PS3 Predicted to Lead Market Through 2011

eldavojohn writes "The Yankee Group (a Boston Technology firm) recently announced that it predicts Sony's PS3 to lead the market with a 44% share through 2011. Most interesting is their prediction that the Wii will maintain only 16% of the market share. From the article: 'The analyst group believes Sony will lead in next-gen market share by 44% in 2011, with Xbox 360 taking a close 40% share, followed by Wii with a wee little bitty 16% share.'"

Comments

Contradicting themselves?

[rolfwind]

Also of note, the group believes fewer total consoles will be sold this next go-around due to higher console prices than were sold during the PS2, Xbox, and GameCube era. I thought the industry was suppose to grow? Either way, the Yankee Group also predicted constant Microsoft price undercutting. Next-Gen writes: "Microsoft is 'well-positioned' to cut the price of the Xbox 360 in spring 2007, potentially undercutting the $500-$600 PS3 by a wider margin. This pricing pressure from Microsoft is likely to continue throughout the course of the PS3's lifecycle, according to Yankee."

Um, high prices, yet PS3 will dominate? MS will undercut PS3? What about Wii?

Honestly, these numbers are suspect just due to lack of any real data points. The Wii is not the gamecube. The PS3 is not the PS2. And the Xbox360 does not equate to Xbox. The variable are different this time around.

Personally, the Wii is the first console I'm planning on buying since the Playstation 1, and it's the 1st one I am hoping to spend a decent amount playing since SNES (I only ended up owning 3-4 PS 1 games, got it more out of habit than actual want and dropped out of gaming since).

I think the Wii will wipe the floor with either. Graphics, at the level they are at, have ceased to be the most important factor to me, unlike 10 years back. Now it's all about fun.

This post probably will be only echoing a point a million others have already and will make, but isn't that evidence in itself?

A new law...

[MrTester]

From now on, all marketing firms are required to have a % of correctmarket predictions following their name on all articles.

i.e.

"The Yankee Group (10%) (a Boston Technology firm) recently announced that it predicts Sony's PS3 to lead the market with a 44% share through 2011. Most interesting is their prediction that the Wii will maintain only 16% of the market share. From the article: 'The analyst group believes Sony will lead in next-gen market share by 44% in 2011, with Xbox 360 taking a close 40% share, followed by Wii with a wee little bitty 16% share.'"

Those that do not comply will be publicly flogged and generally shunned.

Re:Doesn't sound right

[mausmalone]

Well, they were actually going by units sold.

Funny that they claimed that there would be a small up-turn in total consoles sold next-gen over current gen, but somehow the total they predict for all 3 consoles comes in under what the PS2 sold. In Japan alone.

Seriously, I doubt the Yankee Group's adding skills, much less their predicting skills.

Wrong conclusions, but maybe flawed metrics too?

[Maudib]

I think market share is a silly metric in some ways. Nintendo is the most profitable of all the game companies for the the last several years, despite market share. This is because they dont take a loss on hardware, have tons of highly profitable in house titles, and dont blow billions on marketing. Sony plans on loosing about $1 Billion dollars launching the PS3, and I think Microsoft lost more then that. Who cares about market share, isnt there end goal to turn a profit? Show me the breakdown on profits per system over the next 5 years please.

Just based on my own experience with a large number of gaming friends, the Wii will probably sell like crazy. The gamers I know fall into two groups (1) Plays tons of games for hours at a time (2) Casual gamers that just occassionally want to have fun.

My Group 1 friends own all systems. They have a PC, PSP, a DS Lite, a 360 and a PS2. Interestingly enough, the DS Lite gets the most play it seems (if you discount WOW on the PC that is).

Group 2 friends all universely have a PC, and an X-Box or a PS2 (not both), and most have a DS Lite. Withought exception they plan on getting a Wii, and remain uninterested in PS3 and Xbox 360.

When you consider the number of people who arent hardcore gamers, which system is going to be more popular? The system that appeals to only the hardcore, or the system with broadbased appeal? Maybe systems like the 360 and PS3 are destined to be niche devices for the hardcore gamer, and platforms with broadbased appeal will become more common? Unlikely, but certainly a strong argument against the skewed numbers in the article.

The turbulence makes it impossible to predict...

[7Prime]

Marketting survey's are so irrelivant right now. The Wii is just such a huge wildcard, it's virtually impossible to predict what's going to transpire in the first 3 months after console release, and even harder to predict what the market will be like after the first year. No other generation launch can top this one for pure strangeness and unexpected variables. Two consoles are slated to be launched within the same month, as well as a metric ton of best selling game series (Zelda, Metroid, Final Fantasy XII, among others)... this alone has never happened before. Probably the closest console launch I've seen to date was between the GameCube and the XBox which were, what, 6 months apart? The turbulance that will insue from such drastically apposing marketting models during that month will be the most interesting to watch since the dawn of the mass market video game, itself. Any number of unexpected situations may arise:

• Wii launch is a success, and then everyone takes the system home to find that the Wiimote is glitchy and uncomfortable for long-term use, sales plummit as launch purchasers warn their friends. The system is religated to using the GCN controller, and fizzles.
• Wii launch is a huge success, the Wiimote turns out to be even more fun then expected, and titles like Red Steal and Madden2007 begin to capture the attention of the "hardcore" and sports crowds, which flock away from the 360 and PS3, assuring the Wii's dominance in the next generation.
• Wii launch is average to low, but becomes an overnight hit with its audience, spurring a national movement along the lines of the iPod, virtually overnight, over the next 3 months, sales gradually increase to market dominance levels.
• The PS3 launches surprisingly strongly, although its innitial sales are only moderately successfull. After the first price drop, however, all the "price drop watchers" come running, and sales soar, putting Sony back on top of the console market.
• The launch of the PS3 and Wii marks the end of the last gen. People, unwilling to spend $600 on a console, and uneasy about the Wii's new control setup, finally put down their money on the 360, which saurs to the top of the charts.
• PS3 launches very well, and continues to do very well.

Now, I think it's unlikely that the PS3 is going to see groundbreaking success (which is really what it needs to combat a fully functioning Microsoft and a groundbreaking Nintendo), I do think that Sony's chances of doing well in this generation are pretty slim, but you never know. And as I said, the turmoil caused by the first few months of two consoles being released virtually similtaniously is going to be hard to predict.