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Apple iPhone - To Be, or Not to Be?
An anonymous reader writes "With the Apple WWDC looming on Monday, the internet once again beats itself silly over what Steve Jobs has in store. At the most fanciful end of the scale, there's talk of the Apple iPhone, to which CNET says, 'keep on dreaming', and Gizmodo says, 'no visible evidence'. The only solid evidence of an iPhone, beyond the endless mocked-up images, is the discovery of hidden phone-related code in a recent iPod updater. Macrumors has some info on what the keynote may contain -- and there's no mention of an iPhone. So, as the rumor mill continues to grind over the weekend, let the predictions begin. Is there an Apple iPhone, or is there not?"
It seems that Apple has something clever up their sleeve according to Robert Scoble: "Speaking of Apple," Mr. Scoble concluded, "they are readying a dizzying amount of new products. I wish I could camp out at an Apple store during the World Wide Developer Conference on August 7th. I wish I could say more, but that'd get me sued by Steve Jobs and I don't need that kind of heck right now." http://www.macobserver.com/article/2006/08/03.8.sh tml and http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/2006/07/31/mclaws- is-right-on-windows-vista-ship-date
Ok, ok ... so this isn't really news, but it is still fun to work oneself up into a lather about the latest and greatest from His Steveness.
Now that I live in London I can't really attend these fab Apple confabs. I was there in NYC back in whenever it was when Steve said, "now reach under your seats" and found a lovely new Apple Pro Mouse. Those were heady days, indeed.
As a wannabe photographer (http://homepage.mac.com/nevermore/), I keep hoping for speed boosts to Aperture ... though I'm sure it'll scream on the new MacPro's ... or is that Mac Pro sans article (as in, don't eat iPod, say hello to iMac)?
And I'd really love to trade in my trusty olde iPod (10GB 2nd Gen - battered from falling into the cross-trainer at the gym, but still very much functional) for something with a wide screen that plays movies.
I'm doubting its ready for debut yet. I also think its a big enough deal that when the *do* show it, they won't mix it in with a bunch of other announcements at WWDC. It will get its own, big time show.
This is a market they will address. During their last earnings telephone conference they basically let everyone know that they are aware that the phone and iPod markets are converging and that they are not sitting still. So its a matter of when, not whether.
The time for Apple to release a cellphone was five years ago. Not because it would have been a roaring success - its success would probably have been identical then to a release today, moderate sales, sitting as an overpriced niche product next to the phone enabled Treos and the Nokia 9000 series. Maybe higher - the RAZR proved people still value aesthetics and will pay a premium for it. But what was then is not now. Today Apple has the iPod. The iPod is of critical importance to Apple's medium term future.
And the iPod is facing a competitor, the MP3 playing mobile phone. They're not that good right now, but capacities are going through the roof, so they will be soon. Indeed, get something like a Motorola V635 (which has a transflash port) and you can get a gigabyte card for it today and store a significant amount of music with you, listening to it on bluetooth headphones. iPods in this environment become a way of playing iTMS tracks, and pretty much nothing else. As long as the interfaces in these phones are "good enough", and they have enough capacity, there's no compelling reason for someone to buy a separate MP3 player.
Now, here's the problem. If Apple enters that market with a phone, they're fucked, because whether it's 2001 or 2006, their phone will be the niche - or at most "significant player amongst ten others" - product I mentioned. RAZRs are doing well, but they're not 3/4 of the market. So Apple's percentage of the MP3 player market will plummet. This has direct consequences for the long term viability of their multimedia business.
Apple's one chance at continuing to control the market the way it does today is to license the technology. If they act as a neutral party (rather than a competitor), they can continue to profit from the lion's share of the MP3 players out there, and can continue to grow and control their multimedia business.
If they sell a phone, they become a competitor. They will have problems licensing the technology, and they will become an also-ran.
Everything you're seeing that "points" towards Apple involvement in cellphones points equally at licensing schemes, and often points away from standalone phones. Nobody's (Apple or anyone else) going to make the iPod nano firmware the basis of a mobile phone operating system, but they may be willing to incorporate an iPod nano's core into a mobile phone.
Apple's one try out in this area was the ROKR. The ROKR was a stop-gap, and by all accounts Apple, not Motorola, deliberately crippled it (the 100 song limit, for example.) This should not be judged as "what Apple will do if they take licensing seriously", instead it should be seen as Apple trying to delay mass consumer acceptance of MP3 playing cellphones until the technology is good enough the things just can't be resisted any more.
