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Bayesian Filters Predict Sundance
JohnGrahamCumming writes "The LA Times reports on a company's use of Bayesian filtering to predict the winners at the Sundance Film Festival. They use a modified POPFile email filter and claim an 81% success rate."
...let's see it predict STOCK WINNERS.
With spending like this, exactly what are "conservatives" conserving?
That depends. If it predicts and filters 84% of all spam, then it can't be anything but good. However, if 84% of what it predicts and filters is indeed spam, then 16% was not and was filtered needlessly - that's bad.
I'm not sure what kind of crack-simulator Slashdot put into its related stories selector, but some kind of Bayesian filter to figure out the relationship might be helpful.
For example...
Ask Slashdot: State of WLAN Support on Linux?
Related...
IT: Microsoft Spending $120M To Look Smaller
Games: Defying Review Aggregation
Games: Competitive Gaming Hits the Mainstream
WTF?
Yeah, I get so tired of people publishing probabilty success rates without stating what the baseline is.
For example, I could announce I have an 85% accurate weather prediction system. it's this: predict the sun will shine most of the day. nowhere does it rain all day more than 15% of the days. so my predictor is 85% accurate.
When you claim an accuracy you need to also give the null model accuracy or it's gibberish.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.