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New Piracy Loss Estimate

An anonymous reader writes "WSJ reports on a new MPAA estimate losses due to piracy. "The study, by LEK Consulting LLC, was completed last year, and people familiar with it say it reached a startling conclusion: U.S. movie studios are losing about $6.1 billion annually in global wholesale revenue to piracy, about 75% more than previous estimated losses of $3.5 billion in hard goods. On top of that, losses are coming not only from lost ticket sales, but from DVD sales that have been Hollywood's cash cow in recent years."

22 of 480 comments (clear)

  1. Gee, They put the lotto on TV... by ackthpt · · Score: 5, Funny

    Why don't they show the RIAA and MPAA giving the Big Spin, themselves?

    bzzzzzzzzz-tik-tik-tik-tik-tik-tik
    "Come on 6.1 billion! Come on 6.1 billion!"
    tikka-tikka-tikka-tik-tok-tok "Come on 6.1 billion! YAAAAAYYYYYYY!!!! We lost 6.1 billion!!! Wheeee!!! Huzzah!!"

    "Now we cut to live footage of those most responsible for the losses incurred by the RIAA and MPAA conducting a clandestine summit in a treehouse on the outskirts of Wooster, Massachusetts!"

    "Ahoy, ye bloomin' yeller scoundrel!"
    "Avast, ye bloomin' scupper-faced seadog!"
    "Arr, ye great yeller galoot!"
    "Avast, ye scurvy bilge-spewin' lubber!"
    "Ahoy, ye poxy waterlogged galoot!"
    "Avast, ye great bilge-spewin' picaroon!"
    "Arr, ye bloomin' brine-swiggin' lubber!"
    ...
    It sure beats the boring truth, doesn't it?
    --

    A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    1. Re:Gee, They put the lotto on TV... by ackthpt · · Score: 5, Funny
      What if DVDs aren't worth owning and theaters are inconvenient? How are we supposed to support the movie industry then?

      Donations through PayPal?

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    2. Re:Gee, They put the lotto on TV... by Reverend528 · · Score: 5, Funny
      The internet is everywhere. Changing physical locations won't stop internet piracy.

      Yes, but if they refuse to sell movies in the US, then any movies downloaded in that region can't possibly be considered a lost sale, thus they won't be losing a billion dollars are year to the pirates. It makes perfect sense if you think about it.

    3. Re:Gee, They put the lotto on TV... by Reverend528 · · Score: 5, Informative
      Good, maybe they'll spend 1.3 billion less on crappy movies using 'big name stars' to try and sell whatever script they had monkies write....

      With 1.3 billion dollars, the MPAA could afford...

      • 6.2 King Kongs!
      • 7.6 Waterworlds!
      • 14.9 Seabiscuits!
      • over 24 Giglis!
  2. This, from the organization by QuietLagoon · · Score: 5, Insightful

    that said VCRs would kill the movie industry.

    1. Re:This, from the organization by QuietLagoon · · Score: 5, Interesting
      Jack Valenti, head of the MPAA, testifying before the Committee on the Judiciary, United States House of Representatives, April 12, 1982

      I say to you that the VCR is to the American film producer and the American public as the Boston strangler is to the woman home alone.

  3. Lies, damn lies, and (corprate) statistics by 9mm+Censor · · Score: 5, Funny

    In other news I had a friend do a study for me (I paid him a pizza, a bag of dorritos and a case of coke) and he conculded, that I paid too much for Internet, my Internet was not fast enough, I was overcharged for movies and music, and I paid too much taxes.

  4. Duh *bangs head against wall* by Epistax · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Pay $20+ for an ad infused FBI warning with regioning, or virtually nothing for no ads or FBI warnings or regioning.

    Remove the warning, remove the ads, charge $10 max. I can live without movies if you force me to.

    1. Re:Duh *bangs head against wall* by ackthpt · · Score: 5, Informative
      Pay $20+ for an ad infused FBI warning with regioning, or virtually nothing for no ads or FBI warnings or regioning.

      Remove the warning, remove the ads, charge $10 max. I can live without movies if you force me to.

      Yeah, tell me about it. I popped in a DVD a couple months back and it was crammed with plugs for upcoming movies, which came out some time back when the DVD was issued, and I couldn't fast-forward, skip to menu or anything. What a bunch of low-life ****ers.

      I did eventually figure out I could hold down the menu button and start the DVD and it would actually skip to the menu, but some disks don't allow that.

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
  5. Imagine the losses... by vex24 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ...if they were actually making movies worth watching!

    --

    People shape laws. Not the other way around.

  6. I thought they might be legitimate... by fireboy1919 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ...until I read this:
    An additional $529 million in losses came from consumers making copies of legitimate films they bought on DVD or VHS.

    Losses? You have to buy another one when you want to make a copy? Pay-per-disc?

    They're counting every time any kind of copy is made as a loss of sale. They're not even trying to be realistic here.

    --
    Mod me down and I will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine!
    1. Re:I thought they might be legitimate... by MightyMartian · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Let's try to remember here that the movie industry's definition of a loss bears little or no resemblance to the commonly accepted accounting definition. The creative accounting involved can turn blockbusters into net loss situations, particularly when some guy due royalties starts asking "hey, this movie made 100 million bucks, so why didn't I get a check?"

      This is the pathetic thing about the MPAA (and RIAA as well). These guys represent some of the worst financial pirates out there. They rip off artists, investors and, most importantly, consumers, and then run around crying when some amoral sonofabitch does in miniature what they've been doing in large for decades.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    2. Re:I thought they might be legitimate... by Sark666 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      To expand on this, a famous example of this is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forrest_gump/

      They promised the writer, Winston Groom, a percentage of the profits, but a little cooking of the books and the top grossing film of that year becomes a commerical failure a la hollywood accounting http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_accounting

      Another example is eddie murphy's 'coming to america'. It grossed 350 mil worldwide but yet failed to produce a profit.

