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Apple iPhone - To Be, or Not to Be?
An anonymous reader writes "With the Apple WWDC looming on Monday, the internet once again beats itself silly over what Steve Jobs has in store. At the most fanciful end of the scale, there's talk of the Apple iPhone, to which CNET says, 'keep on dreaming', and Gizmodo says, 'no visible evidence'. The only solid evidence of an iPhone, beyond the endless mocked-up images, is the discovery of hidden phone-related code in a recent iPod updater. Macrumors has some info on what the keynote may contain -- and there's no mention of an iPhone. So, as the rumor mill continues to grind over the weekend, let the predictions begin. Is there an Apple iPhone, or is there not?"
I think apple knows it would lose tons of money in this saturated market.
The only kind of i-Phone that I would like, would have the user use the click wheel like one of those turn dials phones that proceeded touch tone. That would be cool!
I have serious doubts that the iPhone will ever come to be. Apple is focusing on media as its second core competency. The move to Intel chips and the looming possibilities opened up by virtualization will keep Apple moving in interesting and exciting directions for the next couple of years.
Combining and iPod, Newton and cell phone is an interesting idea, but we have seen that there is some consumer resistance to combining gadgets. Unless Apple can really come up with a new and exciting way to 'do' the cell phone, I don't expect Jobs will entertain the notion.
I know that there have been patents for mobile devices filed by Apple, but I expect many of those are part of their Mutually Assured Destruction stockpile of patents.
My 2 cents, for what its worth.
I'll lay odds that the first iPhone will be kinda clunky anyways. I'll wait for the iPhone Nano (maybe even the alumninum iPhone Nano).
Well, maybe if they make it the same shade of off-white as my David Hockney sculpture and make the little Apple logo a bit more silver, I might think about it...
Gentoo Linux - another day, another USE flag.
Who'd turn off their iPod full of Rammstein just to answer a phone call from your Dümass friend? Seriously, though, if I buy a device for the purpose of listening to music, I don't want anything to stop it to answer a phone. If I'm listening to my music on my iPod on the way home from work on the subway or bus, I don't really want to be bothered in general; I can always check my phone to see if it's anyone important. If it's someone who may have critical news, then I'll probably answer it, but otherwise- well, the Music > the Conversation. What's with this whole "one piece stop shop" MP3 phone obsession anyway? Throwing all of your eggs into one basket will only leave you eggless and unhappy if that one basket asplodes, or gets stolen. I'd rather keep my devices separate, for both backup reasons and convenience reasons. I can also go camping with my MP3 player without having to be tethered to a cellphone...
Keeper of the Wang
Nevermind syncing features, like Bluetooth or ir. I would expect Apple to want to give that to their users.
So far, I have found few phones as functional as my (old) Nokia 3650, and it's broken. Is an iPhone a phone for me?
Zhrodague.net - I do projects and stuff too.
Well, the current iPod is not a video iPod according to Stephen, so maybe the next one will not be a phone?
Makes sense.
I choose to remain celibate, like my father and his father before him.
Any idea which one is real? Any of them that do not have the numbers in a 3 x 4 grid with right angles should not fly. There's no reason for those odd angles which make you have to look to find every button.
Where were you when the voynix came?
... I would randomy put in things like 'phone related code'. Imagine the fun of sitting back and seeing what rumors would start.
It seems that Apple has something clever up their sleeve according to Robert Scoble: "Speaking of Apple," Mr. Scoble concluded, "they are readying a dizzying amount of new products. I wish I could camp out at an Apple store during the World Wide Developer Conference on August 7th. I wish I could say more, but that'd get me sued by Steve Jobs and I don't need that kind of heck right now." http://www.macobserver.com/article/2006/08/03.8.sh tml and http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/2006/07/31/mclaws- is-right-on-windows-vista-ship-date
Ok, ok ... so this isn't really news, but it is still fun to work oneself up into a lather about the latest and greatest from His Steveness.
