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Garriotts See Shakeup To MMOG Industry Coming
Next Generation is reporting from the annual DICE event, and has the gist of the presentation given by Robert and Richard Garriott about the future of the MMOG industry. From the article: "Richard Garriott, father of the Ultima series said, "After a period of growth, opportunities are closing, budgets are increasing to tens of millions of dollars, and companies need global infrastructure in order to publish. My guess is that over the next 3-5 years, only five companies will operate in this business, and unfortunately, many of the startups will be gone.""
I don't think this holds true for software, at least now that so many people have net/web access. The difference is that it's a lot easier to start your own game business (especially now). There are tons of free and cheap dev tools available for computers, so all you need is some skill, a web host, and a lot of perseverance. Unlike the car industry or retail box copy-type game publishers, which require tons of manufacturing and logistics.
people are creative, companies are just that, companies.
Most of the problems in the gaming indusrty result from greed and mismanagement.
Richard Garriott works for NCSoft now, and has credits on City of Heroes/Villains, Lineage I/II and the unfinished Tabula Rasa. That's 5 out of the company's 7 announced titles - all MMORPGs, and all modern (except for Lineage I). He knows what he's talking about.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Garriott
Of course, the indie scene will be spewing out dozens of MMORPGs of various quality levels every year from now until the end of time, but the number of companies that can compete with NCSoft may indeed grow small and stabilize that way.
Markov chains... this guy has got a +4 Interesting only parsing the summary and googling off, automated process. Name is an anagram. :) Statistics at its best.
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