No Apple cellphone will come from Apple. You'll see cellphones "with iPod(tm) technology" from a variety of manufacturers, but Apple is not in a position to make cellphones and almost certainly doesn't want to enter that particular snake pit of a market. If Apple releases a cellphone over the next few months, an Apple designed and branded unit not mostly owned by Nokia, Motorola, or some other manufacturer, I'd advise selling whatever AAPL stock you have, because it'll be their XBox: a product they'll be subsidizing for years trying to get into a market they have little experience of.
You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
"Apple is focusing on media as its second core competency."
:-)
And that is exactly why a lot of folks are predicting the phone as the next area of Apple's influence.
Look at the Moto phones with iTunes -- they suck and were purposely kept down because Apple was afraid of folks competing with them. Even then, I heard the iTunes was running on some java stack and not integrated directly into the electronics (well...integrated more so).
I know with a simply free phone I picked up from Cingular last year, I've now replaced my Palm...not that I've had much use for it anyways. The phones do almost everything except for stylus entry that my old device did -- and the only place you see items like this are in phones (i.e., the Treo phones...which I really considered until I realized they were HUGE and I like my pocket space...I'll take entering everything from my computer except for the few times I need to enter a quick phone number or appointment with a cryptic title until I can edit and resync).
And now music is getting in these things. Do I want to carry both an iPod AND a phone? The whole thing with the Palm was that I WAS carrying both. My iPod is now relegated to my car or occasionally an airplane these days because I really hate having the batman belt. Even the shitty phones have music on them and even though a good deal are locked and require a purchase from the cellular companys site -- people seem to be willing to pay the $2 - $4 for a song that is a quarter the quality of the similar iTunes download (and as I've found out, generally expire after a few months -- I just wanted to test out the interface because I had been helping a friend convert his tunes to ringtones -- he has a sizable audience and wanted to get 'optimized' files out with 'customized' content before his label did so he had a negotiating block as RTs weren't even considered when he signed on 10 years ago -- they count them as 'club sales' like Columbia House where the artist makes practically nothing).
Back to the point, Apple introduces a phone that replaces my current one AND my iPod -- I'm picking it up. There are only so many gadgets I'm carrying and if I have to make a choice, its my phone...and the more I talk to others, they feel the same way. Luckily Apple seems to be the kind of company that knows how to focus on the essentials which for me would be, Phone, Music, Phone Book, Calendar and a Java Interface to load up Salling Clicker so that I can use my remote to connect to my Mac across the room -- and leave the Java unrestricted so that we can add what we need WHEN we need it and nothing more. Most phones have this stuff, but navigating the interface to use them sucks...
We will see convergence, so does Apple want to be ahead of the curve like the iPod(but not way too ahead like the Newton -- which pretty much introduced us to what we have today) or does it want to be behind the curve like it has on too many other items...
Ok -- in the time I've been called away from my desk a few times now, this is probably redundant and should be modded accordingly
I think iphone is out of the scope of Apple, personally. But not to go too off topic, here's something I don't think phone companies, MPAA, RIAA, and god knows how many other acronyms would like to see at all. Think of it this way. You have the latest release from . You really like it. In comes a hacker who finds a cool method to phone a friend, let them listen to the latest tune, and the friend, who also happens to have this new program, record the data streaming to them, which btw wouldn't have interference etc, because the mic on the senders end would be disabled for the duration of the call. Welcome to yet another level in software piracy. Oh and for the standard users, the towers are all loaded up with data from people doing this. In Europe or South Korea something like this wouldn't be a problem, but in the U.S., with such a crappy infrastructure in all but the most urban of areas, this would cause a lot of issues and probably a ban on iphones from cellular providers.
I think Apple's experience with the (Motorola, was it?) last third party phone proved that it would be a risky proposition at best. Most people I heard griping about it were slamming how few songs it would hold. Add more flash memory, or a hard drive, and your power consumptioon would go up, so there goes your stand by time on the phone half of the device, especially if you spend a lot of time listening to music, or conversely, talking on the phone. Both functions take a lotta power. Put a big honkin' battery in there to make up for it, and you'd need an auxilliary power pack on yer belt!
I don't think it'll work. I do think tho, that the references to a phone in the iPod updates may refer to a bluetooth connectivity with the iPod. Didn't see what the references were, tho, so I could be off base.
I think this is just pure speculation. Fun speculation, to be sure, but speculation nevertheless.
Bring on the Reality Distortion Field! Its affect on me must be fading...