Now that I live in London I can't really attend these fab Apple confabs. I was there in NYC back in whenever it was when Steve said, "now reach under your seats" and found a lovely new Apple Pro Mouse. Those were heady days, indeed.
As a wannabe photographer (http://homepage.mac.com/nevermore/), I keep hoping for speed boosts to Aperture ... though I'm sure it'll scream on the new MacPro's ... or is that Mac Pro sans article (as in, don't eat iPod, say hello to iMac)?
And I'd really love to trade in my trusty olde iPod (10GB 2nd Gen - battered from falling into the cross-trainer at the gym, but still very much functional) for something with a wide screen that plays movies.
I'm doubting its ready for debut yet. I also think its a big enough deal that when the *do* show it, they won't mix it in with a bunch of other announcements at WWDC. It will get its own, big time show.
This is a market they will address. During their last earnings telephone conference they basically let everyone know that they are aware that the phone and iPod markets are converging and that they are not sitting still. So its a matter of when, not whether.
Combining and iPod, Newton and cell phone is an interesting idea, but we have seen that there is some consumer resistance to combining gadgets. Unless Apple can really come up with a new and exciting way to 'do' the cell phone, I don't expect Jobs will entertain the notion.
I doubt that an iPhone would compete with an iPod. I too want to see bits of the Newton restored to a (modern) product we can actually buy and use. I am so unpleased with modern handhelds and cellphones, that 'I want to believe' that Apple will make a useful product in this arena, where they are conspicuously absent.
Zhrodague.net - I do projects and stuff too.
The time for Apple to release a cellphone was five years ago. Not because it would have been a roaring success - its success would probably have been identical then to a release today, moderate sales, sitting as an overpriced niche product next to the phone enabled Treos and the Nokia 9000 series. Maybe higher - the RAZR proved people still value aesthetics and will pay a premium for it. But what was then is not now. Today Apple has the iPod. The iPod is of critical importance to Apple's medium term future.
And the iPod is facing a competitor, the MP3 playing mobile phone. They're not that good right now, but capacities are going through the roof, so they will be soon. Indeed, get something like a Motorola V635 (which has a transflash port) and you can get a gigabyte card for it today and store a significant amount of music with you, listening to it on bluetooth headphones. iPods in this environment become a way of playing iTMS tracks, and pretty much nothing else. As long as the interfaces in these phones are "good enough", and they have enough capacity, there's no compelling reason for someone to buy a separate MP3 player.
Now, here's the problem. If Apple enters that market with a phone, they're fucked, because whether it's 2001 or 2006, their phone will be the niche - or at most "significant player amongst ten others" - product I mentioned. RAZRs are doing well, but they're not 3/4 of the market. So Apple's percentage of the MP3 player market will plummet. This has direct consequences for the long term viability of their multimedia business.
Apple's one chance at continuing to control the market the way it does today is to license the technology. If they act as a neutral party (rather than a competitor), they can continue to profit from the lion's share of the MP3 players out there, and can continue to grow and control their multimedia business.
If they sell a phone, they become a competitor. They will have problems licensing the technology, and they will become an also-ran.
Everything you're seeing that "points" towards Apple involvement in cellphones points equally at licensing schemes, and often points away from standalone phones. Nobody's (Apple or anyone else) going to make the iPod nano firmware the basis of a mobile phone operating system, but they may be willing to incorporate an iPod nano's core into a mobile phone.
Apple's one try out in this area was the ROKR. The ROKR was a stop-gap, and by all accounts Apple, not Motorola, deliberately crippled it (the 100 song limit, for example.) This should not be judged as "what Apple will do if they take licensing seriously", instead it should be seen as Apple trying to delay mass consumer acceptance of MP3 playing cellphones until the technology is good enough the things just can't be resisted any more.
No Apple cellphone will come from Apple. You'll see cellphones "with iPod(tm) technology" from a variety of manufacturers, but Apple is not in a position to make cellphones and almost certainly doesn't want to enter that particular snake pit of a market. If Apple releases a cellphone over the next few months, an Apple designed and branded unit not mostly owned by Nokia, Motorola, or some other manufacturer, I'd advise selling whatever AAPL stock you have, because it'll be their XBox: a product they'll be subsidizing for years trying to get into a market they have little experience of.
