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Why the iPod is Losing its Cool
An anonymous reader writes "The Guardian Unlimited has a provocative article on the recent decline in iPod sales: 'Analysts warn that the iPod has passed its peak. From its launch five years ago its sales graph showed a consistent upward curve, culminating in a period around last Christmas that saw a record 14 million sold. But sales fell to 8.5 million in the following quarter, and down to 8.1 million in the most recent three-month period. Wall Street is reportedly starting to worry that the bubble will burst.'"
From the article:
There doesn't seem so much of a crack in any edifice as much as there's ultimately a saturation of the marketplace. At some point, pretty much everyone who wants an iPod gets one, and by now that's pretty much done (anyone hear any recent "I want an iPod" whines from anyone?).
Jobs (from Apple) isn't letting the grass grow ... with his
As seen in a previous slashdot discussion (the Amazon Unbox article) on video download, it isn't going to happen, or is at least unlikely. There is a slew of articles and surveys showing consumers, especially the target demographic of "younger folk" aren't that interested in long (full length features) videos. Video downloads, management, etc., is just a messier beast for consumers, enough so it's a long way from emergent (storage considerations, price, quality of small devices, battery power for video, DRM, download times, backups, etc.).
Also, consumers are getting hip to the snake oil that is iTunes: (from the article)
Yeah, initially all were in love with the iPod because for the return on effort, it seemed like magic. Consumers eventually get tired of jumping through even the tiniest of hoops to continue "enjoying" their gadgets. They want to turn it on, and not have to worry that the computer from which they're trying to transfer music is "iTunes anointed" or not. DRM-fatigue, finally, sets in (it's about time!).
This is the SONY walkman all over again, then the SONY CD walkman... it's done. It's hard to imagine quantum leaps of coolness and convenience beyond an iPod or video iPod. The curve had to level, there just isn't any there there. Apple should be happy with what they've done, but I don't think this is a growth niche any longer.
Well we are speaking the inevitable here. No fad ever lasts forever.
loses its cool, yo.
It's a fact. In full effect.
Represent. 50 cent is an uninsured motorist. And a rapper nowhere near as phat as tha iceman.
The iPod always sucked. It was never the best MP3 player, it was simply the most popular and a sought after fashion accessory, and now that people are starting to realise it, they're going to go for alternatives like Creative, which is far superior and cheaper.
Seems kinda obvious to me... we're running out of people who want one and don't have one already.
-- I prefer the term "karma escort."
it's basic business. product lifecycles are virtually all the same. launch, rise, saturation and decline. right now ipod reaching saturation, and it will go into decline sooner or later. that said, it is still very profitable for Apple, and the brand is still stupidly strong. it will most likely stay like that for a few more years at least.
this is news?
.. you don't need to have another one, unless the first one breaks. Its like TV's. You go out, buy a TV. For most people the next time they buy a TV is when their TV breaks. My TV's have lasted about 10+ years. I'd imagine that the iPod should last at least 3 years.
Only 'flamers' flame!
Does slashdot hate my posts?
Market not infinite. Film at 11.
We had cassette walkmans popular. No more.
We had CD players popular. No more
We had mp3 players popular. No more
We have iPods popular. After some time, we will not.
That's how hardware, software and all the computing works. After some time we will be laughing at those iPods, because we will have something new.
I think everyone knows that consumer electronics sell better around Christmas. Comparing holiday season sales to summer sales is like comparing apples to oranges...
Religion for nerds. Stuff that really matters
The majority of iPod users use MP3s, which aren't affected by DRM. And DRM isn't anything at all new to iPod, either. There's no reason to assume the correlation that you take as a given. Any random anti-DRM screed is sure to get modded +5 on Slashdot, but you should put in the extra work and have it at least make some kind of sense.
And it isn't a scientific survey, but every person I know who's technologically savvy enough to be downloading MP3s is also downloadings .avi's. Here in China MP4 compliance is a big selling point for cell phones, PDAs, and other random gadgets. I gotta believe it's the same in the US. Amazon may not be impressing people, but that has more to do with the price than the fundamental concept.
Slashdot: providing anti-social weirdos a soapbox, since 1997.
The iPod is not uncool or unhip... the fad isn't over.
Look around, iPods are everywhere and everyone is happy.
If sales are declining it's just because we all already have one.
I personally have a 4th gen 20GB click-wheel iPod. The color screens, video, photos, nano sizes, &c. haven't been enough to make me set aside the iPod I have to get a new one for another few hundred dollars. My iPod works how I expect it to and I'm happy. I won't be upgrading probably until this iPod is either stolen or broken, which I hope won't even ever happen.
