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The Future of the PDA
An anonymous reader writes "XYZComputing is taking a look at the future of the PDA and what obstacles might stand in the way of continued popularity. From the article: 'While is hard not to appreciate the PDA's ability to change with the times, it appears that its heady days of mobile dominance are coming to an abrupt end. A number of factors are competing in the mobile products field right now, all of which are vying for the same buyers. The most formidable competition to the PDA is the smartphone, but there is also pressure from small laptops, the upcoming UMPC, increasingly capable cell phones, and a few other takers, like portable media players.'"
I wrote a couple of articles about where I thought the PDA might be going back in 2002 and 2005. Specifically, I'd suppose (hope) that it might see a resurgence through the iPod phenomenon.
.Mac subscription/connectivity to enable syncing with your desktop/laptop and provide a cell phone service implemented like iChat, I suspect it could be highly profitable.
We really have not seen a whole lot of innovation in the PDA market aside from color screens and somewhat faster CPUs since Palm and then Microsoft entered the market. The first device that truly works as an assistant that is affordable will, like Palm did in the 90's take over the market again. Phone use will be required, but could easily function with a Bluetooth earpiece. It will have to have a big enough screen in portrait or landscape mode to surf the web (surfing the web on my Tungsten T3 sucks), will have to be able to plug into a projector and deliver Keynote (or Powerpoint) presentations, read and annotate pdf's, have an honest 4-5hr battery life (ideally more, but this will depend upon new battery technology or fuel cells), be rugged, have a decent way to enter information through a keyboard (real or virtual) and be reasonably affordable.
The Newton was the original UMPC and did many things very well (including handwriting recognition in the 110 and up), but were waaaay too expensive for their time. I had a 110 and a 120 that I used for years before they simply could not keep up, but that form factor is still ideal. Put a color screen in it, run OS X on a flash drive along with global band cell phone connectivity, 802.11 and Bluetooth and if you can sell it for $700-800 or so, you have the ideal PDA. That may be cutting the margins thin, but if Apple could sell it along with
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It doesn't even need a color screen, though grayscale would be nice just for legibility reasons.
A 20mhz or so CPU should suffice, if even that much is needed. It would be cool if it could fit in the credit card holder of my wallet (most wallets suck as it is, when you are limited to the subset of wallets that can carry a PDA, it becomes really hard to find a non-cruddy one), and has a week long battery life or some such. Oh yes, and STATIC MEMORY. Honestly, only 4 or so megs are needed.
Price? No more than $50.
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The UMPC, in its current form and price (and usability) will not be an issue in the "downfall" of the PDA. It may have the ability to sideline the PDA in some markets and applications, but those will be relatively limited. Onto my real point. . .
"Increasingly capable cellphones", as the summary puts it, will be the real challenge to the PDA. Many people bought PDAs to be electronic datebooks, address books, and the like. Some people felt it worthwhile to carry them, others (myself included) found it to be a hassle. Cellphones, on the other hand, are far more likely to make it into our pockets. The natural evolution was to add PDA-like functionality. So PDAs evolved into cellphones or cellphones evolved into PDAs. I would argue that there are examples of both (the Treo being a phonified PDA and Series 60 devices being PDAified cellphones).
My take home message is thus: The PDA is not dead. It has merely evolved thanks to the advent of widespread mobile phones. If we look at some current cellphones, many have more power than the original Palm Pilots. About the only thing they lack is a more sophisticated input method (that may be arguable, though, when T9 is compared to Graffiti).
Some manufacturers will still make "pure" PDAs, but the PDA is not dead. The PDA has merely evolved.
