Mass Microsoft Defections to Apple Possible

An anonymous reader writes to mention a MacWorld article covering research by the Forrester group. Their report shows that mass dissatisfaction with Microsoft and its products could lead to defections from the company. From the article: "Over all, only Apple and Tivo saw their brand trust rise in the last two years, according to the report. The final tally saw Bose, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Panasonic and Sony earn the highest marks, while Microsoft, Gateway and LG ranked lowest. The low scores for Microsoft could mean good news for Apple as consumers showed their distrust of the Redmond-based software-giant."

Comments

Are we reading the same data?

[BadAnalogyGuy]

I don't mean to be pedantic, but Dell, HP, Panasonic, and Sony all make Microsoft Windows PCs. Apple is the only company that makes Apple computers. If my calculations are correct, Apple is the one with continued minimal marketshare and Microsoft will ride along with those aforementioned four to grand success.

If all your sales outlets have really high customer satisfaction, it's not really a big deal if your customers hate your guts.

Re:Are we reading the same data?

[jocknerd]

That's good to know because Apples tend to be 60% overpriced anyway. I guess you can call it a deposit.

Enough with the overpriced BS. Prove it to me. You show me any PC that can match every spec on an iMac or MacBook Pro that costs 60% less.

Re:Are we reading the same data?

[GutBomb]

That's true. The real problem for Microsoft would be if Dell starts selling (and advertising) PCs with Linux. Consumers trust Dell, so if Dell says it is good, they will buy it.

consumers would stop trusting dell as soon as they got their computer and can't run all the easy to use and easy to install software that dells are supposed to be able to run because of this weird "linux" thing they have on their computer. It will never happen in the consumer market.

Re:Are we reading the same data?

[JavaSavant]

Tell me where you can sell your 2 year old PC for nearly 60% of it's value and easily get it sold. Apple's usually get that premium.

This is true. It's also true that Apple lives in a different horizontal from Sony, Dell, HP, etc. and has NO competition in that horizontal. IBM clones - the modern PC - allow for competition amongst hardware manufacturers and hence that competition has driven prices down for new PC's. When they are put back into circulation on the used market, they have to compete with the fact that a new PC is priced dramatically lower than a new Macintosh. OTOH, Apple pretty much has a stranglehold as to how their PC's are priced, and because there is no competition in that horizontal to force apple to lower it's prices - you can put a used Macintosh up for sale at 60% or 70% of it's original value, and because there's enough demand for 1) Macs and 2) Used macs that are still a solid product and yet cost less than their newer counterparts, people will still buy them at a higher premium then they pay for a used PC. Apple has the benefit of being the only name in their game - they are allowed to price their new PC's the way they do because of that initial quality, but the retained value is almost purely a result of the lack of competition in the new Macinstosh market and a demand for lesser-priced macs. If you want to really entertain your brain, think about how wise apple would be to offer a trade-up program to keep used mac's off the general market. It's very likely that such a move would allow them to charge an even higher premium for a new Mac because then there is no price competition in their horizontal *at all.*

Re:Are we reading the same data?

[Gannoc]

Does the dell have a x1600 video card with 256m of dedicated memory or does it use shared ram? That is a pretty big difference in terms of price. You can play World of Warcraft and edit video on your MacBook. I wouldn't try that with the Dell.

Re:Are we reading the same data?

[Scyber]

Dell = No Bluetooth, No DVD Burner, No Gigabit Ethernet, 20GB less HD space, No built in webcam & much worse graphics.

While I still think that Apples are priced highly, you do get alot of features built into the system.

Re:Are we reading the same data?

[nine-times]

I'd also like to compare size/weight. Most Dell laptops I've seen are pretty thick, ugly plastic, and the Macbook Pro is pretty light. You pay a premium for those things also.

It's like when people look to compare Mac minis to Dell Dimensions, and they note that the Dells are cheaper for the same stats... but then you have to look at the form factor. The closest thing Dell offers is the Ultra-small form factor Optiplexes, which are still bigger than the Mac minis. Suddenly, the minis don't look that expensive.

Re:Are we reading the same data?

[badasscat]

Dell = No Bluetooth, No DVD Burner, No Gigabit Ethernet, 20GB less HD space, No built in webcam & much worse graphics.

While I still think that Apples are priced highly, you do get alot of features built into the system.

A lot of which are useless for most people. Are laptop webcams in any danger of becoming standard-issue items? Are most people's homes wired for gigabit ethernet (heck, are most businesses)?

