Slashdot Mirror


Billions of Planets In Milky Way?

jeffsenter writes, "The Washington Post has the story: 'NASA scientists using the Hubble Space Telescope have discovered what they believe are 16 new planets deep in the Milky Way, leading them to conclude there are probably billions of planets spread throughout the galaxy.' What sets these potential planets apart is they are in the central bulge of the Milky Way where most stars are located. More planets in the galaxy means more chances for life." The 16 are planet candidates at this point, until verified by spectroscopic measurement of their parent stars' wobbles, which probably can't be done until the James Webb Space Telescope files in 2013.

40 of 238 comments (clear)

  1. Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Harbouring what form of life exactly.

    Common sense suggests that there are billions of planets in the galaxy, and that millions of them could harbour life, and that thousands of them have significant evolved life and a few have intelligent (tool using or above) life. That's just playing with numbers and likelihoods and the belief that we're not a one off.

    But this just shows that there are lots of large gas giants. Maybe there's life on their moons...

    1. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by IDontAgreeWithYou · · Score: 2, Informative

      Until a few years ago we weren't sure that there were any other planets at all. Once astronomers figured out how to find these large planets, hundreds were discovered in short order. The implication is that planets are common and while we still can't detect earth-like planets, but it's certainly much easier to believe that they exist.

      --
      Finding other idiots on /. that agree with your opinion doesn't make it any less stupid.
    2. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by exp(pi*sqrt(163)) · · Score: 3, Insightful
      How do you deduce, using common sense, that one in a thousand planets could harbor life?

      How do you deduce, using common sense, that one in a thousand planets that harbor life have 'significant life'? (Whatever that is.)

      How do you deduce, using common sense, that a few in a thousand planets with 'significant life' have 'intelligent' life?

      That's just playing with numbers and likelihoods
      Oh, right. You just made up some random stuff and then claimed it was suggested by common sense.
      --
      Doesn't it make you feel good to know that our freedoms are protected by politicans, lawyers and journalists.
    3. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by Squiffy · · Score: 4, Informative

      Despite the fact that many people call the sun a "yellow dwarf" or an "average star", it's actually in the top 10%, by brightness. That also probably puts it in the top 10% by mass, radius, etc. Find the Gliese 3.0 catalog if you don't believe me.

    4. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by gstoddart · · Score: 4, Funny
      Despite the fact that many people call the sun a "yellow dwarf" or an "average star", it's actually in the top 10%, by brightness.

      Of course it's brighter, it's closer to us.

      (Note for the humour impaired, this is a joke)
      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    5. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by dgatwood · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Assuming we don't kill ourselves before our sun fails catastrophically:

      • The viable lifespan of our sun: 9.2 billion years (main sequence)
      • The period during which Earth has had life: 3.8bn + 4.6bn = 8.4 billion years
      • Period of human existence: 2 million + 4.6bn ~= 4.6 billion years
      • Probability of intelligent life: ~50%

      What remains to be determined are:

      • Number of stars with rocky planets.
      • Average number of rocky planets per star with rocky planets.
      • Percentage of rocky planets within band where life is expected (currently speculated to be 0.958 AU +/- 0.023 AU out of about 40 AU to Pluto, so about 1/869.565217)
      • Number of rocky planets in this band with the proper chemical makeup for life to begin (presumed to be nearly all of them, but...)

      So from this, a good guess might be 1/1700 of the rocky planets out there are habitable. If our solar system is typical, we have 5 rocky planets, so there would be a (1 - (1699/1700)*(1699/1700)*(1699/1700)*(1699/1700)*(1 699/1700)) or chance of our solar system evolving any life at all, or about 0.29%. Multiply times the odds of a habitable planet having intelligent life at any given time (about 1/2), and we have about a 0.145% chance (only a little better than 1/1000) of finding intelligent life in a solar system with rocky planets.

      Nowhere near the 1 in a million long shot speculated, but this assumes that Earth is typical, which is not necessarily a valid assumption.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    6. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by exp(pi*sqrt(163)) · · Score: 4, Funny

      Your logic is a little flawed. Britney Spears appeared on earth after 4.6 billion years of evolution around a star with a lifetime of 9.2 billion years. Therefore, by your logic, 50% of rocky worlds have, or have had, Britney Spears evolve on them.

      --
      Doesn't it make you feel good to know that our freedoms are protected by politicans, lawyers and journalists.
    7. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by helioquake · · Score: 2, Interesting

      IIRC, Gliese catalog lists only those stars found within 70 light-year radius from the Sun.

      In that very tiny sample, year, you are probably right.

