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Apple iPhone - To Be, or Not to Be?
An anonymous reader writes "With the Apple WWDC looming on Monday, the internet once again beats itself silly over what Steve Jobs has in store. At the most fanciful end of the scale, there's talk of the Apple iPhone, to which CNET says, 'keep on dreaming', and Gizmodo says, 'no visible evidence'. The only solid evidence of an iPhone, beyond the endless mocked-up images, is the discovery of hidden phone-related code in a recent iPod updater. Macrumors has some info on what the keynote may contain -- and there's no mention of an iPhone. So, as the rumor mill continues to grind over the weekend, let the predictions begin. Is there an Apple iPhone, or is there not?"
I think apple knows it would lose tons of money in this saturated market.
I have serious doubts that the iPhone will ever come to be. Apple is focusing on media as its second core competency. The move to Intel chips and the looming possibilities opened up by virtualization will keep Apple moving in interesting and exciting directions for the next couple of years.
Combining and iPod, Newton and cell phone is an interesting idea, but we have seen that there is some consumer resistance to combining gadgets. Unless Apple can really come up with a new and exciting way to 'do' the cell phone, I don't expect Jobs will entertain the notion.
I know that there have been patents for mobile devices filed by Apple, but I expect many of those are part of their Mutually Assured Destruction stockpile of patents.
My 2 cents, for what its worth.
... I would randomy put in things like 'phone related code'. Imagine the fun of sitting back and seeing what rumors would start.
Good god. They are called rotary phones.
Damn kids.
"I use a Mac because I'm just better than you are."
The time for Apple to release a cellphone was five years ago. Not because it would have been a roaring success - its success would probably have been identical then to a release today, moderate sales, sitting as an overpriced niche product next to the phone enabled Treos and the Nokia 9000 series. Maybe higher - the RAZR proved people still value aesthetics and will pay a premium for it. But what was then is not now. Today Apple has the iPod. The iPod is of critical importance to Apple's medium term future.
And the iPod is facing a competitor, the MP3 playing mobile phone. They're not that good right now, but capacities are going through the roof, so they will be soon. Indeed, get something like a Motorola V635 (which has a transflash port) and you can get a gigabyte card for it today and store a significant amount of music with you, listening to it on bluetooth headphones. iPods in this environment become a way of playing iTMS tracks, and pretty much nothing else. As long as the interfaces in these phones are "good enough", and they have enough capacity, there's no compelling reason for someone to buy a separate MP3 player.
Now, here's the problem. If Apple enters that market with a phone, they're fucked, because whether it's 2001 or 2006, their phone will be the niche - or at most "significant player amongst ten others" - product I mentioned. RAZRs are doing well, but they're not 3/4 of the market. So Apple's percentage of the MP3 player market will plummet. This has direct consequences for the long term viability of their multimedia business.
Apple's one chance at continuing to control the market the way it does today is to license the technology. If they act as a neutral party (rather than a competitor), they can continue to profit from the lion's share of the MP3 players out there, and can continue to grow and control their multimedia business.
If they sell a phone, they become a competitor. They will have problems licensing the technology, and they will become an also-ran.
Everything you're seeing that "points" towards Apple involvement in cellphones points equally at licensing schemes, and often points away from standalone phones. Nobody's (Apple or anyone else) going to make the iPod nano firmware the basis of a mobile phone operating system, but they may be willing to incorporate an iPod nano's core into a mobile phone.
Apple's one try out in this area was the ROKR. The ROKR was a stop-gap, and by all accounts Apple, not Motorola, deliberately crippled it (the 100 song limit, for example.) This should not be judged as "what Apple will do if they take licensing seriously", instead it should be seen as Apple trying to delay mass consumer acceptance of MP3 playing cellphones until the technology is good enough the things just can't be resisted any more.
No Apple cellphone will come from Apple. You'll see cellphones "with iPod(tm) technology" from a variety of manufacturers, but Apple is not in a position to make cellphones and almost certainly doesn't want to enter that particular snake pit of a market. If Apple releases a cellphone over the next few months, an Apple designed and branded unit not mostly owned by Nokia, Motorola, or some other manufacturer, I'd advise selling whatever AAPL stock you have, because it'll be their XBox: a product they'll be subsidizing for years trying to get into a market they have little experience of.
You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
I think Apple's experience with the (Motorola, was it?) last third party phone proved that it would be a risky proposition at best. Most people I heard griping about it were slamming how few songs it would hold. Add more flash memory, or a hard drive, and your power consumptioon would go up, so there goes your stand by time on the phone half of the device, especially if you spend a lot of time listening to music, or conversely, talking on the phone. Both functions take a lotta power. Put a big honkin' battery in there to make up for it, and you'd need an auxilliary power pack on yer belt!
I don't think it'll work. I do think tho, that the references to a phone in the iPod updates may refer to a bluetooth connectivity with the iPod. Didn't see what the references were, tho, so I could be off base.
I think this is just pure speculation. Fun speculation, to be sure, but speculation nevertheless.
Bring on the Reality Distortion Field! Its affect on me must be fading...
"Money is truthful. If a man speaks of his honor, make him pay cash." Notebooks of Lazarus Long, Robert A. Heinlein
My phone plays music, and it's not even DRM protected:
:P
Dial:
6,5,4,5,6,6,6
5,5,5...6,6,6
6,5,4,5,6,6,6,6,5,5,6,5,4
(By the way, I am not responsible for any long distance or airtime charges you may incur)
Those new fangled things??
I prefer the type of phone that you crank in order to get the operators attention, and then say "Maybel, connect me to my mother."
Avoid Missing Ball for High Score
I work as a Director of Technology and I find it interesting that my Apple reps have been courting me so much these last few months. So much that they have not only given me a free pass to WWDC, but have invited me to sit in the VIP section at Jobs' keynote and to attend a special reception for IT professionals Monday evening.
Now, it may be that Apple always does this sort of thing to convince people like me to buy Macs. And we surely know that the Mac Pro will debut (as well as 10.5). But the full court press that I am getting suggests that this year's WWDC is as much about people like me as it is developers. Does this indicate anything about the content of Jobs' keynote? Probably not. But the treatment that I am receiving when I have almost nothing to do with development suggests that they are trying to garner as much interest as possible, and as much buy-in as possible.
Cell phones are one of the worst designed consumer electronics out there. Of anything, I wish Apple would choose to do a phone next, providing they can make a little money on it.