You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
Which is kind of ironic, when you look at it...
That didn't really make sense. But I'm going to post it anyway.
Before I begin I must say that I really doubt that Apple would even consider forcing all new ipods to also be phones so you will be able to buy your plain old ipod to play music and have a seperate phone. Having said that ...
Is it hard to imagine that someone could build an audio player/phone combo where the user would decide what happens to calls when audio is playing? From mixing the two to pausing/muting the audio to take the call to putting the phone on silent, preferably with tweakability based on whether a number is in your phone book, what group(s) or even just if it has a CallerId or not.
Next, if Apple made a cell phone I would imagine they are far more likely to design it for the end user then most mobile manufacturers who design them for the networks. As a result you may even be able to turn off your phone/network without powering the whole device on and off (don't waste battery on the cellular network along with not being interupted). They may even (but I doubt it) build a unit to take two sim cards and allow you to have multiple networks (preferably simultaneously) so you could turn off your business/personal line at suitable times.
As for whats with the eggs in one basket ... simple, why carry multiple devices? Why not carry a swiss army knife instead of a dedicated blade, screwdrivers, pliers, corkscrew etc (if it is suitable for your needs)? Why have to backup multiple devices when you can backup one (and why don't mobile phones have a standard irda/bluetooth/card/cable dump and restore function, to a common open format).
Bottom line is the mobile industry is screwy, and will remain so until the end users take the purchasing power (curiously I've heard reports that bundling/subsidising phones with network contracts is illegal in Norway, the home of Nokia). Until then the phones you can buy will only be the phones the networks want you to be able to buy.
Never underestimate the dark side of the Source
I think iphone is out of the scope of Apple, personally. But not to go too off topic, here's something I don't think phone companies, MPAA, RIAA, and god knows how many other acronyms would like to see at all. Think of it this way. You have the latest release from . You really like it. In comes a hacker who finds a cool method to phone a friend, let them listen to the latest tune, and the friend, who also happens to have this new program, record the data streaming to them, which btw wouldn't have interference etc, because the mic on the senders end would be disabled for the duration of the call. Welcome to yet another level in software piracy. Oh and for the standard users, the towers are all loaded up with data from people doing this. In Europe or South Korea something like this wouldn't be a problem, but in the U.S., with such a crappy infrastructure in all but the most urban of areas, this would cause a lot of issues and probably a ban on iphones from cellular providers.
I think Apple's experience with the (Motorola, was it?) last third party phone proved that it would be a risky proposition at best. Most people I heard griping about it were slamming how few songs it would hold. Add more flash memory, or a hard drive, and your power consumptioon would go up, so there goes your stand by time on the phone half of the device, especially if you spend a lot of time listening to music, or conversely, talking on the phone. Both functions take a lotta power. Put a big honkin' battery in there to make up for it, and you'd need an auxilliary power pack on yer belt!
I don't think it'll work. I do think tho, that the references to a phone in the iPod updates may refer to a bluetooth connectivity with the iPod. Didn't see what the references were, tho, so I could be off base.
I think this is just pure speculation. Fun speculation, to be sure, but speculation nevertheless.
Bring on the Reality Distortion Field! Its affect on me must be fading...
"Money is truthful. If a man speaks of his honor, make him pay cash." Notebooks of Lazarus Long, Robert A. Heinlein
Dude, forget about turn signals. Sounds like you'd be better off just turning on your hazard lights.
I have seen the future, and it is inconvenient.
The Motorola SLVR L7, the ROKR, the V3i w/ iTunes. Apple doesn't need to make an "iPhone".
