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Sony To Go From First To Worst?
There have been many analyst predictions in the early days of the next-gen consoles, but rarely have they been so direct. DFC Intelligence President David Cole has gone on record saying there's a very real possibility Sony could lose this leg of the race to Microsoft and Nintendo. From the article: "Sony's clear strength is the first factor: brand strength and current market position. The glaring weakness of the PlayStation 3 is price, especially when compared to the competition. However, it is more than just an issue of whether the PlayStation brand strength can justify a premium price. Of course, Sony would like to point to the hardware horsepower and extra features like Blu-ray. The problem is that is only one factor in our forecasting matrix. Furthermore, with the competition having features like Xbox Live and the Nintendo Wii controller, the PS3 may not have that much of an advantage in the elusive 'Wow Factor.'" 1up Editor Sam Kennedy has further musings on this subject, with Next Generation reporting that there may be a problem getting high yields in the PS3 production process.
PS3 is a computer not a gaming console, they have really screwed up, and this article is right, they could loose at lot of market share.
I have to disagree with you, there. Which consoles has the best titles depends on what you want from a game.
Pure Fun: Nintendo
FPS/Action: Microsoft
RPG/Story: Sony
Each of the big 3 attracts these types of games to their console because that has been what sold the console in past. Nintendo also get a nudge towards innovation and niche, as well, but until the Wii comes out, that nudge isn't strong enough to make someone buy their console.
"If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; But if you really make them think, they'll hate you." - DM
After refusing to use my Sony fanboyism, I objectively looked at the next-gen consoles. This article is unfortunately right. Unless Sony's mission is to make it seem so expensive now, then drop it $100 for each version by launch date, I can't see the PS remaining the #1 console. Until the price drops significantly over the next few years or they DO as I suggest and drop the price towards launch date to make a huge buzz, I see the Wii coming out on top.
Your analogy would be true for in-generation comparisons. In this case, however, I think it would make more sense to say that Sony beat Microsoft to win the last World Cup (and Nintendo barely got out of the first round), but in this World Cup Microsoft has already won their first game of pool play while Sony and Nintendo are still prepping for their first game. Oh, and Sony keeps cutting players. ;)
My other sig is funny.
I too disagree. It seems that for generations, the most powerful console was not the leader.
By RAW SPECS:
Genesis was stronger than the SNES,
N64, then Dreamcast > PS1
GameCube & X-Box > PS2.
Gameboy DS. - The DS is still outselling the PSP in every territory, and is practically a cultural phenomenon in Japan where it, (and the DS Lite) is currently outselling the PSP about 8:1
Also as far as games they do cater to 3 different Market Segments (at least in thie generation) and It's not X-Box is teh 1337, and Nintendo is teh Kiddie... crap people keep spewing.
Strengths:
Sony - Single player games. Especially RPG's.
Microsoft - Online Multiplayer. X-box live is light years beyond Sony's current offerings.
Nintendo - Offline Multiplayer. Nintendo still has some of the best Arcade style, pick up and play Party games out there.
It will be interesting to see how the next gen shakes out.
Religion for nerds. Stuff that really matters
Didn't Sony themselves say that people will buy the PS3 even if there were no games out for it?
I still have not forgiven them for installing rootkits on all of my boxen, thus 0wning my boxen. It just goes to show: "0wn me and I won't 0wn your stuff."
Happily for Sony's Investors, the PS3's pricing indicates it is being aimed at a demographic higher than the 12-18 year-old market, so I'm guessing that what you "think" does not matter.
Instead they say the same Lies they said when defeating the dreamcast, and release a slightly more powerful but not in any significant way PS3 to fight the XBox at pushing twice the price (in the UK) a year later.
But this time we know that Sony is dicking us around. It won't go well for them.
P.S. I haven't ignored the Wii - I just don't believe it relates to these two machines anymore. Thankfully - which will hopefully means more people will give nintendo a chance this time round.
http://skeptobot.blogspot.com/ - A site for the Renaissance man and woman
*looks back at Sony's E3 2006 conference* *Sees Ridge Racer, Giant Enemy Crabs, and 599 US dollars* I'm pretty sure we all came to this conclusion after that.
The only numbers I need to see are MSRP and release date. I concur with your assessment. Kiss my DVD loving ass BluRay.
As a PS2 and GameCube (Not to mention the PCs) owner (and potential XBMC buyer) I will not purchase the PS3. Let me count the reasons why.