      But if you look at the whole Galaxy, you are not correct. The Sun is surely a tiny dwarf star.

    8. Re:Billions of *Jupiter sized* gas giants by constantnormal · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It appears to me that all of your quite precise estimates are made on the basis of a single data point: our solar system.

      So the confidence factor of these estimates is pretty low, with a sample size of one out of a population of planets (or stars with planets) in this galaxy that is a pretty large number (perhaps billions, but that's a guess).

      Also, given that we know exactly zero about the processes that operated to produce (or will hopefully produce within another Darwinian cycle or two) intelligent life on this planet, it is a remarkable leap to assume that half of the habitable planets harbor intelligent life.

      Just for the sake of irrational, Slashdot-style argument, let's suppose that the following mechanisms are responsible for human evolution to the top of the food chain here on the third rock from the Sun:
          1) A world that is mostly water
          2) A large moon that causes significant tides
          3) A paleoclimate pattern of greenhouse and ice ages, without slipping over into either runaway greenhouse effect or having the ice ages crank up the albedo so as to remain permanent (a neat trick, for which we have no explanation)
          4) A molten core that lasts just the right amount of time, which presumes either (or both) the tidal effects of a large moon or a specific percentage of radioactive elements sufficient to keep the home fires burning

      I could go on, but you get the idea. We know zilch about what causes intelligent life to arise, whether it is the normal course or an isolated instance, and exactly what teatures of our world have contributed to this. Certainly a regular series of mass extinctions would seem to be a prerequisite for life to advance to more versatile forms. And of course, there need to be stable intervals in between the periods of catastrophe for newbie life forms to develop before the dice get rolled again (and again and again). We certainly had a number of mass extinctions before humans (or the critters that eventually became humans) arrived on the scene.

      So exactly what percentage of worlds fit this description, and what is your sample size? The above notions are all simply speculations, but they're a lot more sophisticated speculations than "1 non-gas-giant planet of 5 supports life, therefore 20% of the non-gas giant planets support life", or intelligent life has appeared on this world after it is half its projected existence, therefore half of all worlds supporting life have intelligent life".

      Hopefully, this next Darwinian scythe from the icehouse-to-greenhouse-to-icehouse cycle we are currently on will result in smarter humans, and if not, then smarter bears or cockroaches. But not birds. I can't stand birds, as they crap all over my car.

      These arguments PROVE (OK, strongly hint at) that there's no intelligent life on this world.
      When there is insufficient information to state anything about a solution set, intelligent beings do not extrapolate an answer to nine decimal places.

  2. ISR by Daemonstar · · Score: 4, Funny

    In Soviet Russia, space telescope looks at YOU!

    --
    I don't reply to Anonymous posts; if you have something to say to me, identify yourself or I won't reply.
  3. well if they won't do it... by Wizzerd911 · · Score: 3, Funny

    I think the best way to contact aliens and let them know we are here is to build a giant billboard about 10x bigger than the sun that says "Hey aliens, people live here" and park it right outside out solar system. That way when they're looking at us with their giant telescopes, they'd see it and know. I'm sure we could get pepsi to sponsor that billboard, they sponsor anything. As for us seeing other intelligent life, just watch for planets to spontaniously blow themselves up. I'm sure we'll almost do that a few times in the future looking at the past so logically some aliens have to do it.

    --
    Is it just me or is it not going to upgrade to Vista in here?
    1. Re:well if they won't do it... by blueZhift · · Score: 2, Interesting

      As for us seeing other intelligent life, just watch for planets to spontaniously blow themselves up.

      Sadly, that may not be a bad idea. So assuming that we do not ourselves generate this kind of signature, we may be able to see something in a decade or two. Looking for extraterrestrial nuclear detonations would probably make a fine grad school project!

    2. Re:well if they won't do it... by Guysmiley777 · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Looking for extraterrestrial nuclear detonations would probably make a fine grad school project!

      Wouldn't that be kind of like listening for an ant fart 100 miles away when you're at a heavy metal concert?

      Lots of noise

      Or were you being sarcastic?
      --
      Coding with assembly is like playing with Legos. Coding an application in assembly is like building a car with Legos.
  4. Working on it! by ThankfulJosh · · Score: 5, Informative

    I work for the Shuttle program. The current plan is to send up a Hubble repair mission. Can't say when, but it's definitely planned.

    1. Re:Working on it! by OakDragon · · Score: 3, Funny
      I work for the Shuttle program.

      Hey, can you snag me some of those NASA ash trays? Sweet!