If Apple wants to make people buy a SECOND iPod even though their current iPod works fine, they're going to have to add some compelling new features. I'd buy an iPod phone probably. Not so much because I want my phone and MP3 player in one device (but it would be nice if done properly: one less thing to carry around), but my current Motorola phone is horrible and I have some confidence that Apple would actually make a great phone with a good user interface. Every user interface on every cell phone out there right now is pretty much horrible; Apple could do a lot in this area.
I might get some sort of cool iPod car stereo. (Currently, I connect my iPod using the headphone jack to the Aux. in on the back of my Sony car stereo using a cable I got from Radio Shack... I'm talking about a REAL iPod car stereo, like a car stereo with a hard drive and wireless so I can send songs to my car in the garage from my computer in the house.) Supposedly there may be a touch-screen iPod coming? A touch-screen alone won't get me to buy another.
But yeah, iPods are still cool. There is no backlash. All the other MP3 players still are lacking in one way or another. iTunes is still a great way to manage music on the computer. People are happy. Apple has done great.
I think the last time any of the iPod models were updated was last fall. Sales will likely pick up again when there's a new and exciting iPod.
"I saw a woman wearing a sweatshirt with Guess on it. I said, thyroid problem?" - Arnold Schwarzenegger
Actually, your post makes a point indirectly. Taco's comment was flat-out stupid in retrospect. And remember everyone's doom-and-gloom predictions here on Slashdot about the iPod mini?
Perhaps people should reconsider calling the iPod down for the count every six months. It's making them look idiotic. The iPod has never had a year-over-year quarter that went down in sales. Rumors are that Apple waited so long to update their iPod line this year because they've been in negotiations with major studios.
"Sufferin' succotash."
this is really a crappy article.
14 million were sold in the crazy-buy-gifts-like-there-is-no-tomorow quarter. If you want to check trends you should look at corrosponding quarters , year over year growth.
guess what? 25% gains year over year... expect apple to sell around 20 million Ipods in the the corrosponding quarter.
In my opinion, portable video will never be really as successful as portable music.
Music, unlike video, requires only one sense (hearing) and can be passive while one is doing other things.
You can listen to music while you browse the web, jog, write code.
You can't really watch a video using a portable device while doing those things. (other than porn...)
It can work though for people who travel a lot in public transportation.
That niche is partly filled by portable gaming which is also an activity that requires your attention.
^_^
Here are my ideas why sales are slowing.
.ogg (which I use for audiobooks) and a single AAA battery lasts 30+ hours. Many other 'new' MP3 players have built-in FM-tuners, FM-transmitters, etc. that are costly additions to an ipod.
1) battery life - Enough people have been 'burned' by the poor preformance of the built-in battery. (My wife's 40Gb player only lasts 30 minutes before the battery is dead) That don't think that $100-$300 every couple of years is worth it.
2) market saturation - How many people who would like to have a portable music player, haven't heard of an ipod?
3) price/format/additional features - I recently bought an iRiver T30 (1GB) It can play
4) no real reason to upgrade. The writing is on the wall for that popularity of hand-held video players, the video ipod is close, but the format (screen size/dimensions) of the PSP are damn near perfect. The first company to make an non-crippled divx/xvid/mpeg4/mp3 player will do good.
"The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men." ~Plato (427-347 BC)
... the last iPod Update was October 12, 2005 according to http://buyersguide.macrumors.com/ and everyone is waiting for the new one?
Must everything be a bubble now?
The stock market was a bubble because everyone that bought stock inflated the price of stock for everyone else, making it look like a better growth opportunity for investment. The housing market was a bubble because everyone that bought houses inflated the prices of housing and the resultant appearance of investment opportunity similarly. And when both of which become too big, the bubble burst as there was nothing quite supporting the inflated prices and value plummetted.
The iPod does not exhibit bubble-like qualities. The iPod is a thing. Someone buying an iPod does not inflate the price for everyone else. As a thing with utility, the iPod cannot instantly decline in usefulness like a stock can.
The bubble is a useful analogy in certain investment situations. But let's not go pretexting it into conversation inappropriately.
The ______ Agenda
People get mp3 players too be uniqute??? Hmmm. I thought people got MP3 players to play MP3. And to be honest, I haven't found an MP3 player that is as easy to setup and use, with the same kind of capacity as the iPod yet. The Zen tries, but ultimately fails for me. Besides, I like iTunes. But, it all comes down to personal preference. 60 million users like iPods. Fewer than that like the others.
A product shows consistent quarter over quarter growth for five straight years.
Oh, for Pete's sake. You're not seeing the forest for the trees. Look at the YEAR over YEAR growth. I have, and I'm keeping my AAPL shares.
Wake the fuck up dummy.
I'm wide awake, which you clearly aren't.
-jcr
The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
I doubt Wall Street is worried about summer sales being lower than Christmas sales...