RootKit
console Price
RootKit
MemoryStick
RootKit
MiniDisc
Betamax
Game Price
RootKit
RumbleLess Controller
About the only thing that interested me was linux. But damn I can build a pretty beefy linux box for the cost of just the console.
Oh, and did I mention the RootKit thing?
OSGGFG - Open Source Gamers Guide to Free Games
.er
5 24741
There's more than these gaming factors that's going to contribute to how Sony places. The HDDVD market will influence this as well. One of the primary functions Sony seems to have planned for the PS3 is market penetration for its Blue-Ray player. They've sacraficed things like cheap price and possibly even earlier release to include the Blue-Ray player. If the HD format war doesn't flop out; it could become an important factor as those who what HD have to decide if the PS3 with Blue Ray or Microsoft with an accessory HD DVD (or internal HD DVD for the 360 if you think like Toshiba: http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3151889) This have anywhere from a huge to an insignificant effect on what the Console war. It really is more of a Great Home Entertainment War rather than a format war and a console war; they are well intertwined.
Or atleast, they will be. I speculate that the Format side of the GHE War will slog along in a prolonged sitzkrieg for a year or even more before it starts to pick up as more consumers finally migrate (slowly) along to HD. With the sitzkrieg on the format front, Sony's Blue Ray justification for its price will languish; costing it valuable ground against Microsoft's established console (which I might mention consumers may enjoy not having HD DVD costing them up front when they don't need it yet; they can upgrade on their own terms, possibly cheaper than buying Blue ray before they need it.) Once the Format front picks up, the Console side will invigorate to as Sony's console will likely have come down atleast some, becoming a more economic competitor. That's the Great Home Entertainment War solved for X in terms of Y.
But, as I said, you can only solve for X in terms of Y and vice versa. It's really anybodies guess what the effect Blue Ray and HD DVD will have. Then their is the Z factor...Nintendo. But, I've already talked about what possibilities Nintendo can have, both on consoles and on HD Formats http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=188332&cid=15
Demented But Determined.
What are the strong points of the PS3?
Good hardware
Compatibility with the PS2
BluRay
Now, looking back to the PS2, we see similar factors, and the PS2 was a huge success. But with a very important difference: The PS2 was WAY cheaper than the (inflation adjusted) equivalent of 600 bucks.
The target audience for a consumer device costing 600$ is very distinct from one costing about 200-300. Instead of the young players market, you'd have to target hardcore gamers and people who can and will spend 600 without too much effort. And most of all, the PS3 will need its "Halo": A killer game, a 'must have', a signature title that makes you WANT to buy that PS3.
BluRay is cute, but useless as a selling point. First of all, the format war is far from being decided. And, let's be honest folks, how many of you got the PS2 as a cheap replacement for a DVD player? I know nobody who has a PS2 and no other means to play DVDs, more importantly, better (especially considering sound quality) alternatives? So BluRay will certainly NOT be a selling argument, unless there are no BluRay-only players out there by the time the PS3 comes along that are cheaper than 600. And, frankly, I would NOT get a player that only plays one format (I wouldn't get a player for either of those DRMcrippled formats, but let's assume I'm a movie junkie for now). Murphy's law predicts that, when you side with one of the format contestants, you side with the wrong one. So people will play it save and wait for players that can deal with BluRay and HDDVD.
Without the 'must have' game, people will stick with the PS2 'til the PS3 is cheap, if they already have PS2 games. If they don't, they might turn for Nintendo (if they don't want to spend much money) or the X360 (if they do). Price is definitly no selling argument for the PS3, and the X360 is already out. If someone didn't have PS2 games and wanted a top level console, they already bought a X360.
The 'geek factor' does also not play in favor of Sony. Too often the news about Sony are not really geek friendly, their MD-Recorders (that couldn't export the recorded sounds sensibly), rootkits in audio-CDs, not really something that works in their favor. Sony is about to become 'uncool', too. And I've noticed a significant decline in quality over the last few years.