    2. Re:Working on it! by jimstapleton · · Score: 2, Funny
      I work for the Shuttle program

      The -2 from OT mods will be worth it for saying this: YOU ROCK.
      --
      34486853790
      Connection too slow for X forwarding? Try "ssh -CX user@host"
    3. Re:Working on it! by OrangeTide · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I would hope that repairing the existing telescope would be cheaper than putting up a new one. And ideally I think we all would like multiple Hubble-class telescopes going at once. I wish there was some way to save the Hubble, maybe put it in a museum or something. So little space history has been preserved because it is not economical to do so.

      If we save the hubble, maybe 100 years from now they will have coated it with diamond-polymer and put it on the playground at the city museum for the kids to climb on.

      --
      “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
  5. 16 -- billions by GungaDan · · Score: 5, Funny

    Fuck my accountant. I'm getting an astronomer.

    --
    Eloi are stupid, throw morlocks at them!
    1. Re:16 -- billions by ecklesweb · · Score: 4, Funny

      Astronomers can be creative, accountants can't.

      Ever hear of Enron?

    2. Re:16 -- billions by iamlucky13 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Nice. But getting past the joke for anyone who may be confused:

      If you observe a field of 100 stars and find that 16 of them have planets, then it is not unreasonable to speculate on the extension that 16% or so of all stars have planets. Thus from a galaxy with 200 billion stars, billions of them may have planets.

      Furthermore, none of this precludes the possibility that more stars may have planets than don't.

      Unfortunately, however, Worldcom didn't really have more cash than their independent auditors found, but that's another story.

  6. Billions of peanuts in Milky Way?? by davidwr · · Score: 3, Funny

    Oh wait, that's the 1-AU-wide super-sized Snickers bar.

    --
    Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
  7. They're telling us this now? by Rhyth · · Score: 4, Funny
    16 new planets deep in the Milky Way, leading them to conclude there are probably billions of planets spread throughout the galaxy
    Could this not have been inferred by the fact there are seven others in plain sight?
    1. Re:They're telling us this now? by kfg · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Could this not have been inferred by the fact there are seven others in plain sight?

      Yes, yes it could. The inference even makes a perfectly dandy working hypothesis for testing.

      But test it; it might be wrong. I'd be surprised if it were, but the surprises are where the real science happens. Where you encounter things you did not expect and are forced to upgrade your models to account for them.

      It can even be infered that because one of the seven planets that is in plain sight has life that out of billions of other planets one in seven of them will have life, but I wouldn't go around doing anything so rash as to believe that one in seven planets has life.

      In fact, in this specific instance, there are good reasons for infering that planets in the galactic bulge are not suitable for sustaining life. Radiation and the general chaos of the local enviroment would tend to rip combining molecules apart faster than they could recombine into stable, self-reproductive units.

      But test, because it might be:

      Life, Jim! But not as we know it, not as we know it, not as we know. It's life, Jim, but not as we know it.

      In fact, I've always thought the assumption of "Earth like" planets being necessary to support life was a pretty stupid one. If nothing else oxygen is pretty nasty stuff, and I infer that life based on it is comparitively rare.

      KFG

    2. Re:They're telling us this now? by inviolet · · Score: 4, Funny
      Mercury does not even have an independend rotation and thus might just be considered a moon of the sun . . .

      That's no moon.

      --
      FATMOUSE + YOU = FATMOUSE
  8. Re:Good ol' hubble by AsmCoder8088 · · Score: 5, Interesting
    There are some advantages to ground-based scopes versus ones such as the Hubble. For instance, you can get a great deal more sensitivity on the ground than in space simply due to the fact that the aperture of the primary mirror can be made much larger for a ground scope than a space scope. The reason behind this is cost - it is far more expensive to put a large mirror in space than on the ground. However, since it is in space, the smaller mirror does have better resolution. So it is simply a trade-off between sensitivity and resolution. With greater sensitivity, you can pull in fainter objects, but with better resolution, you can differentiate more easily between distance objects.

    This is a great example of a ground-based telescope that could easily rival any space telescope:

    OWL Telescope

  9. Re:duh! by mooingyak · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Even lower -- 1 in 200 if every star has only one planet. If we go with an average of 5, then it's just 1 in 1000.

    --
    William of Ockham had no beard. The most likely explanation is that it was chewed off by squirrels every morning.
  10. Re:Good ol' hubble by erroneus · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I think that's because space manufacturing hasn't been made a reality yet. I think once mirrors or even optical lenses are made in zero-gravity in a place where size isn't nearly so important, space-borne telescopes could well out-perform the earth-based.

