HD-DVD's Temporary Edge

kukyfrope writes to mention a GameDailyBiz article speculating on the edge HD-DVD will have on Blu-ray in the near future. From the article: "Although Toshiba may take round one, in the long run 'complicating factors may shift the balance.' ABI predicts that by the end of 2006, only about 30 percent of the global hi-def movie player market will be controlled by Blu-ray, but that could quickly change as Sony launches its PlayStation 3 (which has a Blu-ray drive) worldwide this November. '...its large expected sales figures could change the market dominance picture dramatically,' notes ABI."

Comments

Typo?

[c0l0]

Isn't the competing standard for next-gen optical storage media named "Blu-Ray", and not "Blue-Ray"?

This whole argument is so fucking stupid

[BadAnalogyGuy]

Face it. The results of this pissing match will be the same as the results of the DVD pissing match. Everyone's player will support everyone's format. It won't matter what format a disc is recorded in because it will play anywhere.

This whole argument about "oh which technology is better and which one should we root for?" is crap and a smokescreen. The real argument is about who is building an easier remote control and more attractive cases. These are the things that matter to consumers. Points like which format is supported are moot because the machines will eventually support all the formats.

Please enlighten me

[Anonymous Coward]

Aren't all these crippled by DRM so we should just dismiss them anyway?

yours is an appropriate nick

[muyuubyou]

This time around one of them is not backwards compatible (requiring an extra lens that would make players a lot more expensive).

On the other hand, that same one offers a more advanced technology... although probably too soon and too expensive.

We have quite an unpredictable match in front of us, with many variables... provider partnership, manufacturer partnership, success/failure of the PS3, user need for HD, HD-TV penetration...

It's not farfetched to think HD-DVD could be dominant for some time, then Blu-Ray later... or not, if it was perceived as a loser and went belly up.

Re:yours is an appropriate nick

[BigMattyC]

I also think the whole thing is moot. By the time any of the big manufacturers come out with their players, Broadcom's single chip solution to HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will have been implemented in decks by any electronics shop not directly involved with a standard. As a recent employee in the digital TV space, I can say unequivocally that dual-standard decks are so far along that there will hardly be a time that you can buy either format as a single-solution deck and not buy a combined-format deck. Not to mention the fact that these types of things typically go to the low-end Chinese ODMs first, so they'll likely be cheap, too. Matt

Re:yours is an appropriate nick

[Pieroxy]

I thought current DVD players already have several lasers... because there is no common wavelength to be able to read : CD, CD-R(W), DVD, DVD-/+R(W)

I may be wrong though. But for sure, the expensive part in a DVD player is certainly not the laser.

Re:yours is an appropriate nick

[iocat]

I agree the whole thing is moot. But mainly because I haven't met *anyone*, even people with 60+ inch home theatres, who gives a shit about either format. Most DVDs look good enough on HDTVs that I think it's going to be an exceptionally slow adoption curve. More like laserdisk than DVD.

Re:PS3 is irrelevent

[Rik Sweeney]

How many people seriously watched DVDs on a PS2 instead of a real standalone player?

I did and still do. When I left my parents, I took my PS2 along with the rest of my stuff. Living in rented accomodation with no living room meant I had to watch TV on my 15in portable. I had a games console which conveniently doubled up as a DVD player. 4 years later I still see no reason to get a stand alone player while I still have my PS2 and eventually a PS3.

The Sony effect...

[Ritz_Just_Ritz]

Well, we've seen how the adoption of UMD on the Sony PSP console did wonders for that media format. 8-)

Enough speculation already!

[Anonymous Coward]

Geez, yet another "hd-dvd has the lead now, but who knows what will happen in the future, here are my guesses pulled out of my butt" article. Enough, all these stupid articles have absolutely nothing new to add. It's stop for the speculation to stop and time for the players and the consumers to start deciding. It's a waiting game now. Unless anyone actually chimes in with some interesting information (I'll repeat that, INFORMATION), not speculation, not wild-a** guesses, not yet another link to my blog to rack up adsense $$, I think that /. should declare a moritorium on these idiotic articles (not that I expect this to actually occur :( )

Beta all over again

[argStyopa]

I'm a definite target-demographic for HD DVD.
I don't watch TV, I watch DVDs instead - probably 20+ movies per month via Netflix. I don't have cable/satellite.