So the only chance I see for the PS3 is a 'killer application', something that makes you want a PS3. Without, I'd guess people would turn to Nintendo or Microsoft.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Actually, in terms of total consoles sold, that's not correct. You can do the search for yourself, but here's one link to a wikipedia article on the console wars which includes total worldwide sales numbers. The relevant set for your comment is:
- PlayStation 2: 103.69 million
- Gamecube: 20.85 million
- Xbox: 24 million
In addition to that, the Xbox number is from December, while the PS2 and GC numbers are from March, suggesting that the Xbox number is actually higher than 24 million (though probably only slightly, because of the release of the Xbox360).If you want to argue that Gamecube games are more fun, or that Nintendo makes more money on every console, that may be the case (I've no idea). But it's not correct to say that the Gamecube beat out the Xbox in the last generation of consoles.
You just come along with me and have a good time. The Galaxy's a fun place. You'll need to have this fish in your ear.
Was this sarcasm?
Geeks, please don't respond that you love Nintendo... we all know that many of you don't care about things like story. I'm talking about MOST adults.
Yes, geeks don't like story. That is why they don't bother to read not only Lord of the Rings, but also all the other Tolkien books, letters and journals to get more into Middle-Earth. That is why there is hardly any backstory to Warhammer. That would be why there are only a few Star Wars Expanded Universe books. That is why Dungeons & Dragons has so little source material. That is why the original Half-Life did so poorly.
[T]heir profit margin is going to be significantly better than either MS or Nintendo with this generation.
MS I can understand, maybe. Nintendo only sells their console for losses for a few months each generation, and at that usually only in the single digit losses -- as in $1-$9 per unit. Sony and MS both lose hundreds of dollars on each unit.
It's fine if you feel like you have to spend a lot of money on "mature" things to boost your ego. The rest of us will base fun on things other than "mature content" and price.
Stop Global Warming!
Just say no to irreversible processes!
Nintendo is still for the kiddies. They have gimmicky controllers with a Fisher-Price look and feel.
The Lite and Wii do not look like a fisherprice toys. This only shows you bias.
More importantly, most grown-ups don't want to play Mario anything
My flatshare consists of mid-twenties adults, and my girlfriend, all of who aren't geeks (I hide my true self from them). And they almost only play games with Mario in. Mario Kart, Super Mario Bros, Wario Ware etc. And even games with silly little kiddy Monkeys like Monkey Ball. An Aside: Monkey Target is the most popular game I have even seen with actual Adults - I have seen it devour entire weekends of non-gamers.
I'm talking about MOST adults.
No. You. Are. Not.
Nintendo focuses on twitch games that generally skip story altogether, or have some bizarre Japanese theme that most adults can't figure out.
Fire Emblem, Zelda, Advance Wars, Geist, Metroid, Paper Mario (though that is a bit bizzare) all disagree. You also seem to forget that other people deveolpe for Nintendo consoles: Resident Evil 4, Phoenix Wright, Trauma Centre, Second Sight, Prince of Persia, Killer 7 and so on.
Also there seems to be a big theme of hating Japanese games through your post - but you do realise that Sony and most of it's "AAA" games are in fact Japanese?
The X-Box has moved in to the mainstream generic person arena
That doesn't even make sense. The XBox is a great machine - but you can't pretend it's in anyway mainstream - like I would be fool to pretend the gamecube was. But still I would expect mainstream to at least mean it also appealed to women, and men.
Also, people like me, who want more out of a video game than a twitch reflex also want a good story with movie level production value. I'm not interested in the typical Japanimation demon/dragon/kid hero story that is as embarrassingly bad as it is incomprehensible. I want good gameplay out of a game, of course, but I also want mind-blowing graphics and sound (The PS3 is supposed to be, unquestionably, the most powerful system). My game system gets plugged into a high-end amp and speaker system, and a high-end TV. I want all of that, packaged with a story that was written and created by somebody who speaks English (not Engrish), and some good Hollywood actors. I could care less about $600 or even $800 for a game box. And, I couldn't care less if the games are $70 each. It's worth it because 1. I've seen more games than most people have and 2. money really isn't an issue to me at this point. I just want the best.
I think that speaks for itself - get over yourself. Your awesome - we understand.
http://skeptobot.blogspot.com/ - A site for the Renaissance man and woman
It's instructive here to note that those two games are the 4th and 5th in their respective series. One is not really known as a multiplayer game, and the other is a fighting game, a genre that's been slowly dying since the mid-'90s. This is not how you make the PS3's Halo.
Of course, I say this knowing that the easiest way to kill off the PS3 would be for Bungie to release Halo 3 the same day the PS3 launches, although I'm not sure if it'll happen or not.
This is my sig. There are many others like it, but this one is mine.
