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Why the iPod is Losing its Cool
An anonymous reader writes "The Guardian Unlimited has a provocative article on the recent decline in iPod sales: 'Analysts warn that the iPod has passed its peak. From its launch five years ago its sales graph showed a consistent upward curve, culminating in a period around last Christmas that saw a record 14 million sold. But sales fell to 8.5 million in the following quarter, and down to 8.1 million in the most recent three-month period. Wall Street is reportedly starting to worry that the bubble will burst.'"
Religion for nerds. Stuff that really matters
Q4 03: 336,000
Q1 04: 733,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 04: 807,000
Q3 04: 860,000
Q4 04: 2,016,000
Q1 05: 4,580,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 05: 5,311,000
Q3 05: 6,155,000
Q4 05: 6,451,000
Q1 06: 14,043,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 06: 8,526,000
Q3 06: 8,111,000
We have yet to see a year-over-year decline in sales. It is of course to be expected, that pundits seeking attention will continue to troll with "the sky is falling" articles, just like we'll keep hearing about how every also-ran is an "iPod killer".
-jcr
The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
When it comes to "Coolness Factor" I think it's safe to say that the Microsoft Zune is pretty much dead on arrival.
Q4 03: 336,000
Q1 04: 733,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 04: 807,000
Q3 04: 860,000
Q4 04: 2,016,000
Q1 05: 4,580,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 05: 5,311,000
Q3 05: 6,155,000
Q4 05: 6,451,000
Q1 06: 14,043,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 06: 8,526,000
Q3 06: 8,111,000
I'm sure the Apple faithful (*) will violently disagree, but the parent's use of the word "fad" is not poorly chosen. Recently local MBA students (**) in a marketing class surveyed hundreds of kids in local high schools regard digital music players. Stress "digital music players", they did not ask about iPod, they did not lead the respondents(***). The kids were pretty well informed, there was a lot of comparing and contrasting of various players at school. iPods were the most popular device, no surprise there, but there was a surprise. The most popular reason for choosing the iPod over competitors was fashion, a status symbol. It was not ease of use, although ease of use was identified as a category iPod wins in. For technology and features Creative was the winner, the lack of radio was a negative for the iPod.
The team that did the survey and focus groups was very quick to point out that this was just a class project, small scale and localized. However it was similar to a pilot program that found interesting results and could be used to justify a larger national study.
(*) I own an iPod, I love it, I would buy another. I own PCs and Macs and use iTunes on both platforms. However I am not religious about music players or operating systems.
(**) Working professionals who have real jobs in industry, under the supervision of a marketing professor who does this sort of thing for rather large firms. This was a class project, not a consulting project.
(***) I was not involved in the project but did I sit in on the presentation of the results. My recollection is that the questions went something like:
Do you own a digital music player?
What models did you consider?
What model did you purchase?
Why did you purchase that model?
etc.
... is a complete and utter waste of bandwidth. "Sales are declining at an unprecedented rate."
Bullsh1t. Look at all of iPod's quarterly sales:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPod#Sales
Take out the massive spike for fiscal '06 Q1 and you have a very healthy, ordinary looking sales curve. Are we to think that Apple is in full-blown panic mode just because they aren't moving 10 million units a month? I find that very hard to believe.
sig has been sent away for a few small repairs...
You need a special client to load it and it only loads AAC.
No, it will load AAC, MP3, AIFF, WAV and Apple Lossless files.
-jcr
The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
'The iPod is far and away the most popular tech gadget with our panellists - however, for the first time we are hearing negative feedback about the iPod from some panellists,' said the organisation's spokeswoman, Carla Avruch. 'Panellists cite that the batteries are not replaceable, so when they die the entire player must be replaced,' she said. 'We have heard from some conspiracy theorists that the batteries are made to die soon after the warranty ends.
I can't believe this is rearing its head again.
1. The batteries are replaceable, both by Apple and numerous third parties for as little as $25. Apple's replacement is $60. Yes, Apple's replacement is not self-service, but the cost of an OEM battery, even if it was "user-replaceable" (which it actually still is) could still be in that ballpark, as evidenced by OEM battery prices compared to high-quality third party replacements on nearly EVERY DEVICE UNDER THE SUN that uses lithium ion batteries.
2. The batteries are made by leading battery OEMs. How on earth could they be "designed" to last only until the warranty runs out? I know they acknowledge it as a conspiracy theory, but *come on*.
Not to mention how many other devices in the iPod's class also have had batteries sealed in the enclosure. The difference with the iPod, as compared to some of the other products, is that you actually CAN get the battery replaced, direct from Apple, not to mention from any of many, many third party reputable vendors.