      Art Buchwald received a settlement after his lawsuit Buchwald v. Paramount over Paramount's use of Hollywood accounting. The court found Paramount's actions "unconscionable," noting that it was impossible to believe that a movie (1988's Eddie Murphy comedy Coming to America) which grossed US$350 million failed to make a profit, especially since the actual production costs were less than a tenth of that. Paramount settled for an undisclosed sum, rather than have its accounting methods closely scrutinized.

      Even Stan Lee had to sue marvel over spiderman profits.

      What I'm curious about is if Art Buchwald didn't settle with Paramount, and these practices were exposed in court, would the studio not be guilty of tax evasion if the movie made way more than reported?

  7. Re:Excellent! by MightyMartian · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Without an independent audit of their claims, is there any reason at all that anybody should be taking these numbers seriously?

    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
  8. Re:Brilliant assumptions by daknapp · · Score: 5, Informative

    Actually, no it doesn't make the assumption that every pirated copy of a movie would be a sale. If you RTFA, you would see:

    Critics have faulted some piracy estimates for equating each pirated DVD with a lost sale, when many consumers would have skipped the movie altogether if they hadn't gotten a cheap or free unauthorized version. This time, the survey specifically asked consumers how many of their pirated movies they would have purchased in stores or seen in theaters if they didn't have an unauthorized copy, giving studios a different picture of their true losses.

    The results are likely still completely bogus, but at least they pretended to be correcting for that factor.

  9. Oh, irony! by porneL · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I don't like being forced to watch copyright warnings, stupid "don't steal" commercials and having trouble with archiving movies, so I prefer watching 'stolen' copies, which don't have any added crap.

  10. I can see it now... by brian0918 · · Score: 5, Funny

    "I don't even understand why they bother using real numbers in these studies."

    I can see it now...

    The MPAA reports on a startling new study indicating that over 63 trillion gigawatts of elephants are being harvested anually as a result of DVD piracy. The study corrected for factors such as yellow, and the tootsie roll center of a Tootsie Pop, providing the first clear evidence of a connection between movie downlaods and the number 7.

  11. Re:No surprise but the MPAA is lying by Afecks · · Score: 5, Funny

    That reminds me of when I had a meeting with Santa Claus and his head elf. He full blank told me that you are full of shit. However, I wasn't really shocked by that statement. He said that you will be getting coal next year.

  12. They are way off! by Un+pobre+guey · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Let's assume every man, woman, and child on earth consumes the equivalent of 10 pirated DVDs per year. Let's further assume that there are currently about 10 billion people on earth, and that each DVD's list price is US$20. Then, the lost sales are really:

    10 x 10,000,000,000 x US$20 = US$2,000,000,000,000 = 2 Trillion US Dollars

    This clearly dwarfs the cost of invading Iraq and giving Baby Boomers their Social Security benefits put together, therefore it is much more important. It is in fact, as shown by the objective calculations above, by far the most important issue on earth today. More than global warming, AIDS, tuberculosis, environmental pollution, shortages of potable water, collapse of fisheries, ozone layer depletion, overpopulation, lack of medical care, famine, poverty, slavery, wars in the Third World, tyrannical dictatorships, nuclear weapons proliferation, exploitation of the many by the few, rampant governmental corruption, compromised information and news media, organized crime, in short more important than anything.

    Someone should tell the RIAA.

  13. Re:Excellent! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    short answer: no

    long answer: nope

  14. Re:Brilliant assumptions by Kingrames · · Score: 5, Insightful

    More like Pirates are waking those geese up to the fact that they can't sell $100 worth of gold in the form of an egg for ten times what people are willing to pay.

    Piracy is not an indicator that suddenly 50% of the country is willing to break the law.

    It's a very strong indicator that prices are WAY too high.
    There is no other explanation for it. People simply aren't willing to pay what the industry is charging, and the representatives of the industry are trying to preserve what little bit of a monopoly they have left.

    The ONLY WAY that these idiots can save their money and their shareholders' money is to drastically slash prices to the point where people stop downloading videos through torrents.

    Remember that even the person doing the downloading has to make an opportunity cost comparison.
    "is this video worth the Gigabyte of storage it'll take up?"

    At some point, when the prices go down, sales will go up, and people will slow down and stop their piracy simply because it isn't convenient.

    Any effort to preserve the high prices may result in recovering your losses in out-of-court settlements, if that, but even then, you're losing millions, if not billions, in the long term.

    --
    If you can read this, I forgot to post anonymously.
  15. This P2P thing is starting to surprise me by OpenSourced · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I live in a world of people with fast internet connections and software skills, and where copying interesting data is in the blood, be it software, music, films. But just a week ago I realized how deep this P2P thing is getting into the "real world". I was doing some install in a manufacturing plant, in the production back office. It was a small office with about ten people working. Then the secretary raised the topic of a new CD of a popular band that was to be released that day. Se asked about how long she had to wait till the CD was shared. Somebody answers that he had downloaded already. The conversation involves more people. The talked about the band, asked if the new CD was any good. All was very natural, no hushing, no self-conciousness. NOBODY even thought about buying the CD. The one that had downloaded it offered for copy, the local net of the company was used to make copies of the thing, while mixing talk of music with production problems. It was all very natural, very cool, like sending copies of a joke e-mail or something like that.

    Those where lower-income-bracket people, lower-computer-literacy people, that is, the backbone of the country. And they see nothing even remotely wrong in copying music. I fear the content producers are against too much of a slope now.

    --
    Rome taught me patience and assiduous application to detail. Virtues which temper the boldness of great, general views.