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The Financial Future of Space Travel
gurps_npc writes " This CNNMoney story discusses the financial future of space travel. In particular it gives some nice names and numbers, such as Bezos, Musk and 3554 Amun. 3554 Amun is an small metalic asteroid that crosses Earth's pass (not on collission course) and contains over 20 trillion US dollars worth of precious metal. It is a great fact to know when trying to explain to flat-earth types that don't understand why we waste money on space travel."
scheme. The government will front the money, and we'll have privatization of risk, but when the money starts to get made, we'll hear about how we need to keep government out. Kind of like today, where companies rail against government interference on the Internet and the utilities, which wouldn't exist without government action.
Seriously, without government action, the south would have no electric power, the Internet would not be here, and people in the boondocks would never have mail service, because the Free Market wouldnt support it.
On that note, remember, Free Market economics is like Marxist economics, a few designed system with strengths and weaknesses, not some divine proscription.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard note the last line of the third paragraph: "The gold standard is no longer used in any nation, having been replaced completely by fiat currency." "Sweden abandoned the gold standard in 1929, the US in 1933, and other nations were, to one degree or another, forced off the gold standard." So, in summary: "1933 called, and they want to redeem their dollars."
We might actually be able to pay off the national debt!!!
No Sigs!
(I am joking...:-)
Generally, bash is superior to python in those environments where python is not installed.
Expense and difficult problems pave the way for high tech research and funding.
Just like war: the people who benefit most are in the high tech fields.
Mooniacs for iOS and Android
I'm gonna start launching "ME" flags at all the nearest celestial bodies.
And as soon as you do, you can expect a visit from SCO's lawyers.
Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.
Ahh, well, at least the existence of this "gold mine in the skies" gives me a good reason to say "Great, so private enterprise can fund space exploration now" and stop pouring billions of tax dollars into NASA, the world's most inefficient R&D slush-fund.
Help poke pirates in the eyepatch, arr.
Cobalt, Platinum family metals, Iron and Nickel.
"There are three key things to know about 3554 Amun: First, its orbit crosses that of Earth; second, it's the smallest M-class (metal-bearing) asteroid yet discovered; and finally, it contains (at today's prices) roughly $8 trillion worth of iron and nickel, $6 trillion of cobalt, and $6 trillion of platinumlike metals." - FTFA
"3554 Amun is an M-type Aten asteroid (meaning it crosses Earth's orbit) and a Venus-crosser. It was discovered on 4 March 1986 by Carolyn and Eugene Shoemaker at Mount Palomar Observatory."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3554_Amun
That's the idealistic response, but this is the kind of thing that will get NASA out of the space business and get people into it who know how to turn a profit on it. In the long run, this is what can make space travel widely accessible, not a government agency.
And the brethren went away edified.
And exactly does one come to own an asteroid? Is planing a flag good enough?
Space property rights are a very murky and ambiguous area, but one which should get resolved if we want to have any hope of expanding out there permanently. An article by Sam Dinkin in the Space Review on Property rights and space commercialization has a fairly nice overview of the issues. A quote:
Space property rights will probably not spark a space transportation boom that will rival the railroad boom, the airplane boom, or the automobile boom. But there will be no boom if there are no property rights. Leaving the regulatory regime the same is a recipe for continued sclerosis.
If we do nothing, space will look a lot more like Antarctica than Alaska. Without property rights there will not be adequate investment and space resources will be underutilized. Establishing property rights in space will cost millions, not billions, and can be done decades ahead of any commercialization or colonization. It's time to set the stage to break out of the exploration mode of Columbus and get on with establishing the regulatory regime to lay the foundation for the next Plymouth Rock.
Hey we found one of those flat earth types...and the issue went way over his head.
Bullshit. You'd need a micrometer to measure its tidal effect.
Moon: mass = 7x10e22 kg, distance= 360,000 km
Asteroid: mass about 2x10e13 kg, distance (say) 100 km
ratio of gravitational forces:m1/m2* (r1/r2)e2 = roughly 1/270.