I think a big part of Apple's perception problem is that they focus so highly on the high end where you get diminishing returns for extra features and specs. A PC with exactly the same specs as the $2,000 MacBook Pro probably would cost close to $2,000, but a PC with 90% of the features specs of the MacBook Pro might only cost $1,000. In fact, I just went to HP's site right now and built a PC with everything the MacBook Pro has except the webcam and the gigabit ethernet, and with a 64 bit AMD CPU and a 1280x800 screen, and the total was $1,033.99. That's still with a DL DVD burner, ATI graphics card w/ 128MB dedicated, 1GB of system RAM, same hard drive, etc.

I mean the question is what are you paying literally 100% more for? Most people just aren't going to see it. Yeah, component-wise, maybe Apple is pretty close to what those specific components cost. But they could choose only *slightly* less powerful stuff and shave a huge amount off the price. They choose not to do that, and that gives them the perception of being overpriced.

I realize they have the iBook line, but until they actually update/replace that line, it's really a joke at this point. Nobody takes a G4 seriously anymore, and the $1,000 HP laptop I just priced absolutely blows the doors off the $1,000 iBook. (Again, I realize the iBook is smaller and lighter, but when you're comparing overall specs and features, it appears the iBook is way overpriced.)

Re:Are we reading the same data?

[Total_Wimp]

It's hillarious that people are arguing which is better. Which is better is not relevant. What's relevant is that Microsoft OSs currently have a lock on the market for applications that are commonly desired by a wide range of consumers and businesses. Even a huge number of desirable web apps do not work as well with non-MS browsers. As long as this is the case, neither Apple, Linux or any other kind of OS has any real chance of dethoning the king.

Apple may make better computers and may have a superior OS. That will not be enough to have consumers or businesses switching in numbers significant enough to threaten Microsoft's monopoly.

TW

Re:Are we reading the same data?

[Krach42]

Rofl, so out of an examination of which one is cheaper to the consumer, you want to disregard one because it is too cheap? Where did you get these incredible debate skills?

I'm not discussing which is cheaper to the consumer. I'm talking about value to the customer.

Where did I get these incredible debate skills? It's called reality.

Reality: Dell has razor thin margins, because they can afford it, and it makes their computers cheaper.

Reality: Apple doesn't have thin margins, they have very fat margins. Then that's how they make their money.

Reality: Dells are cheaper systems than Apple

Reality: I still wouldn't buy a Dell unless I had to.

You're perfectly free to vote with your wallet to say that you want the cheapest hunk of metal on the earth, and a design that hasn't changed significantly over the last 5 years.

Meanwhile, I'm perfectly free to vote with my wallet, and say I don't just care about something being cheap.

To me, money isn't the most important thing in the world that drives every purchase decision in my life. Money just doesn't drive and control my life and purchasing decisions.

Again, you're entirely free to make your own choice, I'm not arguing AGAINST you, I'm arguing around you. Saying that the money isn't what's important to me. Apple provides things that Dell doesn't, and I like Apple more than Dell. That is why I buy Apples.

I just want people to understand that some of us are grounded in reality, and realize that Apple computers are more expensive. I'm just saying that that's not the only thing that counts.

Re:Are we reading the same data?

[MobileTatsu-NJG]

"Dell = No Bluetooth, No DVD Burner, No Gigabit Ethernet, 20GB less HD space, No built in webcam & much worse graphics."

That's not a $1,300 difference.

Re:Are we reading the same data?

[guet]

Even a huge number of desirable web apps do not work as well with non-MS browsers.

Name them.

All the web-apps I use have to work around the years old bugs of IE, they don't deliver because of IE but in spite of it. This is 2005 and MSIE can't even render PNGs properly or render CSS 2. Last time I heard that kind of crap was about 4 years ago, I thought people had stopped coming out with it, but obviously not. Web apps which have made news over the last few years have conspicuously not based on IE - gmail, flikr, delicious, rss, podcasts spring to mind. This is what MS was afraid of and why they crushed Netscape.

It's hillarious that people are arguing which is better. Which is better is not relevant

On the contrary, it's relevant for a lot of people. If everyone had attitudes like yours we'd still be living with DOS (Windows was a direct reaction to Mac OS). Hell even DOS was bought from someone else and was a poor copy. Things like a global spell-check (try it on your post) or address book make a lot of difference in some peoples' computing life.

Are you as satisfied as you sound with the pitiful state of OS software and browsers over the last few years?