If you haven't seen the iTalk spec commercial for by award winning filmmaker Christopher DeSantis (design by Gregory DeSantis) you should check it out. In past speculative posts on /., it seems that the biggest reason "Apple will never do this" is that "the people" don't want a device like this. With the success of the iPod, I don't see how people *wouldn't* want a device like this. Millions of people want an iPod... I'd guess that most of those people are also cell phone users. Why wouldn't I want one device that does both assuming that Apple does it right?
I think it would be a huge success should Apple decide to build an iTalk that is a high quality phone, maintains everything we expect in an iPod, has decent battery life, and has the popular Apple style. I haven't had a decent cell phone in years. I find most of today's phones too small, lots of plastic and very lightweight. Count me in the camp that hopes they build one at some point.
World Wide Developer's Conference
It's where the Apple developers get together and talk development of Apple related products, and Apple gives them a sneak peak (a VERY LITTLE fuzzy peak) at their future plans.
"Money is truthful. If a man speaks of his honor, make him pay cash." Notebooks of Lazarus Long, Robert A. Heinlein
My phone plays music, and it's not even DRM protected:
:P
Dial:
6,5,4,5,6,6,6
5,5,5...6,6,6
6,5,4,5,6,6,6,6,5,5,6,5,4
(By the way, I am not responsible for any long distance or airtime charges you may incur)
welcome our speculation overlords!!
Got MILF? It does a body good!
"I felt a great disturbance in this pointless discussion, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced."
Hacker1: Something WAS in the iPod. The code leads off in this direction.
Hacker2: [holding up a print-out of a code] "Look, sir: iPhone!
Apple lawyer: Don't act so surprised, your highness. You weren't on any mercy mission this time. Several transmissions about iPhone were beamed to this site by Apple workers. I want to know what happened to the plans they sent you.
Internet Journalist: I don't know what you're talking about. I am a member of the Journalist Union on a diplomatic mission to Alderaan...
Apple lawyer: You are part of the Rebel Alliance and a traitor! Take her away!
and last, but not least:
Chief Engineer: It seems like you've managed to cut down our usage of thermal paste.
Engineer: Maybe you would like it back in your cell, your highness?
I work as a Director of Technology and I find it interesting that my Apple reps have been courting me so much these last few months. So much that they have not only given me a free pass to WWDC, but have invited me to sit in the VIP section at Jobs' keynote and to attend a special reception for IT professionals Monday evening.
Now, it may be that Apple always does this sort of thing to convince people like me to buy Macs. And we surely know that the Mac Pro will debut (as well as 10.5). But the full court press that I am getting suggests that this year's WWDC is as much about people like me as it is developers. Does this indicate anything about the content of Jobs' keynote? Probably not. But the treatment that I am receiving when I have almost nothing to do with development suggests that they are trying to garner as much interest as possible, and as much buy-in as possible.
A good product, along with good marketing and a little luck, will always do well in a saturated market. Look at the MacBooks... though I wouldn't buy one (a little overpriced and underpowered), for a college student who needs basic word processing and a shiny exterior it's a great product. It has sold despite it's high price point and the fear of not going with windows.
Imagine an iPhone, available in white and black, which is fully a touch screen device capable of multiple points of input at a time. No buttons except perhaps a scroll wheel on the side, and a switch for silent mode. Hold it in portrait and it's a phone, or an ipod, or a pda. Hold it in landscape and it's a widescreen video player or ebook reader (with a special grey contrast ratio to reduce eye strain). It has 40GB of storage with 8GB of ROM to preserve the battery. Heavy enough to feel sturdy in your hand, small enough to put in your pocket. Bluetooth, maybe WiFi....
I'd sure as hell buy one.
Here's a review for it. You can run whatever you want on it. You can write your own programs in C++, Java or probably other languages too. At least my unit has no stupid lockings. I can install whatever mp3 songs I want as ringtones or for listening. And there's even a third-party internet radio player that you can install.
It is mostly where Apple tries to educate developers about their latest programming APIs.
There are several technologies that Apple comes out with that depend on 3rd party support. For example, Spotlight works better when third parties make adopt its protocols to make data spotlight indexable/searchable. Dashboard is another example.