No. Rockets "push against" their exhaust, not what they launch from. However, if they used a mass-driver to accelerate the payloads, the asteroid would be pushed back. But it's a simple calculation.
The day astronomers discover an asteroid with oil reserves is the day the US diverts half its military budget to the 'peaceful exploration of space'.
FYI, the moon Titan is pretty much covered in "oil reserves."
Because Jupiter and Saturn have heaps of methane (many times the mass of the Earth) and Neptune and Uranus are practically made of the stuff.
http://michaelsmith.id.au
your own link contradicts you:
I might be misreading it, but I'm under the impression that while its still uncertain whether or not there's liquid hydrocarbons on the surface, there's almost certainly hydrocarbons in Titan's thick atmosphere.
I found the wikipedia entry, and it looks like they are thinking in terms of 200kph at low altitudes, and centrifugal forces would indeed induce rocket speeds beyond geosynchronous.
Lengthening the cable enough to remove need of counterweight is mentioned as a possible way to launch things out of earth orbit.
Rocket speeds tangential to the cable? I'm sure they've thought that one through, though.
I read a lot of negative comments on NASA on this board. It's now fashionable to complain that this agency has become a huge inefficient cesspit of wasted opportunities and money. Since the last shuttle disaster NASA is not looking very good for sure.
People assume that things will fare better if profit-driven private enterprise runs the space exploring show.
To a great degree I think it's not as simple as it looks. First the obvious cheap routes to profit from space are already taken : putting satellites in LEO and geosynchronous orbit. There is already a lot of competition on that market between the US, Europe, Japan, India and China. Unless someone comes up with a space elevator that works or similar disruptive technology, this is not likely to change much.
Essentially private space exploring enterprises is now at the level NASA was at in 1950 or so. It took a huge financial effort and a large dedicated team of incredible people to go to the Moon in 1970 or so (and bring back small samples of rock). While not all of this is lost, and I believe it is possible to repeat the feat, I can't see much profit in that particular endeavour. Colour me doubtful with respect with space tourism. It will be a while before this is safe enough for companies to ship people for small leaps above the atmosphere without getting sued out of existence at the first accident.
Getting to the Moon and the asteroids and mining them has been a mainstay of science fiction since it has existed. Everyone knows many asteroids are metal-rich and could turn a nice buck if they could be exploited. Everyone knows the Moon is littered with He3, and theoretically achieving sustained nuclear fusion might be easiser there. However various governments have known this as well, for decades. In contrast to starry eyed reporters and somewhat naive slashdot users, they have run the numbers and found that with current technology their exploitation is simply not economically feasible. Again we need disruptive technology and it's not there yet.
While I'm not a particular big fan of governements either, and not particularly the US's, I'd like to remind everyone here that so far, in spite of their failings, it is them who have driven investments, research, exploration and exploitation. They are so far ahead of any and all private space exploration outfits that it's not funny.
Even with the help of billions and indeed, trillions of dollars of private funds it will take a very long time for private enterprise to catch up, let alone leap ahead. I don't doubt that if Bill Gates and Warren Buffet combined their wealth they'd be able to build a Saturn V equivalent in a small number of years, but I can't see anyone succeeding in convincing them it would be a good and sound business proposition.
It may happen, but I wouldn't hold my breath. While private enterprise is busy gathering investors with nice sounding business plans and pooh poohing all that we learned in the last 50 years or so of actual space exploration because, you know, gov't did it and that's not relevant, NASA and the others are still exploring the solar system, last I checked. Apparently there's a plan to go to Mars, or so I heard.
Really all that NASA and others require is a sound plan, a clear worthy goal that has some chance of succeeding. What many people seem to be missing here is that in spite of searching and thinking hard that plan was never found. The rest followed.
"The Apollo era was heroic, but beating the Soviets to the moon never provided a compelling economic reason to return. (We didn't even get Teflon or Tang as spinoffs--both were invented before 1960.)"
I may be nitpicking here, but the premiss is plain WRONG.
America's leadership in the semiconductor industry in general and the CPU industry in perticular is direct result of the space race and the arms race. I prefare the former rather then the latter. The challange of making apollos on-board computer directly influenced the development of ICs, and later the CPU. intel would'nt have been if it were not for apollo (or at least would have come much later).