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The current crop of PocketPCs stink. I'm anxious to upgrade, but here is what I am finding:
:(
- NONE offer PCMCIA support (rendering my 5GB HDD useless)
- If you want 128MB or more of RAM, the highest resolution you will get is quarter-VGA (320x240)
- If you want VGA (640x480) resolution, the most RAM you'll get is 64MB
- Lack of accessories (e.g., high capacity batteries)
Thanks to Carly Fiorina canning the iPaq line (she basically brought back the inferior Journada line) expansion capability of the PocketPC is nil, and the quality has only gone downhill. I'm glad she got fired but she managed to kill the PocketPC platform just as it was gaining steam. I still use my 3670 but I need more RAM, higher resolution, a faster CPU, and expansion capability.
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I think there is a market for PDAs, but not as they are currently configured.
Most of the current uses of a PDA will probably be ceded to smartphones (calendar, address book, tasklist, calculator, MP3 player, etc).
The one advantage that a PDA could have is that its form factor has traditionally been small enough to be truly portable and almost large enough that tasks that are next to impossible on phones' small screens (e.g., surfing the Web, using interactive applications) can actually be performed on them without too much user frustration.
Who really likes using the Internet on a phone? Does anyone think that tablet PCs are really that portable (without a laptop bag)?
Therefore I think there would be a market for PDAs with good sized screens and Wifi/cellular data connections. People would use them as an appliance to surf the Internet and for other applications that required more screen real estate than a phone has. The real killer machine would be about the size of a checkbook (so it fits in your pocket) and flips open to reveal two screens that fit up against each other almost seamlessly, thus doubling screen size.
I think UMPCs are too big, and smartphones too small to be truly portable yet usable Internet appliances. PDAs could fit that niche (thus blurring the distinction between them and UMPCs).
Compare the installed base of PDAs (either by model, by manufacturer, or by the class of devices as a whole) to the installed base of portable gaming devices (GameBoy, et. al.), and you might see *one* possible direction for the PDA. Previously, games were popular on a PDA, but the limitations (speed, memory, battery life, etc.) made it evident that portable gaming on a PDA wasn't enough to keep the PDA craze alive as we knew it. The Nintendo DS, though, is already starting to look more and more like a PDA every day: there's a homebrew organizer (http://www.youngmx.com/?loc=ndsdev/DSOrganize), a Linux project (http://dslinux.org/), and even a game that features puzzles aimed at/successful with older people (http://www.nintendo.com/gamemini?gameid=tYVqJgro- KG6QL_mMbXFoQTkQIzgi9nU). The fact that it has touch/stylus input and 802.11b is enough to get one's mental gears turning at the possible confluence of a gaming idiom and personal information management idiom in a single device.
Perhaps the change will come from the other direction. As millions and millions more Nintendo DS units (and Sony PSP units, for that matter) are sold, we may get a population of generally older, more sophisticated portable gamers who demand a bit more functionality from their handheld devices -- the very same functionality that a stripped-down, basic PDA would have provided. Instead of a feature-rich-but-mostly-underused PDA that can play games, we might have a gaming-device-that-also-holds-my-calendar that can read e-mails. And I guarantee you that there are more GameBoys out there than Palms.
iPAQ hw6515 is a step in the right direction: it is a PDA with an ability to make phone calls. It has PocketPC OS with its advantages and disadvantages. You can make phone calls, surf the web, listen to MP3s, send e-mails, take photos and find out where you are - yes, it has a GPS module, too. The "qwerty" keyboard is quite handy and beats T9 systems without a doubt. The software has few quirks and takes few days to learn. Setting up secure email submission is difficult if not outright impossible but I guess this was never MS priority.
Doesn't PDA stand for Portable Digital Assistant? If you're cell phone is digital and it assists you in some way isn't it then a PDA? Same with laptops and media players. How can they "compete" with PDA's when them themselves are PDA's? Stupid....
that's why I bought mine, but I evolved and now use it as much as a PDA as a GPS. I hope this article is wrong, but I fear that the ubiquity of the cellphone and the well recognized need for integration of portable devices will push the format more towards a phone form and less toward a PDA. This is a shame as the PDA is in my opinion a far better interface and could easily accommodate gps, bluetooth phone, media player, and simple camera functions.
