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Reflections on the Holy Trinity
1up has a piece looking at gaming's future by reflecting on gaming's past. What do the launches of older systems teach us to expect from the PS3's ... eventual debut. From the article: "Shouts of 'Dreamcast' ... fall a little flat when you consider that Dreamcast was more of a last-ditch attempt from a company that hadn't turned a profit in 10 years. Microsoft isn't bowing out anytime soon, which means that being out in front will probably be an advantage -- by the time Sony launches, the 360 will be over the launch hiccups and rolling with a steady stream of new software. On the other hand, if Blu-ray is as big for the PS3 as DVD was for the PS2, Microsoft could find itself technologically inferior -- a direct consequence of its rush to market. "
While it is true that history tends to repeat itself, every time when someone tries to divine the future from the past they make the same fatal mistake that makes their predictions totally useless. They simply take into account too short section of the past, quite often only few years, instead of few centuries and their predictions are directed on a too close future, often few months or years rather than decades. Anyway, I don't think this trend is going to stop anytime soon and so here we go with yet another useless prediction.
If programs would be read like poetry, most programmers would be Vogons.
Dreamcast was more of a last-ditch attempt from a company that hadn't turned a profit in 10 years
Yeah, I'm sure Sega was thinking that when they designed it... "Well, we're done for. Let's blow a whole bunch of money on one last failed console before closing the doors."
I have said it before but I think the gaming industry in its thrust to make people spend computer system like amounts of money and to add the absolute best crap to their system without really testing it are prepping themselves for another video game crash like 81. And we ALL know who came out tops after that one.
"Slashdot, where telling the truth is overrated but lying is insightful."
I'm not understanding this. These two new video formats do... what, exactly? Nothing, beyond showing higher quality digital video. Which is utterly useless unless you have an HD-TV, which is not exactly a universal standard.
When the PS2 hit, it revolutionized / popularized DVDs. Why? Because a DVD cost at worst $25 at the time, and that's a good cheap buy. Couple that with the value you get out of having a combo game system and DVD player (since DVD players were expensive to buy seperately) and that's a no brainer money saver.
But now, if you want to take advantage of Blu-Ray, you need a multi-thousand dollar television, and potentially more expensive movies. Which is NOT as much of a no-brainer as the PS2 was.
On top of all that, we're rapidly approaching the point where we've gone as high-def as we realistically NEED to go. For a lot of folks, standard DVD is "fine." The upgrade is too expensive and the reward too low when you've got a workable solution; this isn't like VHS tapes which could degrade over time, had blatantly inferior video quality, and interactive features. DVD has plenty going for it and all HD adds on top is more rez, which while nice, isn't important enough.
No. The video capability is not going to be what sells the PS3. It's a nice bonus but not as critical as the game library is at this point. (And given the 360's scrawny library, including unimpressive entries on the release chart, the PS3 has a good chance to sieze advantage...)
One thing that has become apparent, at least to me, is Sony's attempt to repeat the history of the successful PS2 launch which was buoyed by the console's ability to play DVDs. The problem this time around though is that Blu-Ray is not established the way that DVDs were when the PS2 launched. I remember that I finally got tired of waiting for the PS2 to come out and went out and bought a Sony DVD player when the prices became more attractive. This time though, not only are there not Blu-Ray players available, there aren't any movies in the format either.
I think the Xbox 360 launch pushed up the PS3 launch a year or even two ahead of where Sony wanted it to be. They really needed that time to get Blu-Ray established with movies and stand alone players. Then the PS3 would come along as a great game machine and a probably lower cost alternative to play Blu-Ray movies. Unfortunately, Microsoft has ruined that script. Now the Playstation 3 is going to have to live or die on gaming alone at launch, something that its predecessor would have had a hard time doing given the so so launch titles of that time (especially in Japan).
I'm not saying that Sony has no chance to prevail against the competition, only that their attempt to repeat history has failed. They might have been better served by a more Nintendo-like attitude of releasing things when they are ready rather than being too worried about the competition and building so much hype. Of course, Sony probably has a lot of reasons that they really can't wait, especially since the Playstation brand is basically carrying the company these days.
To the making of books there is no end, so let's get started
I think for Microsoft, truly the third time is the charm. And the cool thing about my prediction is that it's as well reasoned as those put forth by this article's author and I just pulled it out of my ass.
Microsoft has been losing money in their game business since the original XBox launch. Their stock has been flat for five years, and the stockholders are starting to get annoyed with the money drain. Microsoft may at some point be pushed into "concentrating on their core business area". Losing money forever isn't a business.