You are so wrong. Apple's stock price is all about iPod. For years their stock has been fairly flat as new computers are introduced, Macs that are the best machines they ever offered. However iPod news, or even rumors, can cause huge movements. The business press even often describes Apple as the maker of iPod and Macintosh computers, Mac ironically getting second billing. iPod brought Apple stock to the $30s and well beyond, and a lot of that is speculation about continued growth in the portable digital music/video player market. If there is any hint that Apple has lost it's technological or mindshare lead then Apple stock will dive. Keep in mind that stock price is not about the health of a company, it is speculation on the future growth of a company. Those are two very different things. Apple can be healthy, profitable, and selling more Mac and iPods than every before *and* their stock could dive. If iPod ever gets a viable competitor I expect Apple stock will go back below $30.
The mainstream public absolutely doesn't give a crap about iTunes DRM. It's so lax that you never notice it's there (and when people bring up iTunes DRM as a negative point, in almost every case you find that they've never tried it themselves). Most people's music collections are made up of ripped MP3s anyway.
As for the other two points, market saturation and growing competition have been around since the iPod came out in 2001, so that's nothing new. The market was saturated when Apple came to the game, yet they still won (pissing Creative off something awful). It seems the company performs its best when people are assuming they're down for the count. For the last 20 years, armchair pundits have been claiming Apple was dead, their products weren't selling, that "saturation and growing competition" were going to take them out, and so on.
I don't get this pervasive need to always hope for Apple's demise all the time. Without them, it'd be all Microsoft, all the time, with the awful WMA-based "PlaysForSure" dominating your music players and turning them into the typical Microsoft experience--unreliable, weird bugs and quirks, a hundred ugly little pieces of hardware running Microsoft software with no seamless vertical experience like you get from Apple.
Look, new automobiles have freakin' iPod dock ports built into them. The iPod isn't going away anytime soon.
I assume you mean you want it built-in, because the iPod has had built-in recording functionality for years now, accessible with add-ons like the Griffin iTalk.
"Sufferin' succotash."
Do you have some kind of point you're trying to make? You claimed that the iPod is "overpriced", I debunked that claim, and now it looks like you're trying to argue against something I haven't said.
Apple has generally kept the price points steady, while expanding the iPod's capacity and capabilities over time. They've also introduced lower-cost versions of the product, going as low as $99. Because they're not going for the lowest possible cost, they're able to make it a far better-quality product than they could if they went for a Dell-style "race to the bottom" approach.
There is a science to pricing a product, and Apple's success with the iPod line shows that they're practicing it very well, indeed.
-jcr
The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
But when you're buing the unprotected CDs, you are eligible to transfer the contents to your own hard disk or what ever, IF THERE IS NO COPY PROTECTION. And regular CDs do not have such protection these days. And I am guessing you are not buying any protected CDs. So you are not acting like a criminal, until you actually distribute the ripped MP3s.
So you can burn and rip all you want, RIAA will not care. Just don't share.
'Phones are outselling dedicated MP3 players by six to one. Apple had the market for MP3, but they lost it.'
Before anyone takes this article too seriously, it's worth examining the credentials of the "expert" quoted in the article. Tomi Ahonen is a self-declared "technology strategy consultant", whose primary field of consultancy is wireless and mobile telecoms. Last year he predicted that mobile games consoles would also be crushed by mobile phone usage. The weak PSP represented an easy target, I'm not so sure that the iPod is as passé as he would have us believe.
If anyone has any doubt regarding Tomi's views, look no further than his blog. Clearly he has a vested interest in seeing the iPod fail, so take his opinions with large doses of salt.
My point is if the downward trend in sales continues, the easiest way to ramp up sales is to lower prices, which is likely at some point.
Yeah man, it was so hard for me to plug my ipod into the usb slot on my mac and then sit there while itunes automatically opened and started configuring my ipod for me. I don't know what I would have done if I had to, I don't know, go on the internet, find and advocate an itunes replacement, download it, install it, and hope it runs on my ipod and picks up the 160 gigs of apple lossless music I have. I probably would have not even bought the thing, right?
Suck a lemon?
I agree. People don't buy music to listen to it. They buy music so that they can do something else and not get so bored doing it.
Doesn't it make you feel good to know that our freedoms are protected by politicans, lawyers and journalists.
ipod battery
replace ipod battery
ipod battery problem
...or anything similar, and it's the number one hit (and dozens of other sites that sell and service iPods and batteries follow).
To say nothing of the fact that Apple's own iPod battery replacement programs are thoroughly documented on its own pages, and can be found out about instantly by calling Apple, visiting any Apple store or service provider, or asking anyone who knows remotely anything about iPods.