"Money is truthful. If a man speaks of his honor, make him pay cash." Notebooks of Lazarus Long, Robert A. Heinlein
If you haven't seen the iTalk spec commercial for by award winning filmmaker Christopher DeSantis (design by Gregory DeSantis) you should check it out. In past speculative posts on /., it seems that the biggest reason "Apple will never do this" is that "the people" don't want a device like this. With the success of the iPod, I don't see how people *wouldn't* want a device like this. Millions of people want an iPod... I'd guess that most of those people are also cell phone users. Why wouldn't I want one device that does both assuming that Apple does it right?
I think it would be a huge success should Apple decide to build an iTalk that is a high quality phone, maintains everything we expect in an iPod, has decent battery life, and has the popular Apple style. I haven't had a decent cell phone in years. I find most of today's phones too small, lots of plastic and very lightweight. Count me in the camp that hopes they build one at some point.
You're looking for a Palm Treo. The Developer Suite for it is totally free. It's got a no-nonsense phone, and can do basically anything you want it to. A couple of my more financially well-adjusted friends have them and absolutely adore them.
they are called dial phones over here, i have a few in my house on the landline. i'm not sure i'd want one on a mobile though :)
Saturated market? Please. There's lots of cell phones out there, sure. And they all pretty much suck ass. Choose one, several, or all of: Poor build quality. Poor integration with the other information sources/sinks in your life. Poor user interface. Poor performance (battery life, RF reception, sound reproduction). Apple can't do much about RF reception and has limited freedom with respect to battery life, but every other thing is either a software issue or an industrial design issue. Guess what two things Apple kicks ass at?
Cell phones are a saturated market much like digital audio players were a saturated market.
All they'd have to do is roll out a GSM-based phone and they'd have access to most of the world's market. Combine that with something like iCal and Addressbook for windows much like they've already ported iTunes to support iPod use on non-Apple platforms and they'd be printing money.
News for Geeks in Austin, TX
Are you kidding? What is the most common technology device carried by the 16 to 30-something demographic BESIDES the mp3 player? The cell phone of course. The only cellphone with brand recognition anywhere close to Apple is Motorola's RAZR and it's knockoffs. The cellphone market has seen little innovation in the past couple years and Apple is definatly capable of delivering a product that could open up some eyes. Consider the fact that such a phone, if it did exist, would use a familiar-Ipod like interface that millions of people have become comfortable with. Also consider the fact that it would easily interface with Apple's iLife suite and iTunes and suddenly a lot of people have a pretty compelling reason to buy a Mac. Apple's entrance into the cellphone market makes too much sense for it not to happen.
Similes are like metaphors
I work as a Director of Technology and I find it interesting that my Apple reps have been courting me so much these last few months. So much that they have not only given me a free pass to WWDC, but have invited me to sit in the VIP section at Jobs' keynote and to attend a special reception for IT professionals Monday evening.
Now, it may be that Apple always does this sort of thing to convince people like me to buy Macs. And we surely know that the Mac Pro will debut (as well as 10.5). But the full court press that I am getting suggests that this year's WWDC is as much about people like me as it is developers. Does this indicate anything about the content of Jobs' keynote? Probably not. But the treatment that I am receiving when I have almost nothing to do with development suggests that they are trying to garner as much interest as possible, and as much buy-in as possible.
A good product, along with good marketing and a little luck, will always do well in a saturated market. Look at the MacBooks... though I wouldn't buy one (a little overpriced and underpowered), for a college student who needs basic word processing and a shiny exterior it's a great product. It has sold despite it's high price point and the fear of not going with windows.
Imagine an iPhone, available in white and black, which is fully a touch screen device capable of multiple points of input at a time. No buttons except perhaps a scroll wheel on the side, and a switch for silent mode. Hold it in portrait and it's a phone, or an ipod, or a pda. Hold it in landscape and it's a widescreen video player or ebook reader (with a special grey contrast ratio to reduce eye strain). It has 40GB of storage with 8GB of ROM to preserve the battery. Heavy enough to feel sturdy in your hand, small enough to put in your pocket. Bluetooth, maybe WiFi....
I'd sure as hell buy one.
Here's a review for it. You can run whatever you want on it. You can write your own programs in C++, Java or probably other languages too. At least my unit has no stupid lockings. I can install whatever mp3 songs I want as ringtones or for listening. And there's even a third-party internet radio player that you can install.
s/Apple/Steve Jobs/ and you're right on the money. The original Mac was going to be a failure because nobody wanted locked-up proprietary boxes with no CLI or expansion capabilities (and besides that, the Lisa was an abysmal failure), Mac OS X was going to be a failure because who would want to run NeXT Step on a Mac? The iTunes was expected to be failure because 'everyone' downloads illegal music, why would they pay even 99 cents/song?
