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PS3 Delay May Hurt Current Gen Too
Next Generation reports that, in some analysts view, the real victim of the PS3 delay may actually be current gen console publishers and gamers. Houses like EA and Activision have a lot of money tied up in creating games for the next generation, and if the PS3 isn't launching here in the states until after summmer... They end up laying out four increasingly bad scenarios for the industry. From the article: "The third scenario theorizes on a 25 percent price cut on current generation software. We've already seen substantial price-cuts from EA, as the current-gen versions of The Godfather, Black and Fight Night Round 3 all debuted or will debut at $40, a 20 percent cut from the normal $50 price tag. The erosion of sales prices may be caused by publishers trying to unload inventory, or by publishers that target budget shoppers. This scenario could cause major publishers' earnings to drop between 35 and 49 percent."
Other than a couple of weeks extra hammering out some BluRay issues PS3 production on track for the same schedule Sony has been claiming for the past year.
IBM has been abosolutely giddy about their Cell yields. There should already be a stockpile of 7/8 Broadband Engines ready to go.
The RSX graphics rasterizer(not GPU) is built on very mature process tech.
The only possible hardware issue is the production of the blue laser drives. Since commercial BluRay players already exists it is doubtful Sony will have any problem in manufacturing them.
E3 will be the big show for Sony and the PS3 with retail units hitting the shelves around June/July in Japan. And most likely September in the US. $349/399.
Don't worry, if you get your order in you'll almost certainly be playing the fantastic PS3 title currently in development long before the 2006 holidays.
The only unkown left in the next gen race is what price the Revolution will come out at.
Look at how much money they're raking in now, though. If EA takes a bath for a quarter or two, the company's not going to suffer in the slightest. They'll just make most of it back when they release the next go round of sports titles.
Goo goo g'joob.
Now, maybe Sony claimed something specific about American release dates that I didn't see at some point. But that brings me to my point: Practically nobody knows they were supposed to be expecting a ps3 spring launch in the first place unless they follow websites and magazines like this one religiously! Sony's been so tight-lipped in the general american press about the PS3 it's crazy. A lot of people don't really know anything at all about the PS3 except that it's someday coming-- which is something they probably knew two years go, too. The uncertainty about the release date is a big deal on internet message boards, but internet message boards are not the market.
How can delays in the PS3 possibly hurt PS2 game sales when practically nobody knows a delay is happening in the first place? Especially considering
It just seems kinda silly to me. PS2 hardware sales are probably going to drop off as people increasingly wait for the PS3-- I know I personally would have probably bought a ps2 several months ago if I weren't waiting for the PS3-- but the PS2 sales base is already ginormous, and they're talking about game sales in this article. PS2 games absolutely can and will continue to sell briskly right up to the PS3 release, even if there is a "next gen" system already available; look at Final Fantasy 9, a PS1 game which came out shortly after the PS2 launch and after the Dreamcast had been out a year. It was a top seller at release despite being widely viewed as the worst game in the series**.
This whole thing just sounds to me like gibberish from analysts trying to rewrite reality to be more dramatic.
* Though if they don't announce a release date at GDC on March 20, I will take that as a sign the Japan launch date has slipped as well. You do not go from media blackout to release in under three months unless you are Sega and you have a death wish.
** Mystic Quest doesn't count.
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....the real victim of the PS3 delay may actually be current gen console publishers and gamers... "The third scenario theorizes on a 25 percent price cut on current generation software.
The way I see this, is that the publishers lose, and the customer wins. So, does that mean if the PS3 were here now, prices would be higher and the publisher wins and customer loses?
There is the concept of 'risk' that every company must analyze and accept. Sometimes you win some, sometimes... well, you know...
I have never let my schooling interfere with my education.
Think of it this way, you just bought a new computer with XP. Why spend money on software or hardware that either won't work, or won't work to its fullest capacity on your new machine?
What's the matter, James? No glib remark? No pithy comeback?
Wouldn't now be the time for the software houses work on different/quirky games for the current consoles? Now I understand that it takes a lot to get a game out on a console, but it seems to me that there is a lull in the gaming market. Other than the 360, most consoles should have well developed/tuned library that they could churn something out easily. What if they did a google labs kinda thing? Take a quarter or two and incubate some low budget games. Peridocially you see what's sticking and cull the stuff that's not. Who knows, maybe this will give them a new franchise to run into the ground or even better a new genre of game.
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The one "good" scenario deals not with the developers and publishers, but with Sony. If the system is delayed, that will allow any last minute "bug crushing" to finish - and more importantly, allow more titles to be finished by launch date. Instead of having 10 games (and a large library of backwards-compatible titles), Sony could wind up with more.
Granted, that means the publishers are screwed over, but as someone else mentioned, they'll just blame it on piracy and life will move on.
52 Weeks, 52 Religions with John Hummel
> Since commercial BluRay players already exists it is doubtful
...with retail units hitting the shelves around June/July in Japan.
> Sony will have any problem in manufacturing them.
Oh, really? Because they've made a few thousand of these they'll have no problem making a million? In just a few months?
>
> And most likely September in the US. $349/399.
What - exactly - are you basing this on and which oriface did it come from?
> Don't worry, if you get your order in you'll almost certainly be playing
> the fantastic PS3 title currently in development long before the
> 2006 holidays.
No, that doesn't sound like shilling at all.
I'm not saying there is or is not a delay. The only thing anyone outside of Sony can say with any degree of confidence is "We don't know."
So either you're a shill, or you're talking out of your ass.
I'm guessing the latter.
As previously commented, most people have no idea when the PS3 is going to come out. "Everyone" knows that the PS3 is going to be backwards comp. with PS2 though. So what's the issue here? The /. commentary seems to state that publishers are going to cut prices on PS2 games before PS3 games come out. Hmm, I doubt it. I'd say that most PS2 games will stay right at their current price point until shortly after the PS3 goes on sale. You'll see maybe a $5-10 drop on the big seller games while those that have been on the shelves and not moving will be dropped to $20-25 dollars. Alot of PS3 buyers will just pickup cheap PS2 games rather than spend $50-70 on "new" PS3 games. Backwards compatiblity is really bad for "new game" sell, but great for reselling the same stock over and over again. (That publisher that has sequel 3 that is moving well, with I don't really see a negative if they plan on just dropping prices for the PS3 release just to move stock. Trust me, the publishers aren't going to be losing money.