That's 20 trillion US dollars worth of precious metal at current prices
You can guarantee that if you manage to mine this rock, prices would go down. Supply and demand.
My Karma: ran over your Dogma
StrawberryFrog
There's a lot missing in this equation as presented.
The asteroid, small as it is on the scale of things, weighs a lot. A real lot.
This means that changing the delta-V to get the metals to Earth will require a lot of energy. We may well be able to do that with the Sun one day. However, there is also the gravitational field energy to be considered. Merging the gravity wells will release an awful lot of energy, which will then need to be soaked up somehow, or we'll make carbon emission worries look like wondering vaguely if you left the gas on.
In short we'd better build that space elevator and a portable solar sail before we even think about mining asteroids on a grand scale.
Justin.
You're only jealous cos the little penguins are talking to me.
and can be done decades ahead of any commercialization or colonization.
See, here's the problem. We see it now with people patenting things they could never accomplish, paying a few thousand dollars in application and lawyer fees to obtain the property rights to things they'll never actually own.
Property rights in advance is foolish, stupid, dumb, idiotic, and any number of other names you can assign. Do you know why the Gold Rush was a Rush? Because people could go west and stake out a plot of land and own it. Do you want to know how to kill the Space Rush? Sell me 3554 Amun for a million dollars, so I can sit tight here and wait for someone to bring it back for me.
You want to see a space race? "Whoever sets foot there first, wins."
If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
From: http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/
Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 161.00 km = 99.98 miles
Projectile Diameter: 2000.00 m = 6560.00 ft = 1.24 miles
Projectile Density: 8000 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 17.00 km/s = 10.56 miles/s
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 2750 kg/m3
Target Type: Crystalline Rock
Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 4.84 x 1021 Joules = 1.16 x 106 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 5.1 x 106years
Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass. The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis.
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.
Crater Dimensions:
Transient Crater Diameter: 24.4 km = 15.1 miles
Transient Crater Depth: 8.63 km = 5.36 miles
Final Crater Diameter: 37.2 km = 23.1 miles
Final Crater Depth: 0.879 km = 0.546 miles
The crater formed is a complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 30.4 km3 = 7.3 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater , where its average thickness is 65.1 meters = 213 feet
Thermal Radiation:
Time for maximum radiation: 1.99 seconds after impact
Visible fireball radius: 31.8 km = 19.7 miles
The fireball appears 44.9 times larger than the sun
Thermal Exposure: 8.22 x 107 Joules/m2
Duration of Irradiation: 439 seconds
Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 187
Effects of Thermal Radiation:
Clothing ignites
Much of the body suffers third degree burns
Newspaper ignites
Plywood flames
Deciduous trees ignite
Grass ignites
Seismic Effects:
The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 32.2 seconds.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 8.7
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 161 km:
VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.
VIII. Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned.
Ejecta:
The ejecta will arrive approximately 184 seconds after the impact.
Average Ejecta Thickness: 75.8 cm = 29.8 inches
Mean Fragment Diameter: 6.91 cm = 2.72 inches
Air Blast:
The air blast will arrive at approximately 488 seconds.
Peak Overpressure: 278000 Pa = 2.78 bars = 39.5 psi
Max wind velocity: 357 m/s = 798 mph
Sound Intensity: 109 dB (May cause ear pain)
Damage Description:
Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse.
Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse.
Multistory steel-framed office-type buildings will suffer extreme frame distortion, incipient collapse.
Highway truss bridges will collapse.
Glass windows will shatter.
Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.
Do you have any better hostages?
You throw stuff out the back of your rocket while you're near ground, that stuff is going to hit the ground and transfer its momentum. Until you're far enough away for the exhaust to disperse before reaching the ground you effectively push against the ground - you'd get the same thrust without the ground there, certainly, but the ground still recoils. It's a pretty small consideration, though - you can launch from alternate sides of the asteroid if you have to.
Note that you don't so much land on a 2km asteroid as you dock with it. So chances are very little of your exhaust would actually be directed at any particular side of the asteroid.