Cashing in on Online Prediction Markets

garzpacho writes "BusinessWeek takes a look at the use of prediction markets to forecast business success. These markets have been taking the form of games online--the Hollywood Stock Exchange, for example, allows players to bet on the success of movies. Hollywood is currently one of the largest consumers of prediction market data, in part because movies' broad appeal leads to a large number of players, but also because the markets have been surprisingly accurate--92% in picking Oscar winners over the last three years. Because of this success, other industries are taking a look; pharmaceutical and tech storage businesses are currently working to set up their own markets."

Comments

92% Oscar winner accuracy?

[enitime]

"...the markets have been surprisingly accurate--92% in picking Oscar winners over the last three years."

Only 92%? I'm sticking with The DaColbert Code.

Re:Apply this to CS

[El Torico]

I predict a flamewar breaking out as a result of the parent post.

Jennifer Connolly in "A Beautiful Mind"

[Anonymous Coward]

Plus everyone knows if you throw in a mentally challanged main character or uglify a hot actress you're 10 times more likely to win the Oscar.

Yeah, I was hopping mad when I saw how Ron Howard used CGI to digitally reduce Jennifer Connolly's bountiful bosoms in "A Perfect Mind". Anyone who saw her in "The Hot Spot" and "Career Opportunities" knows that something big was missing in Howard's film. Look, it was kinda neat how they removed Gary Senise's legs digitally in "Forest Gump" but removing the breasts of the most wonderfully stacked actress in Hollywood today was crossing the line in unnecessary CGI effects. I can't believe the Academy falls for such cheap tricks.

Re:No real money involved?

[Red Flayer]

Do someone know a "good or recommended" web site with similar concept where you can cash on your knowledge and instinct?

Yes, try this one. They don't explain it too well, but you're wagering on whether given companies will meet, surpass, or fail to meet others' expectations of how they'll perform. Sometimes you're even wagering on just how they'll perform, but normally you're wagering against how others think they'll perform -- that is, can you guess better than everyone else?