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Billions of Planets In Milky Way?

jeffsenter writes, "The Washington Post has the story: 'NASA scientists using the Hubble Space Telescope have discovered what they believe are 16 new planets deep in the Milky Way, leading them to conclude there are probably billions of planets spread throughout the galaxy.' What sets these potential planets apart is they are in the central bulge of the Milky Way where most stars are located. More planets in the galaxy means more chances for life." The 16 are planet candidates at this point, until verified by spectroscopic measurement of their parent stars' wobbles, which probably can't be done until the James Webb Space Telescope files in 2013.

23 of 238 comments (clear)

  1. Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Harbouring what form of life exactly.

    Common sense suggests that there are billions of planets in the galaxy, and that millions of them could harbour life, and that thousands of them have significant evolved life and a few have intelligent (tool using or above) life. That's just playing with numbers and likelihoods and the belief that we're not a one off.

    But this just shows that there are lots of large gas giants. Maybe there's life on their moons...

    1. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by exp(pi*sqrt(163)) · · Score: 3, Insightful
      How do you deduce, using common sense, that one in a thousand planets could harbor life?

      How do you deduce, using common sense, that one in a thousand planets that harbor life have 'significant life'? (Whatever that is.)

      How do you deduce, using common sense, that a few in a thousand planets with 'significant life' have 'intelligent' life?

      That's just playing with numbers and likelihoods
      Oh, right. You just made up some random stuff and then claimed it was suggested by common sense.
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    2. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by Squiffy · · Score: 4, Informative

      Despite the fact that many people call the sun a "yellow dwarf" or an "average star", it's actually in the top 10%, by brightness. That also probably puts it in the top 10% by mass, radius, etc. Find the Gliese 3.0 catalog if you don't believe me.

    3. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by gstoddart · · Score: 4, Funny
      Despite the fact that many people call the sun a "yellow dwarf" or an "average star", it's actually in the top 10%, by brightness.

      Of course it's brighter, it's closer to us.

      (Note for the humour impaired, this is a joke)
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    4. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by dgatwood · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Assuming we don't kill ourselves before our sun fails catastrophically:

      • The viable lifespan of our sun: 9.2 billion years (main sequence)
      • The period during which Earth has had life: 3.8bn + 4.6bn = 8.4 billion years
      • Period of human existence: 2 million + 4.6bn ~= 4.6 billion years
      • Probability of intelligent life: ~50%

      What remains to be determined are:

      • Number of stars with rocky planets.
      • Average number of rocky planets per star with rocky planets.
      • Percentage of rocky planets within band where life is expected (currently speculated to be 0.958 AU +/- 0.023 AU out of about 40 AU to Pluto, so about 1/869.565217)
      • Number of rocky planets in this band with the proper chemical makeup for life to begin (presumed to be nearly all of them, but...)

      So from this, a good guess might be 1/1700 of the rocky planets out there are habitable. If our solar system is typical, we have 5 rocky planets, so there would be a (1 - (1699/1700)*(1699/1700)*(1699/1700)*(1699/1700)*(1 699/1700)) or chance of our solar system evolving any life at all, or about 0.29%. Multiply times the odds of a habitable planet having intelligent life at any given time (about 1/2), and we have about a 0.145% chance (only a little better than 1/1000) of finding intelligent life in a solar system with rocky planets.

      Nowhere near the 1 in a million long shot speculated, but this assumes that Earth is typical, which is not necessarily a valid assumption.

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    5. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by exp(pi*sqrt(163)) · · Score: 4, Funny

      Your logic is a little flawed. Britney Spears appeared on earth after 4.6 billion years of evolution around a star with a lifetime of 9.2 billion years. Therefore, by your logic, 50% of rocky worlds have, or have had, Britney Spears evolve on them.

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  2. ISR by Daemonstar · · Score: 4, Funny

    In Soviet Russia, space telescope looks at YOU!

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  3. well if they won't do it... by Wizzerd911 · · Score: 3, Funny

    I think the best way to contact aliens and let them know we are here is to build a giant billboard about 10x bigger than the sun that says "Hey aliens, people live here" and park it right outside out solar system. That way when they're looking at us with their giant telescopes, they'd see it and know. I'm sure we could get pepsi to sponsor that billboard, they sponsor anything. As for us seeing other intelligent life, just watch for planets to spontaniously blow themselves up. I'm sure we'll almost do that a few times in the future looking at the past so logically some aliens have to do it.

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  4. Working on it! by ThankfulJosh · · Score: 5, Informative

    I work for the Shuttle program. The current plan is to send up a Hubble repair mission. Can't say when, but it's definitely planned.

    1. Re:Working on it! by OakDragon · · Score: 3, Funny
      I work for the Shuttle program.

      Hey, can you snag me some of those NASA ash trays? Sweet!

    2. Re:Working on it! by OrangeTide · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I would hope that repairing the existing telescope would be cheaper than putting up a new one. And ideally I think we all would like multiple Hubble-class telescopes going at once. I wish there was some way to save the Hubble, maybe put it in a museum or something. So little space history has been preserved because it is not economical to do so.

      If we save the hubble, maybe 100 years from now they will have coated it with diamond-polymer and put it on the playground at the city museum for the kids to climb on.

