Slashdot Mirror
Bird Flu Drug Mass Production Technique Discovered
creepygeek writes to mention a New Scientist article detailing a new process for creating Tamiflu, an antiviral drug currently thought to be our best defense against the bird flu. From the article: "Making Tamiflu is slow, partly because shikimic is hard to get, but also because one step in the process involves a highly explosive chemical called an azide. As a result, Tamiflu can be made only in small batches of a few tens of litres at a time. But Elias Corey of Harvard University - who won a Nobel prize in 1990 for chemical synthesis - and colleagues have devised a new way to make the drug from two cheap, plentiful petrochemicals, acrylate and butadiene."
I think the most notable thing about this paper is that the last sentances read "It is our hope that the process described herein will be of value in improving the opply of oseltamivir and in reducing the cost. With regard to the latter, the process described herein in in the (unpatented) public domain."
For anyone who believes that it is all hype, or knows little about bird flu, I highly recommend this extremely informative discussion Charlie Rose had with 3 experts on the subject. It is by no means overly technical.
8 689203314
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=234341498
The truth is that it is not hype; just because we know about it well ahead of the time when it will actually affect us doesn't mean that it will not be a threat. The most interesting part of that discussion is the possibility that people with AIDS will be the least likely to be harmed by bird flu, since it is the overactive immune system--in response to the foreign disease--that ultimately kills you.
Every so often, a mutant flu strain arises that kills millions of people. Most famously in 1919, when more people died from flu than were killed in the entire four years of unprecedentedly bloody warfare just past. IIRC there were two more major flu pandemics in the twentieth century, although neither were as devastating.
Sooner or later there WILL be another flu with the ability to kill millions. The only way we have of preventing another 1919 is to spot the threat before it gets going and prepare a vaccine. Hence the worry over H5N1. It's entirely possible that it will all blow over. It's also possible that it will mutate to a form that can spread from one human to another, and become pandemic. If it doesn't, well, great. If it does, we'll be glad we prepared.
For myself, I'm far more afraid of a mutant strain of bird flu killing me than I am of terrorists killing me. That said, I'm more afraid of being hit by a car than I am of either of them, but that doesn't stop me crossing the road...
Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
What we really need to do is beef up our local emergency response system across the entire country. Unfortunately, this costs real money. We seem tempted to think the right pill will fix all other aspects of our lives, and another flu pandemic is no different.
The problem with your argument is that chickens do not transmit lightning strikes to each other, nor has it ever been documented that one organizm can transmit a lightning strike to another. (Though there is a Sci-ops contingent known as E.E.L.S. that has moderate success.)
If you don't know what AltaVista is (was), get off my lawn.
Tamiflu won't work. The H5N1 virus can mutate into a form unaffected by Tamiflu. In Vietnam four out of eight avian flu patients who were given the medication died despite the treatment.
w s/20051221/tamiflu_drug_051221/20051221
(CTV NEWS) http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNe
Many top experts are advising to prepare for the worst. The US gov. is urging people to store food that could last for three months. In the UK mass graves are being planed openly. Forget Tamiflu:
(BBC) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4869224.stm
Roche have dragged their heels with licenses for over a year, they finally issued a few licenses after several governments threatened to force a license agreement on them. Regardless of the eventual merits of the drug, Roche's lengthy "license negotiations" are an exercise in pure greed.
And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
Experts like Robert G. Webster are worried about H5N1, so it makes sense to take some precautions.
The Great Influenza by John Barry will scare your socks off, and it is all historical fact.
A good source of information about a possible pandemic is fluwikie.com
1) There probably is no statisically significant data available to determine if tamuflu can stop an epidemic.
2) To rely on only one method is insane. This is just common sense.
3) The assumption is that over time the disease may be come resistant to tamuflu and so other measures are needed (see pt. #2).
4) Tamuflu failed when improper dosages were given.
So to throw out tamuflu would be silly. It would be a good thing to have around, thought the only way to really find out is to have a major outbreak. Only then will we *really* know if it would work.
No time for FUD, I must get on with life.
putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
I hear that the British government are setting up contingency plans to dispose of around 300,000 bodies, as a worst-case scenario: that's about one twentieth of the population. Doesn't seem so much on the face of it, does it? Surely we can cope without 5%.
But for everyone killed, how many spend weeks off work on a sickbed? How many do not fall ill, but stay off work to minimise their potential exposure, at the office and on buses or the Tube? And what if the one killed happens to be the boss? Or the only guy who knows the root password? And remember also that with these diseases, the young and healthy - and hence economically active - are worst hit, because death is often caused by an over-reaction of the immune system.
I can quite imagine that a flu killing one in twenty in this way could completely paralyse the national economy for the duration.
Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
Yeah, but Tamiflu is a great scam for Rumsfeld, who made millions as a former Executive with Gilead - the developer of this nonsense.
Take two Vioxx, and call me from Iraq in the morning.
"Speaking the Truth in times of universal deceit is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
If I try on my tinfoil hat for a moment, it seems that the only winner in a Tamiflu stockpiling situation will be the manufacturer. We can be almost certain that the "next big pandemic" will blind side us. That is, after all, the nature of pandemics. It'll be a mutated form of *something*, probably something quite benign.
In my college years as a Microbiologist, my teachers always ranted and raved about how bad pandemics were.
t m
I didnt fear anything until I saw the statistics of one of the pandemics..
Here is a link from the cdc - about the 1918 Avian Flu Pandemic
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.h
"The "Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, which caused 50 million deaths worldwide.."
Hundreds of millions were infected and millions died... Bird Flu is a real threat.