The gamecube ... is by far the least powerful system.
Spoken like a someone with an *excellent* grasp on computer hardware.
Tell me, where did you learn that? On PS2 and XBox forums?
Let me let you in on a secret: The Gamecube and XBox hardware are really *very* close to each other in performance, with the Gamecube having better multi-texturing and the XBox having shader support and *slightly* better polygon crunching performance. The PS2 isn't even close, hardware performance wise, to either system. If you'd like details, there are plenty of reviews out there by people more knowledgeable than yourself. If you'd like proof, LOOK AT RESIDENT EVIL 4 AND METROID PRIME, to name just two of the best looking games to come out during this console generation.
And here's where I give Nintendo props: They managed to cram an extremely elegant, efficient, powerful system into a tiny $200 box. Microsoft did produce a 'superior' system, but it's more than twice as big and 50% more expensive.
The Wii looks to be another engineering marvel, if they manage to fit the amount of power they've promised in the form factor that they've previewed. The XBox 360 is another beast, and it could probably double as a fucking hair dryer even when doing something as simple as watching a DVD.
(Note to Sony and Microsoft: The only major heat-generating component that gets into my stereo cabinet is my Denon receiver. I don't have any desire to add active cooling to cover up your engineering mistakes.)
Jesus was a liberal
Each of those 200 people has a blog. By posting about this boycott on the blog, the idea can be syndicated and systematically multicast to a large part of the blogosphere. By blogoscoping to the video game micromarket, we can dynamically multiplex the thinking to create a global blogtext of anti-Sony zeitgeist, thus showing that Sony may not 0wn our boxen.
In short, Sony will suffer the same fate as Dan Rather. It will be utterly destroyed, left with no money and no influence with anyone of any consequence in the known blogiverse.
Even so, what "most adults" cite as good story isn't any better. Witness the standard movie theater fare on any given day. There's usually not so much as story, as an opportunity to infuse some rudimentary plot devices in the quiet moments between sex and violence.
Stop Global Warming!
Just say no to irreversible processes!
I see you've been modded "troll" already, but I'll just assume you genuinely hold those opinions.
First, on the current generation: I don't get why you think X-Box has "moved in to the mainstream generic person arena." That would be the PS2. The X-box has carved out a niche of FPS players and American RPG fans, and is struggling with other genres. The PS2 is what most people think of when they think "video game machine" these days. The PS1 basically invented the concept of a console as a generic appliance for adults, and the PS2 succesfully extended that franchise. The PS2 has much, much higher sales rates, it's demographics are much wider, and has a wider selection of games.
Nintendo is the console for people who don't mind playing video games, and don't need the words "combat" or "warrior" in the game's title. That's probobly why they have higher sales in Japan than in the States.
Your argument about being an "adult demographic" with lots of money to throw around sounds a lot like what Microsoft were saying when they were hyping the X-box rpior to launch. I suppose it's not suprising that you like both PS3 and X-box, then. But that strategy worked horribly for Microsoft, who found out that:
1) There aren't that many rich adults who want to spend big bucks on games, especially when the PS2 can grab the cheap/simple market and the PC can grab the expensive/complex end of the market.
2) Kids actually have more buying power than adults because they can get their parents to buy games for them. It's way easier to nag your mom into buying a machine than convincing your wife/gf that it was a great idea to get one. Plus, there are way more kids who want to play video games than there are adults who do.
3) If your consoles are going to sell fewer units(because of a smaller market of adults), you need to either sell more games per person, or increase the price per game. The former you can't do because game-playing adults often have less time to play games than kids, and the latter ends up restricting your audience to richer folks or pushing them to cheaper consoles(PS2). Oh, and smaller market = less developer interest.
For above reasons, the X-box's original marketing strategy failed, and now they have to play second fiddle to Sony. Interestingly, Sony seems intent to follow them with the PS3. If it weren't for the terrible impression left by the X-box(especially in Japan) and anticipation of the Wii/Ps3, I suspect X-box 360 would be able to grab the Ps2's spot as the 'generic' console of that generation.
Oh, and given the cost of creating games these days, it's quite possible that there won't be much of a difference between XB360 and PS3 games. Its really takes a lot of skilled artists and programmers to take modern consoles to the limit of their graphics, and it may not be worth going to the PS3's capabilities past the XB360's.
