringely correctly predicted "Status Quo". That's a common sense, safe bet. If we really want to see how good Cringely is, we should look at where he predicted change, and how close his prediction was to what the world actually changed to.
If you predict change for any human or group-driven project, such as a company, you are essentially saying that the decision makers will apprehend the future as being so bad that they will decide to change their paradigm for moving forward and take a risk on a new plan. It's a pretty bold prediction to make.
Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.
-- Pablo Picasso
you can flame me if you wish but remember that i told you ahead of time. they are harsh predictions but due to certain sources and readings these are my personal conclusions.. #1. Playstation 3 will not be released in 2006...thats right will NOT.
#2. Bluetooth technology will suffer from new viruses..major viruses..nothing like the paris hilton fiasco. This will lead way to a technology that will make bluetooth obsolete. watch and see.
#3. SGI will file for bankruptcy. Mark It.
Yes these are harsh predictions and i cant say that i will get them all right but i am confident that i will get at least one of these right. i would love to hear your comments..and no flames.. serious discussion.
No, it could go the other way - current Mac users won't use anything else and Apple will make a mint from people who want a real OS. Huge numbers of people will try it out because friends recommended it and they can still keep XP just in case something goes wrong. They'll fall in love but will be frustrated by their old hardware and will make a real Mac their next computer purchase. Something similar happened with the iPod and its quality outshines the competition far less than OSX does XP.
"Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery?" - Patrick Henry
My prediction is still that these predictions won't matter, because the US economy/dollar is in serious troubble and the price of precious metals is going to completely explode. The foundation of these predictions is very simple:
a) the US economy has way too much debt
b) there is no way they can pay it off without printing up tons of money
c) the US economy is extremely efficient which means the adjustment will almost certainly
be harsh and brutal
Some other notes:
1) the dollar survived the 1920's because currency was still backed by precious metals
2) the dollar survived the inflation of the 80's becuase there wasn't a lot of debt
3) neither 1 nor 2 apply today, so hold on for the ride of your life when it hits