Cashing in on Online Prediction Markets

garzpacho writes "BusinessWeek takes a look at the use of prediction markets to forecast business success. These markets have been taking the form of games online--the Hollywood Stock Exchange, for example, allows players to bet on the success of movies. Hollywood is currently one of the largest consumers of prediction market data, in part because movies' broad appeal leads to a large number of players, but also because the markets have been surprisingly accurate--92% in picking Oscar winners over the last three years. Because of this success, other industries are taking a look; pharmaceutical and tech storage businesses are currently working to set up their own markets."

Comments

I predict

[roman_mir]

I predict that this approach will cause the movies to get worse and worse.

I predict that Pirates of the Caribbean III will suck something awfull and this is a very good prediction judging from the Pirates of the Caribbean II, which sucked pretty bad.

I predict that movie directors who pay more attention to the story will create much better movies than those, who only care about money/visuals.