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Analysts React to PS3 Delay
GameDailyBiz has a piece looking at some professional analyst opinion on what the PS3 delay means for Sony. From the article: "Merrill Lynch analyst Hitoshi Kuriyama cautioned, however, that we shouldn't take the global launch for granted as there are still many hurdles. '[Sony] still has a number of obstacles to surmount before it can achieve a simultaneous global launch of PS3 in November. We will need to keep close tabs on whether any further delays emerge because postponing the launch will worsen the company's competitive position,' he said in a research note."
Analyst says, "Woohoo! Something insignificant hasn't happened yet, so I get to analyze it! Ooh! Maybe I'll analyze some other analyst's analysis! I love my job!"
Attention deficit disorder is a complicated issue, spanning several major... HEY LET'S GO RIDE BIKES!
* 1,500,000 polygons per second, flat-shaded
* 500,000 polygons per second, textured
Playstation, reality:
* 360,000 polygons per second, flat-shaded
* 180,000 polygons per second, textured
Playstation 2, promised:
* 66,000,000 polygons per second
Playstation 2, reality:
* 7,000,000 polygons per second
Meanwhile, those who are honest and try not to overpromise get screwed up the pooper:
Dreamcast, promised:
* 3,000,000 polygons per second
Dreamcast, reality:
* 5,000,000 polygons per second
Circumcision is child abuse.
with Playstation 3's delay this could once again become a threat to them
I'm sorry, are you suggesting that there is some sort of curve where launching the PS3 now would be less damaging to the 360's position than 6 months from now?
Rex is 09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
Bill Gates had previously stated he planned to release around the time of Playstation 3. Microsoft distanced themselves from those comments after it was apparent that Halo 3 wouldn't be ready in time, but with Playstation 3's delay this could once again become a threat to them.
Repeat after me: there is no US delay. This is a delay in Japan.
Halo 3 in Japan will sell somewhere between four and six copies. So I doubt Sony is any more worried about this today than they were yesterday.
The US plan officially has always been to launch the PS3 "this year." The only region to get an actual launch period was Japan, which was going to be "spring" of 2006. Given that, you can extrapolate from the launches of the PS1 and PS2 (which had Japan/US launches that were staggered by nearly a year in the PS1's case and around 8 months in the PS2's case) that the PS3 was probably going to arrive here before Christmas, but not much before. Most people had expected Thanksgiving or thereabouts.
But the bottom line is you can't "delay" something that has never had a launch date to begin with, or even a launch month. Nothing more specific than 2006 was ever announced for the US before today. The delay affects Japan and Japan alone, so any talk of MS taking advantage of the situation is misguided. MS can no more exploit the situation as it exists today than they could exploit the situation that existed 3 weeks ago, because that situation hasn't changed in the west.
My only guess about how all this confusion is happening even among supposedly highly-paid analysts is that somehow either a simultaneous launch had always been assumed (because, you know, MS did it) or some of these guys just simply failed to differentiate between regions. Not all of these guys are experienced enough to have been dealing with the game industry even back when the PS2 was launched. These analysts often deal with many different industries and they're not always as on top of things as it seems.
It's shame to see all that spin go to waste- we should attach magnets to these analysts and generate some electricity.
Good God, who gives a crap about polygons?! While you are sitting there staring at your spec sheet for your console, I am playing Zelda, Mario, Jak and Daxter, Metal Gear, Halo, Soul Caliber, and loads of other games that are fun. Why in the hell do people like you give so much weight to these numbers? True game fans appreciate the game for the game, not how it looks. I am sorry that you feel like you were betrayed by some of these game companies, to the point of bringing this crap up all the freakin' time, but judge the system by what it plays, not the MIPS it is capable of. If the games aren't fun and they promised fun, then bitch!
November is just affirmation of the more important and effective Europe and Americas launch.
Secondly, the delay will allow for the unit costs of the components to decrease to a level where the risks of loss-leading are significantly reduced.
If the delay is Blu-Ray related, as I have been hearing on CNBC all day, then the component cost for that piece alone will depreciate significantly.
The difference between a loss of $150/unit and $190/unit (just speculation, here, no flames) would be huge.
My only question here is whether I will be twisting off (diet) Coke or Pepsi (I'm a fat fuck)to try to get one.
Game: Player 'Donald J Trump' now has AI skill level 'experimental'.
Millions of European gamers are breaking open the champagne...
There are that many?
Actually, I thought they had confirmed the delay in Japn until Fall of this year. That pushed back the US release until Spring 07.
So far, Sony has done nothing to deny the Merryl Lynch report... well, they initially denied the delay, but now they confirm it. Nothing has been said about the cost of the unit, BOM over $800 - if true, means the unit will definitely NOT be under $500, as that is far too much of a loss to take on each unit (unless the games sell for $80-100 each)
Of course, don't take my word for it...
"I'm going to only say that it'll be expensive. I'm aware that with all these technologies, the PS3 can't be offered at a price that's targeted towards households." - Sony's Ken Kutaragi
So expect units to sell for at least $650-700, and at that price, Sony is taking a huge bath; but also, it would be angering and alienating vendors of BD Players, which expect to sell for even more than that.
