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HD-DVD's Temporary Edge
kukyfrope writes to mention a GameDailyBiz article speculating on the edge HD-DVD will have on Blu-ray in the near future. From the article: "Although Toshiba may take round one, in the long run 'complicating factors may shift the balance.' ABI predicts that by the end of 2006, only about 30 percent of the global hi-def movie player market will be controlled by Blu-ray, but that could quickly change as Sony launches its PlayStation 3 (which has a Blu-ray drive) worldwide this November. '...its large expected sales figures could change the market dominance picture dramatically,' notes ABI."
Face it. The results of this pissing match will be the same as the results of the DVD pissing match. Everyone's player will support everyone's format. It won't matter what format a disc is recorded in because it will play anywhere.
This whole argument about "oh which technology is better and which one should we root for?" is crap and a smokescreen. The real argument is about who is building an easier remote control and more attractive cases. These are the things that matter to consumers. Points like which format is supported are moot because the machines will eventually support all the formats.
I think it would be premature to say that either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD is going to be a major player in the market. When the PS2 was released, DVD technology was readily available, and DVDs were a vast improvement over VHS without an exorbitant price difference in media. Both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD seem to be targeted toward the high-tech high-dollar crowd. Buying a new TV is a likely scenario for anyone trailblazing into this new media, and very few people might be willing to do that when they bought a HDTV set a only few years ago. Also, if the PS2 is any indicator of Sony's attention to media detail, the blu-ray player in the PS3 will be a poor substitute for a real Blu-Ray player. If either of the two technologies are to catch-on to the mainstream, either players and media will have to be competetively priced with current DVD technology, or many people will be buying new television sets. Both of these options seem to coincide with either technology taking many years to become dominant, which is paradodical, considering that you need a large portion of people to adopt a technology before it becomes dominant. Maybe companies such as LG will save us the hastle with the creation of a joint Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player.
"Bad times have a scientific value. These are occasions a good learner would not miss." ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson
As much as folks might be up in arms over the superiority of one format or another, don't forget that there may be a third player in this race: on-line distribution. You can get TV shows off of iTunes now and download them in about 10-20 minutes. How long until movies see a similar distribution that actually works well. Sure they'll have to be higher quality than what iTunes offers for TV but I imagine that a happy medium between size and quality could be met, even for the HD crowd. When there's a decent on-line distribution method, a decent user interface to go with it, and a relatively inexpensive and easy way to get that video onto a TV, then this Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD war will be largely irrelevant.
I agree the whole thing is moot. But mainly because I haven't met *anyone*, even people with 60+ inch home theatres, who gives a shit about either format. Most DVDs look good enough on HDTVs that I think it's going to be an exceptionally slow adoption curve. More like laserdisk than DVD.
Dude, I think I can see my house from here.