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Cringely on Blockbuster-iPod Video Distro Plan
MrPerfekt writes "In this week's Cringely column, another one of his hypothesizing sessions actually seems plausible. Blockbuster's retail outlets make good sense for Apple to partner with them for video iPod content distribution. From the article: 'Take your Video-out iPod to Blockbuster, drop it in a kiosk dock then download from the local xServe your choice of 50,000 movies. You can rent the movie or buy it and you can even choose the resolution, which may or may not affect the final price. Take the iPod home, drop it in the dock attached to your TV and watch the movie. H.264 decoding takes place in the iPod in hardware.'"
I don't even have an iPod. How could this story possibly be true?
Drive to the Blockbuster to load up your iPod? When I have a perfectly good cable modem connection? Can you say "Akamai", boys and girls?
Blockbuster has nothing whatsoever to offer Apple if and when Apple decides to go into the full-length, hi-def movie business.
-jcr
The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
This is the key point to take from the article. I'm not defending whether or not Burst's patents are valid or not valid...just that nothing will happen until Apple makes Burst.com go away. This will require:
1. Invalidating their key patents via the courts - long and costly
2. Buying a license to use their patents (the solution Microsoft pursued) - short and costly
3. Buying Burst.com - short and costly and not a chance in hell because I can't see Jobs giving up when he is convinced that the patents that Burst.com hold are invalid.
However, I do think that the rumors of Sony launching some sort of movie service that y'all can plug your PS3s into is lighting a fire under the Cupertino booty. Somebody is going to launch this party . . . and if iTunes is any indication, to the first goes the $$$$.
We definitely live in interesting times.
But borrowing a DVD is already incredibly easy. About the only way this is easier is that you don't have to return the DVD and I don't think that's enough. Apple would be asking its customers to spend hundreds of dollars (?) on a piece of hardware that would be doing more or less the same job as the DVD player they already own.
It's probably a reasonable why-not idea, for those who already have an iPod. But I can't see it attracting a lot of new customers.
based on Cringley's latest "predictions" ie.. google advertising on tv? not anytime soon.. blockbuster having "docking" stations for ipod's? nope sorry.. cringley is waaaaay wrong lately..
first of all apple hasn't sold enough video ipods for blockbuster to even think of making a kiosk.. and second everyone has dvd players dummy.. you dont need a 400$ portable device to rent a movie.. you simply take the piece of plastic home with you. Maybe your saving the customer a return fee but why not save the customer from going to the store all together and download the movie from itunes? The customer with an ipod already has a kiosk its called a PC.
Greetings.
.com stores with their real stores. Apple probably wouldn't make the movies available through Blockbuster/Hollywood Video/etc. that would be just the channel to make them available for the computer-phobes or non-broadband customers.
My first reaction was the same as many here when I read the article: why bother, if you have broadband?
Cringely gives a good answer toward the end: because not everyone we know is using computers or cares about broadband. Outside our techie world, some people find the computer either intimidating or perfectly acceptable running on a 56 kbps modem. Thus, the ability to dock and iPod and refresh its contents at a local store isn't that far-fetched.
If you look at some of the big box retailers' strategies, they're all leveraging their on-line stores against their bricks-n-mortar stores, creating a continuum rather than a separate experience. They are integrating their
Now... coming back to reality... where on earth does Cringely get this stuff? Very entertaining, good speculation... but just that, in the end. Is anyone keeping track of which of his write ups wind up being accurate?
Cheers,
Eugene
http://eugeneciurana.com | http://ciurana.eu
No offence to the good people that work at blockbuster, but I'm not handing over my ipod to the people that work there. I can already see the "Blockbuster is not responsible for loss of data, cosmetic or electrical damage caused to your device during transfer" fine print.
Not to mention the Tarintino wannabe desk jockey with a chip on his shoulder after you try to rent Navy Seals or somesuch.....
Dvorak and Cringely both in the same day! We're doomed, folks!
Notice that Burst.com also announced that they are waiting another month to file their counter-claim to Apple's original suit.
What does this mean?
1. Burst.com needs more time to get their ducks in a row?? - Not likely. Any patent attorney worth their shiny shoes could have seen this stink with Apple coming from at least 946 smoots away. I can't imagine that Burst.com didn't anticipate Apple's suit and thus, they know how to reply.
2. Burst.com is stalling for time in case someone else is going to buy them in the near future - Why would Sony or Microsoft swoop in now when they didn't all of last year? They've got their own dudes with shiny shoes who are advising them to wait on the sidelines. I'm postive that no one in high-tech thinks that Burst.com's patents are valid -- however, someone has to jump in and sue. If Apple does, let 'em. Sony and Microsoft and Amazon and NetFlix and Blockbuster and . . . . insert old media company here . . . will jump in the pond after Apple's determined the water temperature. No one ELSE is going to buy Burst.com until this thing is clear.