So, nice try, but it's not an "obscure faq", and it's utterly ridiculously simple to find out how to replace a battery in an iPod. Your cell phone and digital camera likely don't use AA batteries, and yet, miraculously, people can figure out where to buy those. It's really no different with an iPod. And if you're honestly telling me that people should correctly assume that they must throw their iPod away simply because it doesn't have an obvious battery door, without doing ANYTHING to determine whether the battery is replaceable, well, I find that "unbelivable" (sic).
In my opinion, portable video will never be really as successful as portable music.
I think you're right, and I think Apple knows this, which is probably why each new Mac Mini (now with Front Row, a remote control and TV output) has been inching closer and closer to the TV set. I suspect people will download videos via iTunes just so they can watch them on TV almost instantly, without the fuss of having to leave the house, probably ignoring whether they can watch them on their iPod or not.
to the scam that is iTunes
This perpetual motion machine Lisa made is a joke, it just keeps getting faster and faster. - Homer
It is interesting to me that so many Slashdot readers are taking it as a given that the analysts are correct on this one, even though the latter(and many Slashdot readers as well) have been wrong about the iPod pretty much every step of the way, and have a long history of not really grokking Apple. I agree that Apple needs to do something new, either by coming out with a completely new product that leapfrogs ahead of the iPod, or by some other means.
But the problem with forecasts like this is that they never take into account human creativity. The default assumption is that the engineers and designers at Apple (or any other company they examine) can't possibly come up with anything to supplant the currently successful product. Given Apple's track record since the return of Jobs, I'm willing to bet that the company's best days are not behind it.
The Halo Effect of iPod sales is very real. Macs, particularly laptops, have made an impressive comeback. You can bet they'll do more with the Intel-powered Macs than they're letting on now. The iTMS has been a huge success, and Apple can use that to springboard into a variety of media distribution plans, depending on where they want to take it. My guess is that when Apple introduces the new video service, there will be more to it than most pundits have predicted.
Particularly, I see Apple finally bringing consumers a truly easy way to snag video content via the Internet and play it back on a variety of devices easily. Integration isn't just about bringing technology to bear on a problem; it's also about making the technology easy enough for John Q. Public to use. With the success of the iPod, the buying public looks to Apple for easy to use media playback devices.
My predictions are, of course, not any more valuable than those from Wall Street. However, I am continually struck by the limited the range of vision of the Wall Street analysts, and by how frequently people actually listen to them.
Read the EFF's Fair Use FAQ
"What is Internet Explorer 7? Are you saying we can't access the normal internet?" - I love tech support. Really.
"Other complaints are that iTunes [Apple's online music store] is overpriced"
i th+consumers/2100-1026_3-6113998.html?tag=nefd.top
Overpriced compared to what? Free pirated music? All of the music stores that sell non-Indie music is seling for 99c accept for Walmart and Walmart is behind ITunes, Rhapsody, and Napster.
"In our ethnography interviews, some long-time iPod-users told us that they have stopped updating their iPods because it's too much work"
Using both Macs and Windows XP you just plug it in. Why couldn't they give a specific percentage of people?
" while other consumers who had bought iPods more recently had not even taken theirs out of the package to set it up.'"
Again no real numbers
"Analysts warn that the iPod has passed its peak. From its launch five years ago its sales graph showed a consistent upward curve, culminating in a period around last Christmas that saw a record 14 million sold."
During the fourth calendar quarter sells of consumer items peak --- news at 11. That's why economist compare on a "seasonally adjusted basis".
"He cited new mobile phones with improved MP3 players as the cause of the iPod's dwindling appeal"
http://news.com.com/Mobile+content+not+clicking+w
10% -- users who buy ringtones for mobile phones
0.4% -- users who paid for video
28% -- 15 million subscribers downloaded some type of content
So who are all of these people buying music from their cellphone?
I have a Samsung a900 that plays MP3 and AAC formatted music as well as Sprint's music store music. I can transfer music from my Mac using either Bluetooth or the included usb cable. The interface is decent but music drains the battery life. On top of that I have only 80MB to store music on. Even on Sprint's other phones that do accept a MicroSD card you can only get up to 2GB. I'll keep my Nano.
Rating this post a 5: Informative just proves the moderation system here is still broken. You have decided you don't like the iPod and have built a huge pile of reasoning behind it, but you clearly don't speak for the majority.
;-)
Thank you for making my prediction come true: "I'm sure the Apple faithful will violently disagree"
Did you following confuse you: "I own an iPod, I love it, I would buy another. I own PCs and Macs and use iTunes on both platforms. However I am not religious about music players or operating systems."?
Suprised this wasn't modded "funny".. and if it is true, it really speaks to the craptacity of most music for sale if it's purchased (or otherwise obtained) by consumers who aren't even interested in listening to it as much as using it to provide background noise.