PS3 Delay May Hurt Current Gen Too
Next Generation reports that, in some analysts view, the real victim of the PS3 delay may actually be current gen console publishers and gamers. Houses like EA and Activision have a lot of money tied up in creating games for the next generation, and if the PS3 isn't launching here in the states until after summmer... They end up laying out four increasingly bad scenarios for the industry. From the article: "The third scenario theorizes on a 25 percent price cut on current generation software. We've already seen substantial price-cuts from EA, as the current-gen versions of The Godfather, Black and Fight Night Round 3 all debuted or will debut at $40, a 20 percent cut from the normal $50 price tag. The erosion of sales prices may be caused by publishers trying to unload inventory, or by publishers that target budget shoppers. This scenario could cause major publishers' earnings to drop between 35 and 49 percent."
According to the interview cited here it won't launch in Japan until Holiday '06, which puts the US release sometime in '07!
Remember, the current Cell implementation is a PowerPC with eight (seven for bad chips) "Synergistic Processing Elements", which are relatively conventional CPUs tied to 256K of uncached memory but with hardware to support asynchronous scatter-gather copy to and from main memory. This is very different hardware from the PS2. It's not going to be an easy emulation.
Trying to get the NVidia part to emulate the PS2's VS1 and GS units will be a neat trick; the graphics power is there, but in a very different form. It's a reasonable porting job, but straightforward emulation at the binary level is tough.
There's kind of a "build it and they will come" attitude from some of the Cell people. They're not quite sure how to use all those little isolated processors effectively, but hope someone will figure it out.
We'll all know more after GDC in two weeks.