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Bayesian Filters Predict Sundance

Posted by CmdrTaco on from the because-you-can dept.

JohnGrahamCumming writes "The LA Times reports on a company's use of Bayesian filtering to predict the winners at the Sundance Film Festival. They use a modified POPFile email filter and claim an 81% success rate."

1 of 123 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Shocking news! by goombah99 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Yeah, I get so tired of people publishing probabilty success rates without stating what the baseline is.

    For example, I could announce I have an 85% accurate weather prediction system. it's this: predict the sun will shine most of the day. nowhere does it rain all day more than 15% of the days. so my predictor is 85% accurate.

    When you claim an accuracy you need to also give the null model accuracy or it's gibberish.

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.