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HD-DVD's Temporary Edge
kukyfrope writes to mention a GameDailyBiz article speculating on the edge HD-DVD will have on Blu-ray in the near future. From the article: "Although Toshiba may take round one, in the long run 'complicating factors may shift the balance.' ABI predicts that by the end of 2006, only about 30 percent of the global hi-def movie player market will be controlled by Blu-ray, but that could quickly change as Sony launches its PlayStation 3 (which has a Blu-ray drive) worldwide this November. '...its large expected sales figures could change the market dominance picture dramatically,' notes ABI."
Isn't the competing standard for next-gen optical storage media named "Blu-Ray", and not "Blue-Ray"?
:%s/Open Source/Free Software/g
YTARY!
Face it. The results of this pissing match will be the same as the results of the DVD pissing match. Everyone's player will support everyone's format. It won't matter what format a disc is recorded in because it will play anywhere.
This whole argument about "oh which technology is better and which one should we root for?" is crap and a smokescreen. The real argument is about who is building an easier remote control and more attractive cases. These are the things that matter to consumers. Points like which format is supported are moot because the machines will eventually support all the formats.
Aren't all these crippled by DRM so we should just dismiss them anyway?
This time around one of them is not backwards compatible (requiring an extra lens that would make players a lot more expensive).
On the other hand, that same one offers a more advanced technology... although probably too soon and too expensive.
We have quite an unpredictable match in front of us, with many variables... provider partnership, manufacturer partnership, success/failure of the PS3, user need for HD, HD-TV penetration...
It's not farfetched to think HD-DVD could be dominant for some time, then Blu-Ray later... or not, if it was perceived as a loser and went belly up.
How many people seriously watched DVDs on a PS2 instead of a real standalone player?
I did and still do. When I left my parents, I took my PS2 along with the rest of my stuff. Living in rented accomodation with no living room meant I had to watch TV on my 15in portable. I had a games console which conveniently doubled up as a DVD player. 4 years later I still see no reason to get a stand alone player while I still have my PS2 and eventually a PS3.
Summation 2
Well, we've seen how the adoption of UMD on the Sony PSP console did wonders for that media format. 8-)
Geez, yet another "hd-dvd has the lead now, but who knows what will happen in the future, here are my guesses pulled out of my butt" article. Enough, all these stupid articles have absolutely nothing new to add. It's stop for the speculation to stop and time for the players and the consumers to start deciding. It's a waiting game now. Unless anyone actually chimes in with some interesting information (I'll repeat that, INFORMATION), not speculation, not wild-a** guesses, not yet another link to my blog to rack up adsense $$, I think that /. should declare a moritorium on these idiotic articles (not that I expect this to actually occur :( )
I'm a definite target-demographic for HD DVD.
I don't watch TV, I watch DVDs instead - probably 20+ movies per month via Netflix. I don't have cable/satellite.
I have a HD tv that I've been dying to see HD output on, and have an income level such that I could buy an HD DVD player without really batting an eye financially.
But you know what? Until it seems to be resolved which HD format is going to finally be THE ONE that the market settles on, I'm not buying any hardware. Furthermore, since I'm not buying hardware, I'm not signing up for the Netflix HD-DVD service so I'm (microscopically) reducing immediate demand for HD DVD.
Congratulations you bunch of selfish, greedy, dumbasses. Your pissing match over 'whose format is better' is no doubt causing hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of otherwise early-adopters like myself to wait to spend our cash on your equipment.
BRILLIANT.
-Styopa
My (and many people's) first DVD player was a PS2. My first HD VD player will probably be a PS3.
The mark of a mature person is not creating arbitrary criteria for considering others mature.
This article has too many "could"s and nothing solid to convince me that either outcome is possible. It's sort of like the early days of beta/vhs. What I'd like to see is an objective study comparing the different formats.
Nobody cares.
"I reject your reality, and substitute my own!"
I dont think it is going to matter at all who controls the market because in the next 4 years someone is likely to come out with a dual drive that reads both blu ray and HD-DVD. Id have to say though sony cant be feeling to good if the predictions for there drive's popularity is only 30% of the market. they dont want this to be another betamax and lose another format war that they spent millions on.
First, the PS3 absolutely will drive adoption. PS3 will probably sell 10 million units within two years.
Second, Blu-Ray has already had every major studio but one (Universal I think) commit to releasing content on Blu-Ray. HD-DVD still has three or four studios to convince to support its format.
