Slashdot Mirror
Games Industry To Shrink in 2006?
Gamedev.net reports on an analyst forecast for the game industry's 2006 health. A previous analysis that the industry would have continued growth through the year is 'out the window', with forecasters judging this to be a slow year for game purchasing. From the article: "Pachter notes that during the three-month period leading up to the heavily anticipated November 22 Xbox 360 launch, console and PC software sales in the US were down 21.6 percent. Believing that consumers were holding off on making current-generation purchases in favor of waiting for next-gen products, Pachter thinks it's a trend that could repeat itself, specifically when Sony announces a launch date for the PlayStation 3. Currently Pachter expects that system to arrive in October, meaning the industry's transitional slump could last until late 2006"
This is the reason for the Revolution and, to a somewhat lesser extent, the DS. The videogame industry simply can't support the growth it's had in the last several years.
There aren't enough new people picking up controllers to support it. Some kids are getting into it, but obviously not at a volume to offset the people neglecting their consoles for MMOs, or the people getting fed up with the shortage of well-made/innovative/actually FUN games, the people who simply can't afford to stay current, or the people who were hardcore in high school/college, but are moving on to actual employment and not having the time to game like they used to.
Plus, kids are having a harder time getting into it, as system/game costs are high, and more and more parents are figuring out that standard Playstation 2/3 and Xbox/360 fare isn't for kids. And since the kids can't have those, they settle for insulting Nickelodeon-branded crap that just isn't fun enough to really whet their appetites for gaming.
Sony and Microsoft are, for all intents and purposes, the driving force behind this. No real innovation, just cranking up the system specs. We add more complex controllers and more complicated games, while the next-gen systems are so prohibitively priced. Sony and Microsoft cater to the hardcore market, and do a decent job at it, but it's simply not a situation that looks welcoming to new customers.
Nintendo's whole "Blue Ocean" strategy is a direct response to the state of the gaming industry. Get new people in. Scooping up the junior market has always been their forté. This is why Pokémon and the Game Boy line have been such massive sellers: they're aimed squarely at an audience that the rest of the industry isn't taking seriously enough. It can be argued that this works a little too well, which is why Nintendo gets branded the kiddy system, but eh.
The whole idea of the Revolution's simplified, innovative interface is make interesting new games that anybody can pick up and get into. More new customers. The DS is their testing ground for this sort of thing - look at Nintendogs. What you think of the "game" is irrelevant; it's got people picking up Nintendogs (and the hardware to play it on) in volume.
People want new gaming experiences, and an innovative concept CAN bring in new customers. Looking at the DS as a test case for the Revolution, I'd guess that Rev has a somewhat slow start, but when the games start coming out and it gets a killer app that brings in an innovative experience that makes perfect use of the hardware (Nintendog Revolution?), it'll gain surprising ground on Sony and Microsoft.