Slashdot Mirror
Analysts React to PS3 Delay
GameDailyBiz has a piece looking at some professional analyst opinion on what the PS3 delay means for Sony. From the article: "Merrill Lynch analyst Hitoshi Kuriyama cautioned, however, that we shouldn't take the global launch for granted as there are still many hurdles. '[Sony] still has a number of obstacles to surmount before it can achieve a simultaneous global launch of PS3 in November. We will need to keep close tabs on whether any further delays emerge because postponing the launch will worsen the company's competitive position,' he said in a research note."
Analyst says, "Woohoo! Something insignificant hasn't happened yet, so I get to analyze it! Ooh! Maybe I'll analyze some other analyst's analysis! I love my job!"
Attention deficit disorder is a complicated issue, spanning several major... HEY LET'S GO RIDE BIKES!
* 1,500,000 polygons per second, flat-shaded
* 500,000 polygons per second, textured
Playstation, reality:
* 360,000 polygons per second, flat-shaded
* 180,000 polygons per second, textured
Playstation 2, promised:
* 66,000,000 polygons per second
Playstation 2, reality:
* 7,000,000 polygons per second
Meanwhile, those who are honest and try not to overpromise get screwed up the pooper:
Dreamcast, promised:
* 3,000,000 polygons per second
Dreamcast, reality:
* 5,000,000 polygons per second
Circumcision is child abuse.
Bill Gates had previously stated he planned to release around the time of Playstation 3. Microsoft distanced themselves from those comments after it was apparent that Halo 3 wouldn't be ready in time, but with Playstation 3's delay this could once again become a threat to them.
Repeat after me: there is no US delay. This is a delay in Japan.
Halo 3 in Japan will sell somewhere between four and six copies. So I doubt Sony is any more worried about this today than they were yesterday.
The US plan officially has always been to launch the PS3 "this year." The only region to get an actual launch period was Japan, which was going to be "spring" of 2006. Given that, you can extrapolate from the launches of the PS1 and PS2 (which had Japan/US launches that were staggered by nearly a year in the PS1's case and around 8 months in the PS2's case) that the PS3 was probably going to arrive here before Christmas, but not much before. Most people had expected Thanksgiving or thereabouts.
But the bottom line is you can't "delay" something that has never had a launch date to begin with, or even a launch month. Nothing more specific than 2006 was ever announced for the US before today. The delay affects Japan and Japan alone, so any talk of MS taking advantage of the situation is misguided. MS can no more exploit the situation as it exists today than they could exploit the situation that existed 3 weeks ago, because that situation hasn't changed in the west.
My only guess about how all this confusion is happening even among supposedly highly-paid analysts is that somehow either a simultaneous launch had always been assumed (because, you know, MS did it) or some of these guys just simply failed to differentiate between regions. Not all of these guys are experienced enough to have been dealing with the game industry even back when the PS2 was launched. These analysts often deal with many different industries and they're not always as on top of things as it seems.
It's shame to see all that spin go to waste- we should attach magnets to these analysts and generate some electricity.
"Why in the hell do people like you give so much weight to these numbers?"
A lot of people treat game console purchases as investments. The rationale is similar to "I'll buy a $4,000 PC now because it'll 'last' longer." The theory runs like this: "the greater the specs, the more impressive the games will be towards the end of the system's life cycle. Towards the end of the cycle, the machine with the better specs is the one that's going to get the more ambitious titles." There is some data to support this. (Note: I'm not saying it's strong rationale, but I can see how some would see it this way.) Compare the SNES to the Genesis. Towards the end of both system's life cycles, the SNES had Donkey Kong Country and the Genesis had Vector man. Both were beautiful games, but DKC outshined VM. Saturn vs. Playstation? I think most of us know which clobbered the other. It would also be totally reasonable to say that the DC wouldn't have aged as gracefully as the PS2, GC, and the XBOX. (Amusingly, I don't think the N64 rocked the boat like it could have in this case...)
Frankly, all three systems are a gamble. Nobody is buying any of these systems knowing what will be coming down the line in the next 5 years. The best that can be done is to look at the system's potential. There is this fear that they'll buy the system, and it'll turn out to be a dud purchase. Ask anybody who's purchased a Jaguar. So what do you do? Well, specs, when assessed properly, are about the only tangibles we have. I have faith that Nintendo will create some excellent titles for the Revolution. But do I actually know that? Really, I don't. I do know, however, the type of processor the XBOX 360 has. I know how much RAM it has. I can look at that and make a mental estimation of what it'll be capable of. These are numbers I can work with. That sort of make sense?
In any event, I don't think specs alone are going to make or break these systems. All three are designed around 3D gaming. (as opposed to the Saturn vs. the Playstation, the Saturn was leaned too far towards 2D.) The artists are going to make a much bigger difference than the hardware. Take Resident Evil 4. Very impressive game. Despite the technical differences between the PS2 and the GameCube, it came out pretty much the same. I realize I'm taking the scenic route here, but I'm basically saying that I agree with you. Fuck polycounts, they don't matter anymore. I just hope that Nintendo's not stupid enough to develop the Rev with a big enough bottleneck to make the games feel watered down in comparison.
"I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)