Besides, Microsoft really likes HD-DVD...what more reason do you need to root for Blu-Ray? ;-)
(As an aside, I thought the fit Microsoft threw when it found out Blu-Ray software was going to be Java was pretty funny...)
Galileo: "The Earth revolves around the Sun!"
Score: -1 100% Flamebait
UMDs for the PSP did good, but the problem was that the movie companies were putting out old movies that weren't worth paying $20-30 for. Most people would pay that much for a new movie, but the majority of movies that came out were old ones that you could get on DVD for $6-10 on the sales racks. The Blu-Ray feature is just icing on the cake.
Can I bum a sig?
I think it would be premature to say that either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD is going to be a major player in the market. When the PS2 was released, DVD technology was readily available, and DVDs were a vast improvement over VHS without an exorbitant price difference in media. Both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD seem to be targeted toward the high-tech high-dollar crowd. Buying a new TV is a likely scenario for anyone trailblazing into this new media, and very few people might be willing to do that when they bought a HDTV set a only few years ago. Also, if the PS2 is any indicator of Sony's attention to media detail, the blu-ray player in the PS3 will be a poor substitute for a real Blu-Ray player. If either of the two technologies are to catch-on to the mainstream, either players and media will have to be competetively priced with current DVD technology, or many people will be buying new television sets. Both of these options seem to coincide with either technology taking many years to become dominant, which is paradodical, considering that you need a large portion of people to adopt a technology before it becomes dominant. Maybe companies such as LG will save us the hastle with the creation of a joint Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player.
"Bad times have a scientific value. These are occasions a good learner would not miss." ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson
How many extra pixels will you be able to put on the 15" with the High Defination now?
--
Seriously though, I see the market for the High Defination DVDs as something which is better than normal DVD. The makers are going to be charging premium prices for a while. Not having seen either of these two formats I venture a guess and say in order to see a substantial benefit in quality you are also going to have the other componenant which is a very good television. The people who have these don't mind spending the cash for the stand alones and will do so. Whether the PS3 has the player or not won't increase sales for them.
Now, for the rest of the market--if you are saying that they will buy the PS3 and not the stand alone and reasonably save money, you are correct. However, the person saving money this way, on average, will not have the money for the other expensive toy: the television to view the better effects. My take is that people will buy a BR DVD for a premium price and play it in the PS3 on a regular television and not see much of a difference. When that happens they will ask why am I spending a premium on a BR DVD when I can buy the same for less. And from that PS3 might cause a spike in sales but then it will drop.
Quality Hosting e3 Servers
I'd say the PS2 was the first DVD player for most of my friends. I know its anecdotal, but we were fresh out of college when the PS2 was released, so money was tight, but everyone picked up a PS2. It wasn't till a few years later that people started picking up standalone DVD players.
As much as folks might be up in arms over the superiority of one format or another, don't forget that there may be a third player in this race: on-line distribution. You can get TV shows off of iTunes now and download them in about 10-20 minutes. How long until movies see a similar distribution that actually works well. Sure they'll have to be higher quality than what iTunes offers for TV but I imagine that a happy medium between size and quality could be met, even for the HD crowd. When there's a decent on-line distribution method, a decent user interface to go with it, and a relatively inexpensive and easy way to get that video onto a TV, then this Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD war will be largely irrelevant.
Look, HD-DVD is available now, while Blu-ray is still struggling. The Fact that Sony couldn't get the PS3 released with Blu-ray technology now sealed its fate.
Plus, the simple fact is, Sony has never successfully launched a media format. BetaMax, MiniDisc, SuperAudio, UMD, MediaStick, and now BR-DVD you name it, if Sony had a hand it its development, it failed, most of the times miserably.
I think that both next generation DVD's will face serious lack of adoption as there just isn't any pressing need for consumers to upgrade their systems. But of the two formats, Sony doesn't have the reputation for making it work, and HD-DVD will become the next generation standard.
What will mark the success of this format is the first camp to offer a recordable PC drive. If Sony gets a Blu-Ray rewritable DVD drive before an HD-DVD, then I might change my story. But I doubt that will happen considering Sony is still struggling to define the format for read only drives.
I think Sony truthfully delayed the PS3 because they are uncertain if Blu-Ray will succeed. If they can't sell BR-DVD players and BR-DVD movies in the next 6 months, why release the PS3 with the failed Blu-Ray technology.
I have nothing against Sony, and look forward to the PS3, but I think in the long run I would put my money on ANY non-Sony inspired digital media. It just makes common sense.
I haven't thought of anything clever to put here, but then again most of you haven't either.
How many people seriously watched DVDs on a PS2 instead of a real standalone player?