I've also been gaming for 25 years and have disposable income. You can pretty much negate everything you just said in that post, and that would sum up my feelings pretty well. I guess my anecdotal feelings cancel yours out, right?
Also, people like me, who want more out of a video game than a twitch reflex also want a good story with movie level production value.
Production value, or a good story? There's a huge difference. Hint: most mainstream movies don't have good stories, either. I've played maybe a handful of 'adult' games with 'mature' themes (Killer 7 comes to mind) that were any more complex, story wise, than a kids' cartoon. Hint 2: giving your story sex and blood doesn't magically make it complex.
Splinter Cell? Crap. Final Fantasy 7+? Crap. Paper Mario? Crap. Resident Evil? Crap. Sure, they're all fun games, but the stories are all inane and pretty much just get in the way. Please don't make me waste time with a story that I can guess by looking at the cover of the game.
I'm talking about MOST adults.
No, you're talking about MOST single adult males. All of the adults sitting in my living room last night (9 of us, and 5 were women) were all playing Smash Brothers Melee, Mario Golf, and Bomberman. Maybe you're content to play single-player RPGs and on-line FPSes, but some of us like to have a few friends over (especially of the female persuasion), and party games are king here.
Oh, and your willingness to spend too much money on something just to prove how awesome your home theater is really speaks far more about you than about the game industry.
--Jeremy
Jesus was a liberal
However, we should emphasize a third place finish for Sony is only one of several possible scenarios.
Several? Er, there's two other scenarios besides Sony comes third. Sony comes first, or Sony comes second.
Unless they're also factoring in the 'Sony gets trampled by Godzilla' and 'the Phantom rules all with its version of Duke Nukem Forever' scenarios.
You must think in Russian.
Just as a point the iPod has a 80 MHz Arm processor which is able to decode MP3's and MPEG 4 encoded video's; a feat that would require a Pentium 2 in the 500MHz range. Clock speed doesn't matter ...
In fact, one thing to consider is that after Nintendo produced the Gamecube in association with Art X/ATI and IBM, Microsoft and Sony choose to use IBM for their CPU, and Microsoft choose ATI to produce their GPU; the performance/cost of the Gamecube was unbeatable.
Now, the general public doesn't know too much about the Wii; some information which is public about the system is that ATI produced a custom GPU that was built from the ground up, IBM produced a custom CPU, and both were produced using a 90nm process (the Gamecube used a 180nm process). To put this number into perspective the PowerPC 970FX and 970MP both were produced using a 90nm process, the 970FX reached 3GHz and the 970MP is a dual core processor that reached 2.5GHz; at the form factor of the Wii I wouldn't be surprised to see a variation of either of those processors at 2GHz (information from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PowerPC_970). The GPU on the Wii is a slightly different beast, a friend of mine who was a former intern at EA and is now a Peon at another gaming company was telling me that the Wii is not about Photorealistic graphics but that doesn't mean that it isn't powerful; in his (brief) explanation the other systems are designed around expending more artist resources creating content which enables the content to look more realistic, whereas the Wii is about eliminating boundries so artist can obtain their vision.
I may be doing a poor job explaining this, but what you will notice when you look at Wii screenshots or videos is that there is a lot occuring on screen (tons of objects), there are no artifacts caused by polygonalization, the textures are highly detailed crisp and clear, and there are absolutely no normal maps. The artistic style is very similar to what you'd see on the Gamecube but the Wii is in a completely different weight class.
At one large store that's taking pre-orders in my country, the PS3 is already outselling the XBox 360.
"Nine times out of ten, starting a fire is not the best way to solve the problem." - my wife
"There's no "most wanted" games"
Maybe for you in USA there isn't, ask any gaming Japanese and I'm sure they will think different.
"no Blue-Ray"
What? Are you only trolling?
"no "it's-not-a-console-it's-a-computer""
We don't know that yet do we? If it comes with Linux and you can start up a desktop it is, isn't it?
"PS3 is too expensive"
It probably have better hardware than the X360, it's backward compatible I think which means it has a shitload of games, it's price aren't much over X360 premium and I think online gaming is free, you get a next-gen DVD-player and a real HDMI-output.
"the performances are worse than xbox360"
Says random dude on the Internet?
It is funny. I prefer to use video game console analogies to understand sports.
You see, the Oakland Raiders are just like the Neo Geo whereas the Washington Redskins are more like 3DO...
Avoid Missing Ball for High Score