2 things keep MS dominant
Their aggressive (often illegal) tactics, OEM contracts, bundling, buyouts, embrace and extend
Ignorance amongst the buying public

Thankfully the last of those is starting to change - it's something to be welcomed, but feel free to keep your head in the sand and sneer at alternatives like it's 1999.

Re:Are we reading the same data?

[arminw]

....That's funny, plenty of people still use OS X despite the fact that it is not binary compatible with MS Windows....

Programs available for OSX are simple to install and are GUARANTEED to run on all Macs without any special user knowledge about specific flavors or configuration settings needed. Same is true for Windows. Can ONE binary program run on EVERY flavor of Linux on every computer that can normally run Windows? If a developer were to make a Linux program to sell at CompUSA, would it run on the same wide variety of computer that Windows runs on? When Linux can equal Windows or OSX in this ease of use, the Dells of this world will have an incentive to abandon MS.

Defect my butt

[Anonymous Coward]

All MS has to do is keep backward compatibility for legacy apps and most everyone already using it will simply stay with it.

Argh.

[superdan2k]

Okay, I'm a Mac geek, and as much as I'd like to see that, please, for fuck's sake, consider the source -- MacWorld has always been a pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking magazine. Back in the day, when Apple was one bad day from becoming a memory, MacWorld had a glowing-postive view of the future. A little success now, and they think that every bad review for Microsoft means that millions of users are just going to jump ship in a heartbeat.

I mean really? This is news? Product-specific magazine predicts rosy future for the product it reports on? No shit?

Re:Argh.

[MBCook]

It's true, if you ask me. I defected. I was sick of MS so I tried the change. There were other benefits (I got to have Unix, I got to try iLife), but I did it.

I help people around my area with computer problems, advise them on software, teach them how to do things, etc. Every single one hates windows. To them it's a bit like gas. No one likes paying for gas, but your car won't run without it. When I mention they have an alternative (Apple) many are somewhat interested. None of them want to go out and buy a new computer just for the OS, but they are fed up with MS. Even with the cost of having to learn a new OS (despite the similarities which they don't know of), they are ready to do almost anything to get a computer that "just works".

When it comes time to buy a new computer, many of them will be considering Macs. That may not be for two years or so (due to recent purchases or just hanging onto a computer for a long time), but if they ask me I'll be steering them towards Macs. I use my Mac at home and at school, doing all sorts of stuff. Then I get a call to fix a printer and have to go through tons of hassle to fix the printer on Windows. Or to make the internet work again. Or to remove spyware. Or to fix some odd windows problem (DNS just dies, only on one machine) that seems to require a reinstall to fix.

Windows is a pain. It always has been. It's gotten better, but not nearly enough. If I could turn back time and give all those people who I help a Mac instead of a PC I can not tell you how much easier of a time they would have had of things.

You won't see 20 million switchers a year. But they will switch. They've been doing it and it's been accelerating. Remember that with MS's market share, if even 1% of home users were to switch that would be a HUGE number. If this story gets "debunked" later and they say "only 0.25% of Windows users switched last year", remember that would be about a 10% boost to Apple's market share.

People are fed up. The only people I know who are NOT fed up with Windows are those who love to constantly tinker. I used to be that way, but I got tired of having to tinker. They will too one day.

If you build it, they will come.

If you advertise, they will come faster. I can't tell you how much Apple's sales would go up if they brought back the kind of ads they had during the first iMacs ("My family needed to do X and with their windows computer they had to do this and that and... and it didn't work. We plugged in my Mac and it worked instantly.").

I am not expecting a rush.

[jellomizer]

While most people distrust Microsoft, I wouldn't say a big influx will happen. True or Not most people even the ones who are considerably well "Tech smart" will probably stay with windows because they don't want change to that scale. Still most will look at the software available for Windows and how much for Mac. Even now that you can run windows on the Mac it doesn't alsways make sence for them to do so. Plus fears of needing new hardware, replaceing a lot of their extra cool stuff (even though it may work better on the mac) are afraid of loosing their investment and will not switch. Better the Devil you know then the Devil you don't

Re:I am not expecting a rush.

[happyemoticon]

While it's true that there is less software available on the mac platform, a lot of people have a poor conception of the problem, and think there's more competition in the PC space than there actually is.

For niche stuff there's definitely an issue. This hits home with me in the games department, but I understand that for some really specific business-related tasks it's a big hurdle to adoption as well.