Plenty. Besides, how many people had a DVD player before the PS2 launched? (1997 vs 2000) Now how many will have an HD DVD player before the PS3 launches...?
HDTV quality would be great, but not if we have to pay $1000s for an HDTV that might not be "compatible" (read, DRM capable), and another premium for a special player. Especially annoying when a $100 computer monitor is more than capable of displaying content at HDTV resolution. Then we get to pay lots more money to "upgrade" our libraries from DVD to a format we may not be able to back up or play at full resolution thanks to all the DRM crap. And we won't be able to skip the commercials. Is any ordinary Joe not going to see these problems? Not after the first ones to try it get burned and word spreads. The studios think we're all that stupid? DVD is good enough. I bet the negatives of DRM and price will more than offset the positives of higher quality video, and this will lose out the way Laserdisc did to VHS.
Intellectual Property is a monopolistic, selfish, and defective concept. It is "tyranny over the mind of man"
If the outlook is dim, why is my Sony stock going up like mad? They have other businesses to be sure, but a loss in this arena would sting.
- has burner available for my PC $100 & - [HD||BluRay]shrink/decrypter/fab is available for & - [insert chinese company] makes a player for
HD DVD is already selling players (I have already bought one!) and movies are starting to be available.
HD DVD does have good studio support. Read into it, you'll see that most will release to it (except perhaps Sony). There will be tons of great titles to watch regardless.
Blu-Ray's only real advantage was bigger discs - yet they can't manufacture 2 layer discs yet! Now add a "DVD compatibility layer" and you'd need 3 layers to really have 2 for high def, adn I can't manage to do that anytime soon seeing how much trouble they have already. (Not to mention that using recent codecs like H.264 defeated the whole point of Blu-Ray as the movie would fit on a plain old, regular DVD media)
Blu-Ray uses Java. HD DVD will use iHD. That's a huge difference! Blu-Ray will need some hihgly paid expert programmers, will need to license JVMs - which will most likely end up differering and having compatibility problems and what not [mobile phones anyone?] Creating even trivial stuff becomes a complex endeavour. On the other hand, iHD is simple XML based markup (somewhat like HTML), which is something most people know nowadays. It's simple, and will be standard. There's even some simpleexamples already available for you to see. So simple and elegant.
Blu-Ray is way overpriced. HD DVD players are already expensive at 500$ (might be even cheaper by xmas time), but Blu-Ray is twice that, putting it out of reach for most people (too much money for a player). Not to mention that the burnable media pricing is even worse - 60$USD for a blank Blu-Ray disc! That's enough to buy 400 blank generic DVDs at BestBuy on special (over 1.5TB worth), or a fair sized HD. And if anything will help one format willing, it'll be sales. And everybody knows sales are directly related to prices (just look how much 20$ Apex DVD players they're selling!)
Blu-Ray is sony. DRM and Rootkits. Failed proprietary formats. overpriced junk electronics (you just pay for the brand name). No thanks! I'll take M$-based stuff over it as the lesser evil(!)
I can't see the heavily delayed PS3 change the situation that much. The people who usually buy those consoles are gamers (that often don't spend too much time watching movies and rather spend their hard earned money on games instead of movie DVDs). And the PS3 will cost at least as much as a HD DVD player (recently announced at 600 euro in EU). And likely a HUGE portion of PS3 buyers don't even have a HDTV in the first place. The real High Def enthusiasts - those who DO have a HDTV and will buy movies - won't wait for that to get a player (especially seeing how Blu-Ray sucks all around). And if you want to include gaming consoles, there will be a HD DVD drive for the Xbox360 (wait for E3), and there's already like 4.5 millions of those sold.
And HD DVD has managed copy too (movies on my video server, using the touchscreen yay!).
I used to really like Blu-Ray, but it's already lost the battle. They don't have a single advantage anymore - much the inverse. Likely more PCs will ship with HD DVD drives too (except perhaps a handful of Sony VAIOs), especially seeing how MS & Intel are pushing for it.
Blu-Ray will go the way of all the Sony junk: BetaMax, MiniDisc, ATRAC, MemoryStick, UMD, etc.
The UMD would be a valid comparison if the ONLY way to view blu-ray's would have been through ps3's and nothing else.
Sony is aiming for the blu-ray being much more universal and maintream. Not only will blu-ray run on the ps3 but it will also run on standard setup blu-ray machines made by sony and other companies.
The UMD's weren't supported by other portable viewing machines by Sony or any other companies.
Hmmm... Pie...