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Games Industry To Shrink in 2006?
Gamedev.net reports on an analyst forecast for the game industry's 2006 health. A previous analysis that the industry would have continued growth through the year is 'out the window', with forecasters judging this to be a slow year for game purchasing. From the article: "Pachter notes that during the three-month period leading up to the heavily anticipated November 22 Xbox 360 launch, console and PC software sales in the US were down 21.6 percent. Believing that consumers were holding off on making current-generation purchases in favor of waiting for next-gen products, Pachter thinks it's a trend that could repeat itself, specifically when Sony announces a launch date for the PlayStation 3. Currently Pachter expects that system to arrive in October, meaning the industry's transitional slump could last until late 2006"
Couldn't the slump in game sales simply be related to the lack a more great games? Here's two big reasons sales will spike in Spring: Kingdom Hearts II (PS2), Zelda: Twilight Princess (GC), Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (360/PC). Three AAA title on three systems.... all of which could/would/should have been part of 2005 before delays. From the numbers I seen through neXtGen, Joystiq, etc, no one stopped buying GBA titles leading up to the DS/PSP. Reason? A slew of quality games.
As far as I'm concerned, there are a lot of different reasons why the games industry will shrink, but honestly I think that it's no more than a normal correction.
No doubt that the 360 and anticipation for the PS3 and Revolution are major factors. Considering that the consoles are several hundred dollars, it's completely natural and should be expected that gamers will be holding onto their cash in order to get one of those sytems. Let's see -- start saving up at least $400 to get a console plus games adn accessories, or buy 8 $50 games for a current system that I might not play as much in less than a year, while still needing to come up with an additional $400 for the next console. I think the answer to that one is pretty obvious.
A lot of games have become almost parodies of themselves. Look at how many games came out that were cookie-cutter games to try to catch onto a "guaranteed" genre or are nothing but uninspired sequels to existing titles only to fizzle out. Then compare that with the surprisingly small number of completely original games. Even with sequel games, very few were really original and worth playing, even on the PC side of things.
When it comes to PCs, we're really starting to get fed up with games that (A) were released long before they should have been, (B) suffer from consolitis where the PC version is nothing more than a port from the console version, which turns a lot of PC gamers off, (C) are nothing more than variations on a theme, or (D) have some kind of "Big Brother" aspect to them that make even legal owners wonder if they're being treated as suspects.
There also seems to be a growing unfriendliness to something that a lot of gamers like - multiplay with bots, even in a LAN environment. This used to be a staple of the network gaming industry, and now it's not even considered under the guise of being "too difficult to implement", which I don't buy for a second. If the enemy can work in single-player with one target (the player), how is it so unbelievably difficult to implement the same algoritm for multiple players, and why has it become so difficult only in the past few years?
When you put all of these together and then realize that the prices of games are still quite high, especially when more games don't even come with decent manuals any more, is it any wonder that the games industry is shrinking?
But that also brings to mind a question -- is shrinkage about the gaming industry as a whole or just the gaming industry by the big boys (EA, Vivendi, etc.)? It seems to be that independent games are getting a lot of press and fans lately. The games industry might be shrinking for the major players, but I think that the industry is ripe for a growth explosion in the independent gaming sector.
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This is the reason for the Revolution and, to a somewhat lesser extent, the DS. The videogame industry simply can't support the growth it's had in the last several years.
There aren't enough new people picking up controllers to support it. Some kids are getting into it, but obviously not at a volume to offset the people neglecting their consoles for MMOs, or the people getting fed up with the shortage of well-made/innovative/actually FUN games, the people who simply can't afford to stay current, or the people who were hardcore in high school/college, but are moving on to actual employment and not having the time to game like they used to.
Plus, kids are having a harder time getting into it, as system/game costs are high, and more and more parents are figuring out that standard Playstation 2/3 and Xbox/360 fare isn't for kids. And since the kids can't have those, they settle for insulting Nickelodeon-branded crap that just isn't fun enough to really whet their appetites for gaming.
Sony and Microsoft are, for all intents and purposes, the driving force behind this. No real innovation, just cranking up the system specs. We add more complex controllers and more complicated games, while the next-gen systems are so prohibitively priced. Sony and Microsoft cater to the hardcore market, and do a decent job at it, but it's simply not a situation that looks welcoming to new customers.
Nintendo's whole "Blue Ocean" strategy is a direct response to the state of the gaming industry. Get new people in. Scooping up the junior market has always been their forté. This is why Pokémon and the Game Boy line have been such massive sellers: they're aimed squarely at an audience that the rest of the industry isn't taking seriously enough. It can be argued that this works a little too well, which is why Nintendo gets branded the kiddy system, but eh.
The whole idea of the Revolution's simplified, innovative interface is make interesting new games that anybody can pick up and get into. More new customers. The DS is their testing ground for this sort of thing - look at Nintendogs. What you think of the "game" is irrelevant; it's got people picking up Nintendogs (and the hardware to play it on) in volume.
People want new gaming experiences, and an innovative concept CAN bring in new customers. Looking at the DS as a test case for the Revolution, I'd guess that Rev has a somewhat slow start, but when the games start coming out and it gets a killer app that brings in an innovative experience that makes perfect use of the hardware (Nintendog Revolution?), it'll gain surprising ground on Sony and Microsoft.