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The Human Mind is a Bayes Logic Machine

Posted by CowboyNeal on from the but-you-already-knew-this dept.

lexxyz writes "Apparently the human mind can predict the distribution type for a given sample of results. A study found in The Economist has shown that a group of minds working on single pieces of data, can together generate the statistical model used to represent a given sample. Note that it takes a group of people to be able to accurately predict the behaviour of something, not a single individual"

11 of 98 comments (clear)

  1. the answer is statistically probably 42 by yagu · · Score: 5, Funny

    From the fine article:

    They suggest that the Bayesian capacity to draw strong inferences from sparse data could be crucial to the way the mind perceives the world, plans actions, comprehends and learns language, reasons from correlation to causation, and even understands the goals and beliefs of other minds.
    Phew! Once I read that, I realized I didn't have to read the rest of the article having now taken a large enough "sparse" sample.

    An added benefit, I already know what all of the posts are going to say, including this one!

    1. Re:the answer is statistically probably 42 by The-Bus · · Score: 5, Funny
      Phew! Once I read that, I realized I didn't have to read the rest of the article having now taken a large enough "sparse" sample.


      Careful. That's the kind of attitude that could put you in charge of editing Slashdot!
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  2. So,,, by Eightyford · · Score: 2, Funny

    The key to successful Bayesian reasoning is not in having an extensive, unbiased sample, which is the eternal worry of frequentists, but rather in having an appropriate "prior", as it is known to the cognoscenti. This prior is an assumption about the way the world works--in essence, a hypothesis about reality--that can be expressed as a mathematical probability distribution of the frequency with which events of a particular magnitude happen.

    So is this more evidence that creativity and regular intelligence do not get along too well?

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    Religion for nerds. Stuff that really matters
  3. Imagine... by virtualXTC · · Score: 3, Funny

    WOW!!

    Imagine a beowulf cluster of these!!!

    1. Re:Imagine... by skeptictank · · Score: 3, Funny
      "Imagine a beowulf cluster of these!!!"

      It's called a meeting, and the theoritical throughput is much higher than the realized throughput.

    2. Re:Imagine... by gstoddart · · Score: 3, Funny
      WOW!!

      Imagine a beowulf cluster of these!!!

      The Borg? =)
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      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
  4. No. by mnemonic_ · · Score: 2, Funny

    Good point. Maybe a better one though: who stole your sense of humor?

    1. Re:No. by Ohreally_factor · · Score: 4, Funny

      It wasn't stolen. He put it under his pillow and the sense of humor fairy left him a quarter.

      --
      It's not offtopic, dumbass. It's orthogonal.
  5. Hari Seldon? by the_humeister · · Score: 4, Funny

    I call prior art on psychohistory

  6. Re:Prediction by Tomun · · Score: 5, Funny

    Furthermore, there is actually no solid evidence that the future exists

    There is now.

  7. That would explain.... by Stephen+Samuel · · Score: 3, Funny
    That would explain why humans are so wired-up to seek explanations of how things work. The explanations feeds our baysien rule pool and .....

    Ugh! There I go again.

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