3. Burst.com and Apple are working out a deal - Now this one . . . I think I can smell. Apple's suit is a great opening chess move. I can see Burst.com demanding a hefty licensing fee that amounts to something silly like amounts that have more than 9 figures or huge amounts each year. I'll bet Burst.com even has the moxy to think that their patents are worth hundreds of millions alone. What better way to get good terms for Apple than to file a suit? Dare Burst.com to go to trial . . and risk losing the patents . . . or settle on a lower licensing fee or selling price.
I'll bet at least my own shiny shoes that these suits are just negotiating by other means.
Why would I want to drive to the nearest Blockbuster location when I can download an iPod movie from the comfort of my very own cable modem?
If no cable company is willing to run Internet access to your geographic area, or you are otherwise happy with dial-up, then getting high-speed Internet access just for downloading movies may be more expensive than a DVD rental by mail subscription, and given the price of urban real estate, moving house is even more expensive.
Change DVD player to CD player and go back a few years.
Now how does this blurb about the iPod sound:
Apple would be asking its customers to spend hundreds of dollars (?) on a piece of hardware that would be doing more or less the same job as the CD player they already own.
terrible business model....
I like microcars
how big is a dvd quality movie?
Without extras, about 4 GB, or 32000 Mbit.
how fast is usb?
Theoretically 480 Mbps, practically 240 Mbps or thereabouts. 32000 Mbit / 240 Mbps = 133 seconds.
Seriously, who needs a coupla thousand square feet of overlit retail space and some glassy-eyed clerks when a vending machine can do the exact same thing, 24/7, in 12 square feet, installable in any mini-mall, public transit station, school or grocery store? If Apple were really interested in direct loads to iPods one of these and a network connection is all they need.
Figure a box the size of your typical soda machine (mostly for security & visibility), fill the bottom foot with concrete for stability and theft-discouragement, then a rack with an Xserve & some reasonably high-speed communications gear. Have it download material on a regular basis, video & audio, in whatever formats and quality required. Put some smarts into the system so local demographics are respected and demand is anticipated (Espaniol in Spanish neighborhoods, kiddie material when installed in schools, etc.) On the front stick a few TV screens showing previews and specials.
For security double encrypt all of the media content, partially decrypt as it's being iPod-loaded, then have it played back using a public key system. Then step back and see what sells. Sure music, videos, ringtones and movies can be the first products but what about software, indeed any sort of large or valuable file. Leave room in the top of the box for wireless distribution - walk nearby and your electronics can auto-discover streaming audio and video advertising in WiFi & Bluetooth, access to websites that pay Apple for the privilege, etc.
But a whole Blockbuster? Naw, a mini Lockerbuster!
I don't read ACs: If a post isn't worth so much as a nom de plume to its author then I wont bother either.
There are quite a few areas (like, say, anywhere >2 miles outside of a suburb) where you can't get cable or DSL. These people still like to watch movies (which is one of the reasons why satellite TV is so big).
But that's just the advantage over internet distribution. No one's talking about the advantages over retail.
How many movies are in an average blockbuster. How many of you have gone there (ok, say five years ago back when you didn't just download it over your university connection) and they didn't have the movie you wanted to watch, or had already rented it?
If you have all of your collection on a hard drive, you can rent it out to everyone at once, no problem. And you can keep WAY more movies available at any one location.
The whole convenience of blockbuster is a good selection (or sometimes just large selection - how much luck do you have finding exactly the awful horror flick your friend recommended to you on p2p in any reasonable amount of time) and short time to get it - yes, it isn't as convenient as netflix or a download if you're planning ahead, but if you just want something to watch TONIGHT, it's a lot easier to stop at a store on your way home than scour p2p or call netflix and wait a day.
I could definitely see my parents (who don't have broadband) using this, and if it were tied into a fully stocked online store/rental (and therefore, I already had a video ipod) I could myself using it, too, when I don't have time to wait for a download.
It's not as good as a full download store for those of us on fat pipes, but a large portion of the country can't or won't get those, and for those people I could see this being quite useful (assuming you made the whole thing so easy to use that they wouldn't be intimidated by it - that'd be the hard part).
iPods had a big advantage over portable CD players - more portability. They were smaller than portable CD players, more convenient to use, much more portable than CD libraries. I don't think the video iPod has any similar advantage. It's not a portable viewer, as long as you're still taking it home to watch on your TV. If people start watching movies on VR glasses or something then that sounds like a much more promising paradigm.
iPods could also use songs downloaded from the internet. There's a marginal corresponding advantage here: by transferring songs from your computer to your TV through an iPod you avoid issues with noise in the TV room. But it's not the only, or probably best, solution to that problem.
Wow, that's backwards thinking for you! Why bother leaving the house?