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  5. 16 -- billions by GungaDan · · Score: 5, Funny

    Fuck my accountant. I'm getting an astronomer.

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    1. Re:16 -- billions by ecklesweb · · Score: 4, Funny

      Astronomers can be creative, accountants can't.

      Ever hear of Enron?

    2. Re:16 -- billions by iamlucky13 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Nice. But getting past the joke for anyone who may be confused:

      If you observe a field of 100 stars and find that 16 of them have planets, then it is not unreasonable to speculate on the extension that 16% or so of all stars have planets. Thus from a galaxy with 200 billion stars, billions of them may have planets.

      Furthermore, none of this precludes the possibility that more stars may have planets than don't.

      Unfortunately, however, Worldcom didn't really have more cash than their independent auditors found, but that's another story.

  6. Billions of peanuts in Milky Way?? by davidwr · · Score: 3, Funny

    Oh wait, that's the 1-AU-wide super-sized Snickers bar.

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  7. They're telling us this now? by Rhyth · · Score: 4, Funny
    16 new planets deep in the Milky Way, leading them to conclude there are probably billions of planets spread throughout the galaxy
    Could this not have been inferred by the fact there are seven others in plain sight?
    1. Re:They're telling us this now? by inviolet · · Score: 4, Funny
      Mercury does not even have an independend rotation and thus might just be considered a moon of the sun . . .

      That's no moon.

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  8. Re:Good ol' hubble by AsmCoder8088 · · Score: 5, Interesting
    There are some advantages to ground-based scopes versus ones such as the Hubble. For instance, you can get a great deal more sensitivity on the ground than in space simply due to the fact that the aperture of the primary mirror can be made much larger for a ground scope than a space scope. The reason behind this is cost - it is far more expensive to put a large mirror in space than on the ground. However, since it is in space, the smaller mirror does have better resolution. So it is simply a trade-off between sensitivity and resolution. With greater sensitivity, you can pull in fainter objects, but with better resolution, you can differentiate more easily between distance objects.

    This is a great example of a ground-based telescope that could easily rival any space telescope:

    OWL Telescope

  9. ... spread out over Billions of Years! by redelm · · Score: 5, Insightful
    The problem with multi-species science fiction is that it assumes contemporaneous (nearly synchronous!) technological development. Yet development is entirely an artifact without obvious time-based causes. And seems to proceed very swiftly on the geologic time scale.

    SETI's odds are very poor on this score.

    1. Re:... spread out over Billions of Years! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There's a theory that no lifeform will evolve to become significantly more intelligent or technologically advanced than humans, because at the level of intelligence we've reached an increase doesn't offer us an evolutionary advantage. We're already able to survive and breed, and indeed dominate the planet. And as a society gets more advanced in terms of technology, its members require less and less intelligence to survive and breed. This will eventually lead to a slow decay in intelligence which slows or stops the technological advance as well. The species will ultimately end up in some kind of a permanent, static equilibrium state if it survives long enough. We may be just a couple of centuries away from this ourselves.

  10. Re:life?? by jeffsenter · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Yeah I used the life angle to get it posted, but there is a little bit of substance to this increased chance of life thinking. Even though the central bulge is not the best place to find life, finding plenty of planets in the central bulge, where large scale planet formation was somewhat in question, suggests that planets are formed around stars everywhere, not just in our galactic neighborhood. If planets are formed everywhere as opposed to just in select parts of the galaxy there are more planets generally and planets present in parts of the galaxy that are more hospitable to the formation of life.

    It is not just the area of the galaxy around earth that has planets. Planets are probably helpful for the formation of life. More planets more chances for life.

  11. 7 day orbits? by iamlucky13 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The article said these findings were based on 7 days of observations, using the transit method. In this method, the planet passes in front of the star, causing a very small, but sudden and periodic drop in the brightness of the star. Presumably, they don't claim to have a candidate unless they see multiple dimming events. If so, the longest possible orbit they could have observed is 7 days, meaning the planets are extremely close to their stars. Even their moons would be inhospitable.

    However, as another poster pointed out, these systems may also harbor smaller planets in more favorable orbits. In fact, some researchers believe that smaller rocky worlds can only form with the assistance of disturbances created by the gas giants.

    In contrast, other researchers are skeptical that planets can form at all in the inner regions of the galaxy because of the high star density. Even if they did, they might not be able to harbor life because of all the radiation from said stars.

    As another poster pointed out, however, we don't necessarily know the limits of conditions that life may form. This is getting a rather fanciful, but perhaps high-temperature silicon-based rock monsters are real, like Season 4, episode 7 where Kirk fought the lava man with the Abe Lincoln avatar (just kidding, I made that up...or did I?).

  12. Re:Good ol' hubble by Pooua · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Spinning liquids to form mirrors works on Earth because Earth's gravity acts perpendicular to the plane of spin. We would need some way of replicating those two forces in space. All the methods I know about would cost more than simply launching a solid mirror.

    A method of putting cheap mirrors into space that I proposed to my physics mentor a few decades ago is to use inflatable mirrors. He brushed off the idea at the time. Now, though, NASA has research on the general concept:

    NASA Tech: Parabolic Membrane-Thickness Variation for Inflatable Mirror

    A Google search for inflatable mirrors turns up many more results.

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