Hmmmm....
Honestly, it seems that Sony is doing everything in their power to kill the Playstation line. Fanboyism aside, you should at least understand the basic facts and realities of the situation.Oh, come on. You seem to be proceeding on the assumptions that a) a significant percentage of the owners of the other two consoles didn't have Xbox as well and b) the console market is the same as it was in 2001 (it's not).
Halo 2 was one of the biggest videogame releases ever, and a huge percentage of the people who bought and loved Halo 2 still don't have an Xbox 360. Thus, a large number of those people will have increased interest in the Xbox 360 when Halo 3 is released, and I'm sure many of those folks will have to choose between Xbox 360 and PS3 - a choice in which available games (particularly one which they've been anticipating) will play an important part.
Again, I'm not a big Halo fan myself (just not that into FPS games anymore). But the idea that the first two games haven't generated a huge fanbase - a fanbase that will want to play the third game ASAP - is without merit.
Further, if we're going to use history as a guide, the PS2 launch lineup sucked hard. If the PS3 doesn't have a strong batch of games, the launch could really turn sour with the 360 getting its year-two lineup (not to mention the fact that there will be many 360s in stock by then while the PS3 could end up being another hard-to-find console at launch)...
In case anyone is curious, a list of the best selling console games of all-time is here.
Heres some entries on the list of the Top 20:
1. Super Mario Bros. 3 (NES - 17.28 million)
2. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (PS2 - 12 million)
4. Super Mario 64 (N64 - 11.62 million)
6. Gran Turismo (PS1 - 10.5 million)
7. Super Mario All-Stars (SNES - 10.5 million)
15. Halo 2 (Xbox - 7 million)
Apparently they are on track to have enough units to ship about 500k systems to Japan in June but have decided to go for a simultaneous launch in all three territories in November with millions of units.
That would have been awesome. Customers getting final PS3 hardware before game devs. rofl
I was watching AOTS (Tivo treatement makes it okay) and they brought on Adam Sessler on to comment on it, and he brought up an important point:
We all saw the train wreck that was the 360's worldwide release. Not enough units to meet demand by far.
And sony's trying this themselves.
So Sony's gonna have a difficult launch with shortages probably everywhere. and a launch lineup that is probably not going to be stupendous (what launch has been that good?), meanwhile Microsoft will have significantly more units on hand, a year's worth of titles to choose from, not to mention more than a few good ones by November, and the promise of Halo 3.
Sure, there's the whole "latest greatest thing" part, but how long do you think it'll last?
Maybe sony would be better off doing a Japan only release first, if they don't think they can meet preorders worldwide.
Oh, but right, the industry makes all of their money in November and December...
Beyond the Polygons : Because 50,000 polygo
Volume production of Cell chips for the PS3 is underway along with the RSX rasterizer for the system
uh huh.....and nVidia publically stating that they are not recieving any payments for RSX chips this quarter (thus meaning that they're likely not producing them yet) seems to tell a different story.
Given Sony's history of flat-out lying about the capabilities of their consoles, and nVidia's recent record of solid product launches, I'm going to have to trust nVidia over Sony (or a Sony employee, as you seeem to be).
I used to get high on life, but I developed a tolerance. Now I need something stronger.
It amuses me how wrong you actually are.
You try and speak as one with insider knowledge but whoever you are getting this from is completely barking up the wrong tree.
My best friend recently stopped working for sony and he knows exactly whats going on.
Get this, the sony devs themselves don't have final hardware yet. (ie SCEE, and US etc) Do you think many games will be released in November when all the 3rd party devs will only have received (according to Sony) final dev kits in June??? Currently the devs have no idea how games will run on the final ps3. In fact 3rd party devs only just received final versions of the graphics card. Given that the ps3 is officially the hardest console to develop for ever, do you really think sony will have any line up worth a crap if they released in November?
At least with xbox 360 the main processor is powerful to run games that havent been properly optimised for all three cores. Whereas with ps3, you NEED to really optimise your code for CELL, which basically means every dev to basically start coding differently then they have done for years.
You can believe me or not, I dont particularly give a damn. But come November you will see that Sony is full of bs. If it does release it will be Japan only, in small amounts with a paltry lineup.
if they keep 70% of the ps2 user base - they still have enough revenue to ride well into the next decade.
Nintendo has a reputation for strong consumer loyalty. Let's see how their userbase retention has fared over the years.
NES - 62 million consoles sold worldwide
SNES - 49 million - 79% retention
N64 - 33 million - 67% retention
GC - 20 million - 61% retention
So a 70% retention rate for Sony isn't too inconceivable -- provided that the new console costs about as much as the previous one did, as Nintendo's have. If the PS3 has an MSRP of $600, you're not going to see many casual PS2-owning gamers making the upgrade.
[Xbox 360] damn near does everything except make dinner.
Or play games that aren't combat or sports simulations. Okay, there are some, but there's really nothing on the 360 to woo (for example) RPG fans.
they haven't sold non-gamers enough to make it a good value home entertainment center
Because it isn't one. To do much of anything home-entertainmenty with it besides playing games or watching DVDs, you need a $1500 Media Center PC for the 360 to stream content from.