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I had a Newton long ago. It was a very nice device. It was big and heavy because it was ahead of it's time, but the interface was quite nice. If Apple were to release a new Newton (or whatever they decide to call it) that was nothing more than iCan and Address Book I would be happy. VERY happy. They could add more and make it a full-fledged PDA (SafariMini, iMail2Go, whatever) I would only be happier. Someone with a decent UI touch is badly needed. I've heard rumors that the touch-screen iPod will do this (we'll see if that even exists) and if it does I will gladly upgrade.
Or imagine how long it could last without a charge if it used ePaper? They could make it the size of a PC Card (like the old Rex PDAs) with a touch screen. Considering all the high-rez high-color screens we see out there (in phones, other PDAs, digital cameras, PSPs and DSes, etc.) they could put a great screen in there and have good battery life if they didn't go the ePaper route.
PDAs are OK, but they have enough problems that I can see why more people wouldn't want them (especially if your phone is half-decent and can sync with your computer, stupid Sprint crippleware LG PM-325).
Give me an OLD Newton. Same as it was. Just shrink it (as would be trivial with today's technology) and make it sync with iCal and AddressBook and I'd be happy.
Please Apple, give us a good PDA. You did it for computers, you did it for digital music players, do it for PDAs.
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There's a lot of different device categories out there, but only so much space in peoples' pockets or in their minds. Two interactive devices, perhaps three if one is special purpose, is probably the limit.
On the high end, small and light notebooks are good enough today that they work as real computers - I have a Panasonic R3, and it's my only computer. I meant to get a real desktop as a complement, but I just never got arond to it. Whenever I have my bag with me (and I usually have), it comes along. And it is a far better platform for "computing" than any PDA out there. If I were to get a PDA again, it would have to be something that complements this one on the low end.
On the other end, my current, normal (not a smartphone) phone is capable of most incidental things I need. Calling (not that I actually speak that often), email, music player, small text reader (directions, schedule and the like), alarm clock, dictionary - web surfing too, though I don't use it much. It's certainly not perfect - the screen resolution does equal that of my old PalmIII, and is in color and much easier to read, but is of course smaller - but it is always with me and it is _good_enough_.
A PDA would have to displace either my phone or my computer for me to consider one again. And to do that it would have to do what the lost gadget did at least reasonably well, and give me something extra - some compelling functionality that would make it interesting to switch in the first place. I am not aware of any such functionality today.
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My biggest beaf with smartphone/PDA's is that (in the US) they are exclusive to the cell phone company for the most part. They have a vested interest in NOT supporting WiFi, and DEFINATELY not VoIP via WiFi. Some companies (Verizon) also make it nearly impossible to install non-verizon applications on it, or deliberately cripple a device that was originally capable of doing much more.
You end up with abortions like the Treo which is a really crappy phone and a pretty crappy PDA. Hell, you can't even get a decent simple phone with bluetooth without also getting the crappy MP3 player and crappy camera (and crippled bluetooth as well.) Furthermore, if you want to send an email they seem to want to tack on another $50 / month on top of a $60 voice plan. Considering DSL can now be had for $20/month, that's insane. Ya, it's wireless, but still...
Now that's not to say that someone couldn't do one of these combo units RIGHT, but given history it is extremely unlikely that we will see it done well in the near future. The cell phone companies just don't get it.
So anyway, I'm still waiting for something like a modern Zaurus which Sharp seems to have discontinued in the US for the most part. Nobody else seems to have anything close. Considering I can get a 1G SD card for $80 retail, these little 64M PDA's are just toys. Give me some ROOM man! Give my the ability to REALLY sync my mailbox which is running about 360M now... Frankly, I don't Need it to be a cellphone - not that I really want to put a brick up to my ear anyway, but I'd use it with a bluetooth headset. And VoIP over WiFi is mandetory.
