Slashdot Mirror
PSP To Increase U.S. Lead Over DS
Next Generation has a piece on an analyst's prediction that Sony's PSP will gain more ground on the Nintendo DS, here in the states, over the next five years. From the article: "SIG has compared year-by-year sales and estimates for the first five years of each machine's life, using sell-in and factory shipments. It points out that in its first year both PSP and DS managed around 13 million units each, with DS slightly ahead. Year two cumulative stats give PSP 25 million over DS' 22 million. In Year Three the difference rises to ten million (38m to 28m). In Year Four, PSP's lead has stretched to 15 million and to 20 million by Year Five." Though the PSP is now leading in the U.S., the DS is still king of the mountain in Japan.
I mean units in customers hands, not in retail channels.
Seriously, when? Anybody got a source?
While they are both fun pieces of hardware in their own respect. I just have a thing for Nintendo and the fact that they still make games that are just fun. This is the same reason I prefer to have a Gamecube over other consoles and will probably buy a Revolution. I just like fun games.
If only the stock-market could be predicted in this way, then I would be a rich man ....
In Soviet Russia my signature is reading YOU
I got a PSP in November and I love it. Great for watching movies, listening to mp3s, playing of favorite games (emulated). It might not be for everyone, but I've really enjoyed mine.
In the meantime, I hear that Mario Kart DS is doing surprisingly well.
-Rob
Biblical fiscal responsibility
Something that I have to point out about this article - It specifically states that Sony has sold 13m PSPs in the US. Sony hasn't released any info as pertains to PSP sales within the last three months. They've only said that they've shipped 10m PSPs to retailers sometime in December. Either thye have insider info, or the analysts are pulling this out of their ass. I'll assume it's the latter.
A wise man once said, "wtf h4x."
The DS and PSP have both only been out for roughly a year. So this is really saying that the DS is ahead of the PSP here in reality-land, but some random analyst predicts that the PSP will win in America in the end.
Based on? Well, based on the fact that they refuse to believe that Sony could lose, it would seem.
"I Know You Are But What Am I?"
Ultimately I think Sony may have achieved what it wanted, although more by dropping the ball on game development compared to actual effort. They said they wanted to create more of a multimedia device, rather than pure games. In some regards, they've succeeded -- many PSP owners don't use the device for games all that much. They use it to watch UMDs, or hack it.
The catch, as I see it, is that the hacking market tends to be early adopters -- geeks if you will. They're the ones who snatch up gadgets and like to explore it. Sustained sales, though, those are more mass market appeal. Hacking a system, no matter how simple, is not something that appeals to most people. Similarly, you can't buy roms -- they don't sell MAME emulators in Best Buy.
So who is going to buy these millions of PSPs in the future? I know a LOT of people bought them once the emulators hit, but, well, that doesn't turn a profit -- game sales do. Outside of the puzzle game Lumines (which, while popular, isn't exactly a system seller), there's GTA. And a few racing games. Sony seems to not care about the future of the system for games; it just gets a few UMDs.
But I don't see the system focusing on movies hurting the sales of the DS, which focuses entirely on games, and has been selling very well.
Silly Analyst.
... Lead', when it should probably be 'Predicted to take lead'.
PSP might be nice hardware, but until it gets the really fun games, people won't care. All I've heard is that the DS games are really fun, whilst the PSP games are a bit dull.
Has the PSP actually outsold the DS in the US anyway? I didn't think it had. Odd how the headline reads 'To Increase
And with the very suggestive 'Touch Me' adverts that appeal to adults, I don't see the DS losing out. However a redesign to be a bit less toylike would do it some good I think, like the SP did to the Advance.
And indeed, I bet the Advance is still selling strongly in the US...
Everything you just lauded is bad news for publishers seeking to make a profit off PSP games. Why should third parties pump resources into PSP development if their title has to compete against UMD movies, mp3s, uploaded MPGs and (to a lesser but still decent extent) homebrew apps for a PSP owner's attention? Lots of talk has been made about system sales, but the bigger story is software sales; with this in mind, the DS is much more publisher-friendly, and that, more than anything, will tell the tale of which gaming system succeeds more. Sure, Sony is selling a slick piece of hardware, but if they're gonna recoup from a loss-per-unit-sold, that'll come from UMD movie profits, not game licensing.
Got both a PSP and a DS. I use the DS (and my GBA micro) a lot more, even for watching movies. The four factors involved are battery life, memory stick cost, size and system fragility. The DS has an incredible battery life which is crucial when traveling and the micro still beats the PSP. The DS video solution the Play Yan uses cheap SD flash which is also supported on many of my other gadgets, on the other hand the MS Pro Duo flash is twice as expensive for the same memory size. The GBA micro which shares the movie player with the DS is small enough to fit on my belt and be used anywhere. Finally the PSP is big, fragile and more likely to be stolen, making a poor choice for travel.
Not to diss the great screen on the PSP, but the gamboy screen is quite sufficent.
Noted Slashdot analyst "Jerf" has analyzed the portable market, and has determined that the DS will beat the PSP in the US. Jerf points out that in its first year both PSP and DS managed around 13 million units each, with DS slightly ahead. Year two cumulative stats give DS 25 million over the PSP's 22 million. In Year Three the difference rises to ten million (38m to 28m). In Year Four, the DS' lead has stretched to 15 million and to 20 million by Year Five.
When asked for evidence for his claims, he replied: "What, we need evidence and reasons? What, are you a Communist or something?"
(Actually, the report may or may not be useful. Who can tell, since we don't seem to have a link to it. But the article is useless trash, and if I had to guess, this study does sound suspiciously paid-for, if you get my drift.)
But the sales performance of the DS this past year has taken many of us - even Nintenedo fans - by surprise. Clearly the DS has the superior momentum, and Sony has shockingly few gems on the horizon. Considering this is the ONLY DATA available, then where the hell does this prediction come from? I can see only three possibilities:
I hope these guys weren't counting on UMD movie sales to spur the PSP onward, because I suspect the new video iPod will take much of the wind out of those sails. (Sales?)
Must... think up... something... clever!
But, I checked out some of the PSP titles last night. And I was appalled to see that some of the prices for them were $50.
$50 for a HANDHELD game? No thank you. $40 is a bit much for a hand held game, IMHO. $25-$30 I can deal with, maybe an occasional $35 here and there-- were I to be a handheld game player. But the PSP games all started around $40 with few exceptions (some older games were down to $30), and some of the newest games were $50.
Sorry, if the pricing on PSP games stays like this, I can't see the PSP gaining much of a lead, if any, over the coming years. Handheld games are generally shorter than their console counterparts/cousins. They generally as not as fully featured as their console cousins. But I'd be God damned if I was going to spend as much on a hand held game as I am spending for a full console game if I owned a handheld system.
The system is $250. Start adding in games at $50 a pop, and I'd rather just wait for all the next gen consoles to come out and get the game there. The handheld gaming market is driven from pick up and play games, and some long RPGs, that you don't spend a lot of money on but get tons of enjoyment out of. $50 for handheld games, no matter what publisher put them out, is simply too much money.
With all the added risk you take with your handheld systems (dropping/breaking, losing, etc.) and the games, the price of the PSP and its games is just too high to keep it viable in the handheld market for too long. Consoles generally sit in one place, and don't move, so they don't have the same risk factors associated with them. And we've been paying $50 for those games for years. Until the PSP, no one was paying $50 for a handheld game... and, frankly, it's a gamble I think Sony and the publishers attempting to milk the handheld market buyers are going to lose.