The main reasons people don't adopt these new APIs are: lack of education and need for backward compatibility.
WWDC also is a good place to give feedback to Apple about what they are doing right/wrong/could improve. Also, if you have specific issues you need resolved, it is a good place to go in order to speak with Apple employees.
For example, I had a specific issue in an application I was developing with OpenGL. I was able to arrange a meeting at WWDC to speak with the manager of the graphics group. I was able to show him my application and explain why we needed this particular issue addressed. All of the people from DTS (Developer Tech Support) who are used to dealing with 3rd party developers like to never make hard promises. However, this particular manager told me "this WILL be fixed in 10.3" and it was.
This year, I have a short list of issues that I want to speak with Apple about.
I can't say I've ever come away from WWDC with specific information about future hardware products, but I have come away with specific knowledge I need in order to guide my development roadmap.
Avoid Missing Ball for High Score
I was using my treo on the last flight without any problems. A flight attendant did ask if it was switched off, and I said the phone was off and she accepted that. Any phone that can clearly say "Flight Mode" or "Phone Off" will not be a problem.
And it's manufactured by SonyEricsson of all companies... More on that later though.
The iTunes phones will never gain critical mass acceptance as is because of the 100 song limit. That was Apple imposed as to not to interfere with iPod sales. One would have to believe that any iPhone that Apple (may) implement would have that in mind, that it would be not to interfere with its current Cash Cow, the iPod (and the Nano). So, if there would be an iPhone, I wouldn't see any Memory Card Interface and be limited to perhaps 512MB or 1GB of on-board memory, as a Shuffle replacement, with UI to match perhaps.
The Walkman Phone that I have (w800i) is surprisingly iPod like in its interface and its choice of Codecs (MP3, WAV, and AAC/MP4). When you press the Walkman Button, the playback screen, the UI, the entire experience is surprisingly iPod like, though changed in certain aspects. That with decent (just decent) information management, fast JAVA engine for Opera Mini action, and very clean interface makes the Walkman line of phones very credible competition for the iPhone.
Unfortunately, it has received zero marketing here in the US, and only one model's subsidized by any carrier (w600i by Cingular). So, it's very much an unknown quantity here in the US.
Which brings me to my final point. Unless Apple starts their own MVNO (and integrates with iTMS), or is willing to let Verizon with its VCAST and what not play nicely with their phones, it would likely be not picked up by any carriers for subsidy. And without that "Free" or "$99" price tag, I'm not sure if it'll be picked up by the public. After all, what's better than a Free RAZR?
My old and broken Nokia N-Gage for one. But then again...
[VODAK - Apply Directly to the Mouth!] [VODAK - Apply Directly to the Mouth!] [VODAK - Apply Directly to the Mouth!]
Cell phones are one of the worst designed consumer electronics out there. Of anything, I wish Apple would choose to do a phone next, providing they can make a little money on it.
There is no way in hell Apple is going to be able to make phones and be the maker of MP3 playing phones that has a higher market share than everyone else put together. They can license the iPod/iTunes names, and software to present an iPod experience, and even hardware, to all the other phone manufacturers and have that hold on the market. But there's no way they can make and sell a cellphone that would end up being the most popular cellphone in the US, let alone the rest of the world.
That comment is probably going to look pretty funny hanging up on the wall in about a year.
However, why would the phone alone need to surpass all other phone sales? It would not, it would simply have to continue to grow the space ITMS audio and video could be sold into. If the combination of standalone iPods plus iPod phones is still the lions share of MP3 players in the market, Apple has succeeded - even if the iPod phones are not the leader in that single segment of the market.
I do think though that an Apple phone with the right feature set could easily surpass even the RAZR for sheer popularity, primarily because Apple is really good at industrial design that marries with software really well. Computer integration is still not as good as it could be with any phone out there today, partly because phone service providers want you to buy things over the network instead of loading them from your computer.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
here is some semi physical evidence on you tube...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v520U3vS2iI
I contacted gizmodo, hopefully they will post it