Everywhere along the way, Jobs saw ways of adding twists to make it work.
What I envision: an iPhone that not only has a built-in PDA based on either Palm OS or some slimmed-down Mac OS X, and not only has an iPod built into it, but one with a video iPod integrated as well. Oh, and you can add this optional GPS package for $X. Throw in built-in wifi and bluetooth connectivity, and you've got one hot device that people won't be able to keep their hands off of.
If Apple introduces it Monday, remember, you heard it here first!
My blog
And it's manufactured by SonyEricsson of all companies... More on that later though.
The iTunes phones will never gain critical mass acceptance as is because of the 100 song limit. That was Apple imposed as to not to interfere with iPod sales. One would have to believe that any iPhone that Apple (may) implement would have that in mind, that it would be not to interfere with its current Cash Cow, the iPod (and the Nano). So, if there would be an iPhone, I wouldn't see any Memory Card Interface and be limited to perhaps 512MB or 1GB of on-board memory, as a Shuffle replacement, with UI to match perhaps.
The Walkman Phone that I have (w800i) is surprisingly iPod like in its interface and its choice of Codecs (MP3, WAV, and AAC/MP4). When you press the Walkman Button, the playback screen, the UI, the entire experience is surprisingly iPod like, though changed in certain aspects. That with decent (just decent) information management, fast JAVA engine for Opera Mini action, and very clean interface makes the Walkman line of phones very credible competition for the iPhone.
Unfortunately, it has received zero marketing here in the US, and only one model's subsidized by any carrier (w600i by Cingular). So, it's very much an unknown quantity here in the US.
Which brings me to my final point. Unless Apple starts their own MVNO (and integrates with iTMS), or is willing to let Verizon with its VCAST and what not play nicely with their phones, it would likely be not picked up by any carriers for subsidy. And without that "Free" or "$99" price tag, I'm not sure if it'll be picked up by the public. After all, what's better than a Free RAZR?
My old and broken Nokia N-Gage for one. But then again...
[VODAK - Apply Directly to the Mouth!] [VODAK - Apply Directly to the Mouth!] [VODAK - Apply Directly to the Mouth!]
and more and more people are getting their media via their phones. every time I go to asia, I'm shocked by how pervasive cell phones are and how much more of a viable replacement for a desktop they're becoming.
wedge a decent phone into a video ipod, get the interface right and support EVDO (and whatever the asia-market equivalent is) transfer rates and you've got a product that pretty much jumps into the consumers wallet and takes however much it wants.
there is no need to sign your posts. this isn't usenet. your username is right there above your post. stop it.
Cell phones are one of the worst designed consumer electronics out there. Of anything, I wish Apple would choose to do a phone next, providing they can make a little money on it.
here is some semi physical evidence on you tube...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v520U3vS2iI
I contacted gizmodo, hopefully they will post it
I picked up a T-Mobile SDA, their WiFi smartphone, and I have dropped all plans for buying either an iPod or another PDA. Granted, WMP mobile is the most rudimentary player on the planet, but it plays music. And with all the other features of the SDA (Internet access wherever there's public WiFi, the regular PDA functions, and last but not least a cell phone) there's no justification in buying anything else.
Apple would've easily sold an iPod equivalent of the SDA to me. Being a Mac user, I'm not having fun rebooting just to get to ActiveSync (and that's just for installing apps - my contacts and calendar are on the Mac side). My current method of "synchronizing" songs and documents is moving the mini-SD card to a card reader and copying it by hand. In fact, they'd probably have made an iTMS user out of me (I just got started with iTunes on the Mac). As it is, half my music is pirated and the other half is Creative Commons.
So how about it? the iDA? GSM, AirPort Extreme, a lightweight WebKit-based browser, all the iPod features (music as well as PDA capabilities), and synchronization features built in to iTunes (for both Windows and Mac). Please?
There is definitely an iPhone on the drawing board since Apples own Phil Shiller (senior vice president of Worldwide Product Marketing) has already all but confirmed it. In a conferance call resently he told investors and media representatives that music phones aren't ready to compete with iPod now, but that is likely to change in the future. Apple is 'not sitting around doing nothing.' Sooner or later there will be an apple branded phone but I doubt it will be any time soon. I have however been wrong before... ;-)