Some of the third parties even do the replacement for you overnight, some with higher capacity batteries than the OEM equipment, and for cheaper than Apple's own official replacement.
This battery crap has been so thoroughly debunked it's unbelievable. I have answered nearly every question I can think of about iPod batteries here:
http://ipodbatteryfaq.com/index-noads.html
Please note that this is my site, and the main index page DOES feature Google ads. The above link DOES NOT contain ads. I have nothing to do with Apple and have never worked for Apple, nor do I sell iPods, anything iPod related, or anything having to do with batteries. I do not receive money or products from anyone related to Apple or any iPod accessory maker. The only ads on the site (which are NOT on the above URL) are via Google. If you find anything inaccurate in that FAQ, which has stood for almost 4 years, please let me know as soon as possible. In fact, I challenge someone to find something inaccurate about the FAQ.
(If you think you're going to say some witty remark about bad PR forcing Apple's hand, or iPod's Dirty Secret, or some other tripe, please read the FAQ first.)
In sum:
The batteries in ALL models of iPod are replaceable, both by Apple, or via several third parties for as little as $25. Third parties offer do-it-yourself kits, and some will also do the replacement for you. The warranty on the iPod is one year, it DOES cover the batteries, and can be extended to two years for $60. Many first generation iPods are still in use with their original batteries. ALL lithium ion batteries have a finite lifetime. The case isn't sealed for "planned obsolescence" or failure; it's because any mechanisms to allow acceptable user-access to batteries would significantly increase the size of the case. Yes, significantly. Even if it's a millimeter, that can be a killer for a device whose thickness is *measured* in millimeters. No, it can't just use screws and doors: the decision was made such that the device would have the sleek design and appearance that makes it so attractive in the first place. And even if you believe that it still was a conspiracy to get people to buy new iPods when the batteries wore out, even if that were the case, the batteries are replaceable via numerous channels, including Apple itself, for anywhere from $25 to $60. They don't last any shorter or longer than any other high-quality lithium ion batteries out there.
I can't *believe* t
Jobs could be introducing a new generation iPod. We won't know for sure until he says "One more thing."
He knows you are only good as what you have in the pipeline.
photosMy Photostream
You missed the point, again. iTunes, by default is set to import CDs to AAC (I forget which bit rate). Changing to mp3 requires the user to go into the scary "Advanced > Importing" tab in the preference pane. MANY people, if not most, don't even notice that their ripping to AAC instead of MP3, since they use the "import" button on their CDs instead of choosing the "Convert Selection to [whatever]" option. The point is, to switch to mp3s you have to:
Only a very small segment of the population are going to go "out of their way" (even if it's a fairly small trip) to switch, and most don't even know it. By the time many people do realize that they're encoding AACs, they've been already working out fine for them on the iPod, so they have no real desire to switch. On top of that, when they DO get interested in learning the difference, they have the entire internet, as well as Apple Computer saying, "AACs are better than MP3s" (which they are).
So no, I would be willing to guess that a good 75% of ALL CD imported tunes on digital music players are AACs. The MP3 is dead, most people don't even know it.
Multiplayer Gaming (defined): Sitting around, discussing single-player games with my friends, at the bar.
All you have to do is compare the year-over-year numbers. Q3 may be low every year, but the numbers get larger year-over-year. The guys at the Guardian obviously understand NOTHING about market and fiscal trends.
iPod unit sales:
----- 2004
Q4 03: 336,000
Q1 04: 733,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 04: 807,000
Q3 04: 860,000
Q4 04: 2,016,000
----- 2005
Q1 05: 4,580,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 05: 5,311,000
Q3 05: 6,155,000
Q4 05: 6,451,000
----- 2006
Q1 06: 14,043,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 06: 8,526,000
Q3 06: 8,111,000
Those who laugh at you for you having a Mac.. are the people who constantly call you to fix their PC.
You need a special client to load it and it only loads AAC.
In your overbearing zeal you either don't know what you are talking about or you are lying. In addition to AAC files from iTMS you also have the choices of mp3, AIFF, and Apple lossless. That is just the audio music formats. You also have video and spoken audio (audio books) as choices. In your excitement to declare the king is dead you should be more careful about your accuracy or face being dismissed as an untrustworthy voice motivated more by spite than knowledge.
I think a more accurate measure would be sales with Christmas excluded, or quarter to same last year. Unfortunately, the article doesn't provide that, either. A little disappointing for The Guardian.
The article did use a very useful metric: "Tomi Ahonen, a technology brand expert and author, said: 'For the first time the iPod has had two consecutive falls after 17 quarters of growth." And it does answer your question, in the same quarter last year it had experienced some growth rather than two downward quarters.