Know what I want? Components! Make a variety of displays that are basically thin clients (via X11-over-Bluetooth? RDP? Whatever, just as long as it's the standard). Make a variety of processing units. Make a variety of input devices. Make a variety of speaker/headphone/microphone units. Most importantly, make multiple brands work together seamlessly. Convergence? I want divergence by piecing together the set of interoperable parts that fit the way I want to use them!
In my dream setup, I sit down at a public access point and get my 8" screen and compact keyboard out of my bag. That's it. I'm set up and ready to use it. They both talk wirelessly to the real processor which is squirreled away in my messenger bag and only sees the light of day when I need to recharge it. If a cell or VOIP call comes in, it's automatically transferred to my wireless earpiece.
Us geeks will always have the iPod-sized processing equivalent of an overclocked Celeron, but Joe Businessman can buy a quad-Xeon unit and car battery on wheels to power it. Maybe I'm just going to the grocery store, so I'd only take the 3" touchscreen (so I can mark off my shopping list as I go). Have to give a presentation? Bind to the projector client in the conference room until it's over.
I truly think this is the future. I want a cheap Dell processing box that never leaves my shirt pocket, or beltclip, or whatever. I want a nice Samsung client to display it's output. I want a Happy Hacking portable keyboard for input. See, ever since Palm discontinued the IIIxe, their hasn't been a single model of PDA from any manufacturer that covers all the features I want. Dell might not make as much per individual item by selling the components separately, but I truly believe that they'd make a killing by hawking vast numbers of the smaller pieces. No PC maker that I know of sells monolithic PC-screen-keyboard-mouse desktop units, but that's exactly how they expect you to buy your portable electronics.
Wake up, Apple and Dell! There's a whole untapped market of people who'd love to customize their PDAs, particularly those people who have never used one (start off with a cheap CPU and upgrade it later if you like it). And the thing is that all of the hardware, software, wireless tech, and protocols are in common use that could make this happen today.
Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?
I remember reading that back when the first Palm Pilot was being developed, there was a mantra among the developers to the effect that "If it doesn't fit in my pocket, it won't be in my pocket."
;-)
This is why I'd predict that the "smartphone" will win over the "PDA". The gadgets that are being marketed as PDAs now mostly are physically too large for the typical shirt pocket.
My wife even has a Treo, but she mostly leaves it home on the desk, because it's "too big", and carries a tiny cell phone that's just a phone. The Treo doesn't get used much, except for the few games she has loaded. (She loves the Sudoku puzzles.
For several years, I had a Kyocera smartphone, which I used a lot as both phone and PDA. At least I did, until it lost its calendar, and when I tried to reload from backup, it "backed up" its (empty) calendar, wiping out the backup. So I went back to a paper pocket calendar, which is more powerful anyway.
When it started dying, due to a company subsidy I got a CrackBerry. It also fits in my pocket, and is a fairly good phone, but otherwise not too useful. Now that I don't work there any more, and pay for it myself, I find that it's not worth the money. If you're not on an Outlook email system, its email is fairly cruddy and difficult to use. Its browsers are all cruddy, not much better than the initial Mosaic release. And our attempts to use it as a modem all came to naught. (Yeah, the salesmen said it would work, but after the company signed the deal and gave us developers the BBs, we found that RIM's CS people couldn't be bothered to answer our question.) So much for the idea that it would get our laptops connected where there was no wifi.
Frankly, the things are mostly a waste of money, unless you have one with software tailored for the one job you need it for.
I keep hoping the handhelds.org people will come up with a way to do a pocket-size gadget that does GSM/GPRS/wifi and can also talk IP across a USB and/or Bluetooth link. With linux on board, including ssh, I could program the rest of the stuff myself, and we won't have to deal with the obtruction from the phone companies who insist on locking us out of the most useful stuff.
Yeah, I know; I'm dreaming. There's no way the US phone companies will allow a pipsqueak like me to use "their" infrastructure for my own development purposes.
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