Then there's what normal people do with their computers:

• Surf the web
• Write papers
• Send and recieve email
• Chat
• Accounting

That's about it. People who bitch about a big vaccuum of software on the Mac platform are still thinking in the 1990's, when the web was static and people published things like interactive, searchable Bibles and Microsoft Fucking Encarta. That stuff is like ice makers in a car: novel but totally unnecessary and easily replaceable by, say, getting ice from the freezer. It was an immature space and you had a lot of weird stuff out there, but now people realize it's less of a pain in the butt just to get it on the web for free or look at Wikipedia. Therefore, there are only five applications that people use:

IE - Office - Outlook - AIM - Quicken

Choice doesn't matter. Even though choices exist, 90% of people will use those 5 applications most of the time. It's a space where there's 31 flavors but everybody buys vanilla, and the clerk knows you want vanilla in advance so he starts scooping it and rings you up before you have a chance to say a word. In light of that, is it so horrible that on a Mac, you'll be using:

Safari - Office - Mail - iChat - Quicken

Oh noes! No ActiveX! Whatever shall I do? Furthermore, there are, in fact, alternatives to all of these. You could use Camino, Firefox, Shiira, OO.org, Opera, Thunderbird, Eudora, Fire, GAIM, Pages, or event Pine, Lynx, TeX, and centericq if you really, really like terminals. People have just been trained to think a certain way about the Mac/PC rift, and many of their ideas are sort of fossilized in 1996.

Proof the general public doesn't know jack

[Weaselmancer]

...about computers. Sony got high marks this year in customer confidence. That proves it pretty much.

Yes, mass defections are *possible*, but...

[JacksBrokenCode]

I wish the article had more numbers and less hypothesis. The gist seems to be "people distrust Microsoft, therefore Apple could get bigger." Now, how long has Forrester been conducting these surveys and for how many years in a row has Microsoft been un-trustworthy in the public eye? If 5 million MS users have distrusted MS for years but are still using Windows, the survey doesn't mean anything.

Of course "Mass Defections to Apple are Possible". But they've always been *possible* and yet Microsoft still holds the majority of the market share. Too bad this article couldn't shed more insight than "Survey confirms what Slashdot already believes - people don't trust Microsoft."

Why not?

[thesuperbigfrog]

If a Mac will run OS X and Windows, why wouldn't people defect from their PCs? They can still run Windows and try out using a computer with all of the niceties of their iPods.

After they get the hang of OS X, they will wonder why they ever tolerated Windows. . .

Trust report?

[grasshoppa]

Sony? Highest level of trust?

Sony?!

The public is either a mass of idiots waiting to be fleeced, or..uh...

I think I just answered my own question.

Trying a Mac

[MCSEBear]

The old school reasons for not even trying a Mac have fallen away. The old saw was that Macs used nonstandard parts that were more expensive. The truth is that you can buy a cheap Mac Mini which uses standard RAM and notebook hard drives, and has a socketed CPU which can be upgraded. You don't have to give up your investment in Windows software, since Boot Camp lets you run Windows on your Mac if you wish to. If you end up deciding that you don't like MacOSX then you have a very classy super small mini me Windows based computer. No wasted money.

Windows users who give MacOSX a try find that they like it quite a lot. Anand Lal Shimpi over at Anandtech.com springs to mind. Windows uber user Paul Thurott also couldn't review the CTP of Vista without saying "I have certain misgivings about Vista resembling Mac OS X. With its translucent windows, such comparisons are going to be hard to avoid. But Vista's similarity with OS X goes well beyond window dressing. Certain applications, such as Calendar, Sidebar, and Photo Gallery, appear to be directly, ahem, influenced by similar applications in OS X." This is an OS that geeks can't help but love once they use it.

The really amusing thing is now the Mac supports more software than Windows does. You can run everything that runs on Windows, everything that runs on MacOSX, plus quite a bit of the software that runs on Linux. It's geek nirvana.

There really isn't any reason not go give a Mac a chance anymore. I'm an MCSE (gee, did you guess from my handle?)and I like OSX quite a lot. I can't wait to see what they do in the next version of MacOSX since it looks like Vista is going to be used dog food.

Somewhat absurd

[joebooty]

The idea that thousands of employees would leave because some survey says the brand name is poor is absurd to me. MS is making a killing and their quarterly profits year in and out are unreal.

Who cares about some brand recognition study? These people are all supposed to ditch their stock and steady income over an article on the web? Give me a break.

Last I checked Walmart sure has a lot of employees. Do any of you associate walmart with high quality?