I have a HD tv that I've been dying to see HD output on, and have an income level such that I could buy an HD DVD player without really batting an eye financially.

But you know what? Until it seems to be resolved which HD format is going to finally be THE ONE that the market settles on, I'm not buying any hardware. Furthermore, since I'm not buying hardware, I'm not signing up for the Netflix HD-DVD service so I'm (microscopically) reducing immediate demand for HD DVD.

Congratulations you bunch of selfish, greedy, dumbasses. Your pissing match over 'whose format is better' is no doubt causing hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of otherwise early-adopters like myself to wait to spend our cash on your equipment.

BRILLIANT.

Blu-Ray Will Win

[Glock27]

Blu-Ray has two big advantages.

First, the PS3 absolutely will drive adoption. PS3 will probably sell 10 million units within two years.

Second, Blu-Ray has already had every major studio but one (Universal I think) commit to releasing content on Blu-Ray. HD-DVD still has three or four studios to convince to support its format.

Besides, Microsoft really likes HD-DVD...what more reason do you need to root for Blu-Ray? ;-)

(As an aside, I thought the fit Microsoft threw when it found out Blu-Ray software was going to be Java was pretty funny...)

Completely Different Scenario

[BoredWolf]

I think it would be premature to say that either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD is going to be a major player in the market. When the PS2 was released, DVD technology was readily available, and DVDs were a vast improvement over VHS without an exorbitant price difference in media. Both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD seem to be targeted toward the high-tech high-dollar crowd. Buying a new TV is a likely scenario for anyone trailblazing into this new media, and very few people might be willing to do that when they bought a HDTV set a only few years ago. Also, if the PS2 is any indicator of Sony's attention to media detail, the blu-ray player in the PS3 will be a poor substitute for a real Blu-Ray player. If either of the two technologies are to catch-on to the mainstream, either players and media will have to be competetively priced with current DVD technology, or many people will be buying new television sets. Both of these options seem to coincide with either technology taking many years to become dominant, which is paradodical, considering that you need a large portion of people to adopt a technology before it becomes dominant. Maybe companies such as LG will save us the hastle with the creation of a joint Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player.

Don't underestimate the dark horse.

[hal2814]

As much as folks might be up in arms over the superiority of one format or another, don't forget that there may be a third player in this race: on-line distribution. You can get TV shows off of iTunes now and download them in about 10-20 minutes. How long until movies see a similar distribution that actually works well. Sure they'll have to be higher quality than what iTunes offers for TV but I imagine that a happy medium between size and quality could be met, even for the HD crowd. When there's a decent on-line distribution method, a decent user interface to go with it, and a relatively inexpensive and easy way to get that video onto a TV, then this Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD war will be largely irrelevant.

Re:PS3 is irrelevent

[cthellis]

How many people seriously watched DVDs on a PS2 instead of a real standalone player?

Plenty. Besides, how many people had a DVD player before the PS2 launched? (1997 vs 2000) Now how many will have an HD DVD player before the PS3 launches...?

or will they both lose to plain old DVD?

[bzipitidoo]

Does anyone use Super Audio CD? Or DVD-audio, Video CD, or Super Video CD? Video CD was kind of cool for a while when blank DVD-Rs were much more expensive than CD-Rs but now who needs it?

HDTV quality would be great, but not if we have to pay $1000s for an HDTV that might not be "compatible" (read, DRM capable), and another premium for a special player. Especially annoying when a $100 computer monitor is more than capable of displaying content at HDTV resolution. Then we get to pay lots more money to "upgrade" our libraries from DVD to a format we may not be able to back up or play at full resolution thanks to all the DRM crap. And we won't be able to skip the commercials. Is any ordinary Joe not going to see these problems? Not after the first ones to try it get burned and word spreads. The studios think we're all that stupid? DVD is good enough. I bet the negatives of DRM and price will more than offset the positives of higher quality video, and this will lose out the way Laserdisc did to VHS.