All apple needs to do is upgrade the mac mini to include an ipod video docking station and convince us that we need one in the living room. Download movies from the iTunes video store and play them using the mac mini. If you want to take a movie to a friends house just sync it to the ipod video go to said friends living room with an s-video cable and viola: The ipod is the new DVD media and player all in one. Exactly where they want to be.
All this sneaker-net idea of his would do is slow Blockbusters death at Apple's expense.
You are checking your backups, aren't you?
Sorry dude, you need a computer to use an iPod. Sure, there are a few folks out there who probably have all their music on their friend's computer, but those people are few and far between. Seeing that the iPod demographic, while mainstream, tends to be the technically elite mainstream... and fairly cosmopolitan, it's safe to say that a large percentage of the the demographic has fairly decent internet access. And, so what if it takes 2 hours to download a movie? Many people download things while they sleep, movies would be one of them.
Multiplayer Gaming (defined): Sitting around, discussing single-player games with my friends, at the bar.
A small quibble: your point 1 is wrong. Cringely's idea is that you would be renting the movies. You would not need to return it though. The DRM license would just expire after a determined amount of time.
Oh, and that invalidates your second point too. You don't buy songs at Virgin or Tower because there is no mechanism for uploading songs from your iPod to your computer (according to Apple anyway). However when renting, Apple does not need to provide a way to keep it on your computer. You will want it to be deleted after the license expires.
How much is a DVD? 5 GB? Let's say we have an iPod that size.
What BB could do is to stock iPods preloaded with movies? You go and pick up a movie. When a movie is in demand, they load many iPods with the movie. When it goes out of demand, they replace the movie by a newer one.
They get to re-use the hardware. They could also do just-in-time inventory - if a movie is left with 2 copies, they just start loading another 2.
BB could charge customers a deposit to rent the device.
But I still think a better solution is downloadable movies.
The thing is, portable DVD players are already cheaper than video iPods. And regular DVD players are cheaper than an iPod Shuffle.
Going with the iPod really doesn't get you much of an advantage. The screen is smaller, the video is lower quality when hooked up to a TV. The only advantage might be that you can keep more than one movie on the iPod, but that strikes me as being much less significant than the ability to keep thousands of songs on an iPod versus a few songs on a CD.
There's no way Blockbuster is going to try to make a business out of selling or renting iPod-based movies to the few customers who would prefer to watch on their wee small iPod screen, and would leave home to go to a Blockbuster in order to do so.
I can't see many people doing that. If you're going to drive to the store, you're likely to grab a DVD to watch on your TV.
September 2011: Looking for Cocoa/iOS work in Boston area Cocoa Programmer Quincy, MA
As an addendum, there is one place where I think this business model would work well...
Airports. The ideal market for this would be travellers facing a few hours on a plane, who probably would appreciate being able to pick up a video to watch without being encumbered by a DVD case, bag, plastic wrapper, etc.
Especially if the service allowed the movie to be loaded onto a laptop for customers without a video iPod.
September 2011: Looking for Cocoa/iOS work in Boston area Cocoa Programmer Quincy, MA
I live in the Blueridge mountains of Virginia an hour west of DC. All I can get is dial-up. We don't have DSL, cable modem, and my 100 ft poplars and the mountain to my west prevent me from doing satellite. We are far enough out that I can't even get network TV. However, I have a 60 inch plasma HDTV and a Bose surround system and a library of 1,000 DVDs, a lot of which are documentaries, etc so my kids have something besides crap to watch (they read a lot). I visit a Blockbuster store once a week and it is 15 miles away, so I am likely to be a great candidate for this type of service, but I can tell you right now that I'm unlikely to ever use it as described.
Why? Because I'm all about owning my video and having the ability to sell them when the media they are on becomes obsolete (like VHS). After all, at $20 a pop x 1,000 DVDs, I have a real inventment. When I go to sell all those DVDs and trade up to Blu-ray (or whatever), I want something tangible that I can take a picture of and sell on eBay, and I just can't see that a terabyte video iPod loaded with movies would bring me more money than the actual physical DVD and case. Real hard to take a picture of bits.
What someone SHOULD do is kill off DVDs and the upcoming Blu-ray stuff and concentrate on building a read-only 30GB movie flash card that can somehow be loaded up *very* quickly (a GB/second) using special write hardware (perhaps located at Blockbuster and other stores). Now you have my attention. Not only would the media take up less space in my living room (allowing me to have a larger library), but it wouldn't be prone to scratching by my kids, and I still have a physical embodiment of the video that I can sell in the future. Since we already have 1GB flash cards, I don't see this as a tremendously difficult leap. The players would be a lot cheaper and more reliable too, since they would involve no moving parts.
Hmmm....forget I said anything. Think I'll start a new business....