No news?

[Zebra_X]

"Microsoft faces big consumer defection risk: One measure of consumers' dissatisfaction with Microsoft is seen in the 5.4 million households that gave it a brand trust of 1 (distrust a lot) or 2 (distrust a bit),"

5.4 million customers? Such a staggering number, for Apple maybe. Really folks, how much revenue are these people going to generate for MS? A hundred bucks a pc, every 5 years?

If users need office they will have to buy it either way. In addition, it will be cheaper to buy the bundled version with a Windows based PC.

The salient point the article fails to make is that the real risk is to Apple. By not converting these people they miss out on revenue generated by hardware and software. Incidently, if you are a Mac owner, and you've paid for every major release of OS X, you've paid about $500 over the last 5 years for your operating system. Compare this with $120 (assuming 2k upgrade) for the last 5 years for an XP owner.

The article goes on to say that many people don't associate the iPod with Mac Computers. An interesting point - however it is going to be difficult for Apple to upsell people on a $3K computer, from a $300 purchase.

Who do you trust?

[gooman]

I use Microsoft products daily.
Do I trust Microsoft? No way!

I would agree that (among my client base) there is a general uneasy feeling building towards Microsoft. So the idea that their ranking is lower does not surprise me at all.

Do I trust Apple? Not anymore than Microsoft.

The conspiracy theorist in me believes the real motive behind their switch to Intel has to do with standardizing DRM.

When all of the hardware is "Trusted" then who will you trust at all?

How do you know?

[SuperKendall]

The people that make up the population in the survey say they distrust MS. Okay, fine. What they distrust is their business practices, not MS's software itself (rightly or wrongly).

What makes you think that? Why would a whole user population constantly under attack from viruses and spyware not fall into a dislike of Windows itself? That's what I have seen with a lot of people.

Re:Enough already!

[99BottlesOfBeerInMyF]

I can't see a gamer spending a crapload of money on a system that they can't slap the latest video card into every 6 months.

First, gamers are a tiny segment of the market. Second, many gamers now use laptops to make LAN parties easier, thus have no upgrade option. Third, why can't you slap a new video card in the Mac tower when it is released?

And I can't see a business spending crap tons of money on a more expensive machine to do all the same tasks they currently do.

While some companies do use Macs for the simplified management and lower security costs, you're right that most won't be switching anytime soon. Rather, expect a slow migration towards Linux in the business space. That trend, I think, may open some doors for Mac purchases, as environments will become more friendly to standards compliant OS's

Maybe they'll sell some upgrades to people who use an older mac and want the ability to dual boot, but beyond that...?

Mostly I see this as a way to sell more Macs to potential "switchers." People might want to use OS X, but be unsure if they will like it in the long term. This gives them the security of being able to "switch back" at a low price point. The real market for new Mac users, in my opinion, are those who would love to ditch Windows, but require some Windows-only software. I foresee a lot more migration in this space as virtualization/emulation/reimplementation takes off. Here at work we get to choose among a few particular models of computers; one of which is a powerbook (used by maybe 55% the company right now). I know when the time comes to pick an upgrade several people in administration, sales, documentation, etc. who are now using a Thinkpad will probably go for a powerbook combined with something to run those Windows applications within OS X.

For some it will be their first experience using a Mac (or first using OS X anyway). They have at this point only looked over the shoulders of others and said, "hey how come you can do that?" and "wow that is really cool!" Another interesting item of note, is I don't know people that switch back. Well, I know one guy who bought a powerbook, used OS X for a while, and then went back to Linux as his main OS. But, by and large, when people buy a Mac, they continue to do so from then on. It is hard to lose all that functionality, once you get used to it. This will probably influence their next home computer purchase as well.

In summary, I don't see that bootcamp will be used much, but I do think it will drive some Mac sales. Further, I think other technologies (enabled by the switch to new Intel processors) that allow Windows software to run will drive even more sales. I think this particular article was empty fluff, but I do foresee increasing market share, especially among power users.

It's the cost of software...

[snStarter]

...that makes the transition difficult. For a long-term Windows user it would mean buying a new software suite unless vendors start giving good cross-grade pricing. There's lots of money tied up in software and shifting it to a new platform may well cost several times the cost of the platform itself. Looking at my quad-G5 I see that I have well over the cost of the machine and its 30" display in software.

The user experience would have to become very bad for me to move.

On the other hand the troubles friends have with the Windows machines seems to suggest that they have passed that line already!