Bird Flu Drug Mass Production Technique Discovered

creepygeek writes to mention a New Scientist article detailing a new process for creating Tamiflu, an antiviral drug currently thought to be our best defense against the bird flu. From the article: "Making Tamiflu is slow, partly because shikimic is hard to get, but also because one step in the process involves a highly explosive chemical called an azide. As a result, Tamiflu can be made only in small batches of a few tens of litres at a time. But Elias Corey of Harvard University - who won a Nobel prize in 1990 for chemical synthesis - and colleagues have devised a new way to make the drug from two cheap, plentiful petrochemicals, acrylate and butadiene."

Comments

Good News....right?

[TripMaster Monkey]

From TFA:

The biggest hope for saving people at the start of a bird flu pandemic, before a vaccine is available, is the antiviral drug Tamiflu

It's too bad that our 'biggest hope' is not up to the task, as the following articles assert:

• Flu drugs 'will not work' if pandemic strikes
  
• Tamiflu May Not Be So Effective Against Bird Flu
  
• Bird flu proving resistant to Tamiflu treatment
  

It might be better to just stock up on old-fashioned Jewish penicillin.

Re:Good News....right?

[Anonymous Coward]

It might be better to just stock up on old-fashioned Jewish penicillin.

Not a good plan. If Bird Flu strikes, chicken will be rarer than shikimic acid.

Re:Good News....right?

[thebdj]

Two of the three articles reference to the same write-up from the NEMJ. It is also possible, though I cannot be sure, that the third article's journal reference could be a submission from the same individual. Now, I do not know how much to trust what they say about Tamiflu still being the best option, because saying otherwise would just lead people to freak out when the pandemic comes, but I believe it would probably still be one of the better options.

Drug resistances happen because virii and bacteria mutate over time. This is a big reason why many traditional antibiotics are becoming less useful against certain bacteria, and a possible cause for some of the "super bugs." And if your idea for fighting bird flu is with chicken soup, we truly are screwed.

Re:Good News....right?

[Pedrito]

It's impossible at this point to determine how resistant the bird flu will be to Tamiflu if it becomes an easily contagious pandemic form. The reason? Because to become easily contagious, it has to mutate. When it mutates, it becomes a different virus which may be more resistant than the current strain, less resistant, or the same.

The difference from a mutation can be enormous. For example, the current virus has about a 50% mortality rate. It is very like when that when it mutates, this mortality rate will go down. The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 had only a 2.5-5% mortality rate and that was without Tamiflu. That doesn't mean this one will mutate into only having a 2.5-5% rate. It will likely have a higher rate, and frankly, I think a lot of the predictions of how many will die from an H5N1 mutant pandemic are lowball figures because they do tend to assume a pretty low mortality compared to what it's currently at.

But you're basically comparing apples and oranges at this point. A pandemic flu will not be the current strain because the current strain simply isn't contagious enough.

This is nice work, but...

[thisisfrankscortex]

I think the most notable thing about this paper is that the last sentances read "It is our hope that the process described herein will be of value in improving the opply of oseltamivir and in reducing the cost. With regard to the latter, the process described herein in in the (unpatented) public domain."

Re:Good news...

[meringuoid]

If we believe the hype that the bird flu is a real threat to the health of the people of the world... which despite the hype from the media and the upcoming ABC made for tv movie... I have yet to see any credible evidence of despite much looking.

Every so often, a mutant flu strain arises that kills millions of people. Most famously in 1919, when more people died from flu than were killed in the entire four years of unprecedentedly bloody warfare just past. IIRC there were two more major flu pandemics in the twentieth century, although neither were as devastating.

Sooner or later there WILL be another flu with the ability to kill millions. The only way we have of preventing another 1919 is to spot the threat before it gets going and prepare a vaccine. Hence the worry over H5N1. It's entirely possible that it will all blow over. It's also possible that it will mutate to a form that can spread from one human to another, and become pandemic. If it doesn't, well, great. If it does, we'll be glad we prepared.

For myself, I'm far more afraid of a mutant strain of bird flu killing me than I am of terrorists killing me. That said, I'm more afraid of being hit by a car than I am of either of them, but that doesn't stop me crossing the road...

Re:Good news...

[mikeisme77]

Exactly. The media is always blowing something out of proportion as the next big threat to humanity (or the US):

-Killer bees (there was a movie on this one too)
-SARS
-AIDs (several movies)
-Terrorism
-Anthrax (related to the above)
-Small Pox coming back
-Etc.

While they're all threats, they aren't just going to all of a sudden just break out all over the place. The media loves to feed off our fears--as it sells almost as well as sex. When it explodes, THEN freak out about it, but until then enjoy life.

Mortality rates

[tjwhaynes]

For example, the current virus has about a 50% mortality rate. It is very like when that when it mutates, this mortality rate will go down.

I have problems with these mortality figures. It's very easy to determine who died from bird flu - you have a body, death certificate, medical records, etc. It is NOT easy to work out who has had the bird flu and has survived in the general populace - not all sick people will have seen a doctor and some may not even have developed symptoms. Without doing a massive study looking for bird-flu antibodies, the mortality figures are almost certainly overblown, maybe by orders of magnitude. This applies whether we are talking about the impact on birds or on humans.

Cheers,
Toby Haynes