Japan Plans 30-Year Supercomputer Forecasts

BaltikaTroika writes "According to a ministry representative, 'Japan is planning ultra long-range 30-year weather forecasts that will predict typhoons, storms, blizzards, droughts and other inclement weather.' Maybe they should tell their secret to my local weatherman, who usually can't even get tomorrow's weather right. Whatever happened to chaos?"

Comments

Chaos?

[TheAngryMob]

Whatever happened to chaos?

Pfft. Chaos is so predictable.

Re:Chaos?

[Anonymous Coward]

If Steve Ballmer throws a chair in Redmond, three top-ranking Google execs 1000 miles away in Mountain View mysteriously keel over and die...

Forecasts okay now

[Foobar of Borg]

Maybe they should tell their secret to my local weatherman, who usually can't even get tomorrow's weather right.

Actually, those days are pretty much gone now. With all the latest computational models for weather, as opposed to what was essentially pattern matching before, I find that the weather forecasts on the whole are pretty accurate out to a few days. As for 30 years, I would be more than a little skeptical since you even have to account for things like solar flares and sunspots, or you get small inaccuracies that will grow more massive the further out you get. But, with the new Hello Kitty Supercomputer Center, perhaps they are able to account for this in their computations.

Yeah, but...

[TechDogg]

will that thing be able to predict when Godzilla will strike again? I think that Japenese people need that kind of information, IMHO.

It all depends on your assumptions

[MarkusQ]

It all depends on your assumptions. Look at Venus. The weather there is dead simple to predict. Heavily overcast, highs in the mid 900's, with poisonous smog in low lying areas through the weekend.

The only reason the Earth's weather seems hard to predict now is that we haven't (yet) experienced a run-away feedback loop. If you posit that we're starting into one, making accurate daily forecasts thirty years out will be much easier than sticking around to see how well you did.

--MarkusQ

Re:Yes another person

[Petersson]

Climate or weather, whatever. I'm joining The Big Jump For Nicer Weather in less than 20 hours.

http://www.worldjumpday.org/

Re:A Few Things

[aminorex]

Sure. A condition of confusion is inherent in being a pilot. You can become less confused by switching to another hobby, such as being a logician, or a gynecologist. Did that help?

Re:Useless indeed

[MobileTatsu-NJG]

It isn't just a matter of temperature, pressure, moisture content, UV radiation, and infrared radiation, which are the main variables your local forecaster uses to try and predict weather trends. Solar wind, ground cover, cloud formation, cosmic rays, vulcanism, atmospheric electrodynamics: these are extra variables that influence the weather in ways we can't understand. And just to screw up the mixture a bit more, add global warming.

That's true. Do you think they're going to install GPS trackers on all the butterflies in the world?

Re:Useless indeed

[vertinox]

All it takes is one large volcano to erupt and it'll throw off all your predictions.

Don't panic. The 30-Year weather predicting supercomputer predicted this and is designing supercomputer that is powerful enough and specifically built for predicting volcanic activity.

However, it will take 30 years to do so... Much to relief of weather who were protesting that their livelihoods were at stake.

Re:Useless indeed

[DroppedPacket]

You may however be able to predict general paterns over a significant period of time.

OK, here it goes:

Rain followed by Sun
Cooling trends with possible snow in the upper elevations
Warming weather after winter followed by hot summer weather
Godzilla attack
Occasional typhoon
Small chance of a tsunami followed by death and destruction

So either I'm a supercomputer, or this is easier than we thought...