  11. life?? by bcrowell · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The slant on the slashdot summary is kind of goofy. Actually, the central bulge of the galaxy is a lousy place to look for life. There's a good book about this: Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe, by Ward and Brownlee. It looks to me like the author of TFA went out of his way to highlight the life angle, which wasn't that significant, and then the slashdot submitter highlighted it even more, as if it was the main point.

    1. Re:life?? by jeffsenter · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yeah I used the life angle to get it posted, but there is a little bit of substance to this increased chance of life thinking. Even though the central bulge is not the best place to find life, finding plenty of planets in the central bulge, where large scale planet formation was somewhat in question, suggests that planets are formed around stars everywhere, not just in our galactic neighborhood. If planets are formed everywhere as opposed to just in select parts of the galaxy there are more planets generally and planets present in parts of the galaxy that are more hospitable to the formation of life.

      It is not just the area of the galaxy around earth that has planets. Planets are probably helpful for the formation of life. More planets more chances for life.

  12. Re:Why the assumption? by paladinwannabe2 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It's because you can't draw conclusions from a sample size of 1. Suppose that you've spent your whole life in a blue room. You know there are other rooms out there- but can you assume that they are all blue? Can you assume that most of them are blue? Even if there are other blue rooms, would they be the same shade (Cerulean, let's say) as yours?

    Even assuming that we are not unique, there is a big difference between thousands of stars with planets and billions of stars with planets.

    --
    You are reading a copy of my copyrighted post.
  13. ... spread out over Billions of Years! by redelm · · Score: 5, Insightful
    The problem with multi-species science fiction is that it assumes contemporaneous (nearly synchronous!) technological development. Yet development is entirely an artifact without obvious time-based causes. And seems to proceed very swiftly on the geologic time scale.

    SETI's odds are very poor on this score.

    1. Re:... spread out over Billions of Years! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There's a theory that no lifeform will evolve to become significantly more intelligent or technologically advanced than humans, because at the level of intelligence we've reached an increase doesn't offer us an evolutionary advantage. We're already able to survive and breed, and indeed dominate the planet. And as a society gets more advanced in terms of technology, its members require less and less intelligence to survive and breed. This will eventually lead to a slow decay in intelligence which slows or stops the technological advance as well. The species will ultimately end up in some kind of a permanent, static equilibrium state if it survives long enough. We may be just a couple of centuries away from this ourselves.

  14. Re:Good ol' hubble by Ironsides · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Ah, but the most kick ass telescope would be one located on the far side of the moon. No earth light to interefere and, to quote a book "This place has no atmosphere". With the 1/6th gravity, the mirrors could be much larger as well.

    --
    Fly me to the moon Let me sing among those stars Let me see what spring is like On jupiter and mars
  15. star gate by Joe+The+Dragon · · Score: 2, Funny

    how meny of them have stargates on them?

  16. but... by joe+155 · · Score: 2, Funny

    How come we'll believe someone when they say that there are billions of planets in the galaxy, but when we're told that paint is wet we have to touch it - just to make sure

    --
    *''I can't believe it's not a hyperlink.''
  17. Drake Equation Parameters by Ranger · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I'm curious how this will help nail down some of the parameters for the famous Drake Equation N = R* * Fp * Ne * Fl * Fi * Fc * L.This new guestimate will help narrow down f sub p, the fraction of stars that have planets, and go some distance to narrowing down n sub e, the number of planets that can support life per star. As our resolution power increases the better able we will be able to come up with better guestimates.

    The answer might be zero anyway. After proposing the equation Fermi pointed out if intelligent life is so common, where are they? A space faring civilization travelling at 1% the speed of light would cross the galaxy in ten million years. Relative to the age of the Milky Way Galaxy, ten million years is a very short period of time. This is called the Fermi Paradox. Where are they?

    I think we just don't know enough yet and we haven't been looking for very long. I think our technology will help us give a more accurate answer to the Drake equation within the next 100 years. We may even find evidence of life on other worlds when we can detect free oxygen on worlds in habitable zones light years away. And that could happen within the next decade or two.

    For those people who say the aliens are already here, I would ask would an intelligent space faring civilization travel hundreds of light years just to kidnap some redneck farmer and give him an anal probe and then make crop circles in his fields? I suppose if it was some alien fratboy hazing ritual they would.

    --
    "You'll get nothing, and you'll like it!"
  18. Why James Webb ST? by helioquake · · Score: 2, Informative

    The 16 are planet candidates at this point, until verified by spectroscopic measurement of their parent stars' wobbles, which probably can't be done until the James Webb Space Telescope files in 2013.

    A detection of Doppler motion due to planetary perturbation is miniscule. It could take an accuracy of less than one km/s, or more likely a few dozen meter per second. It is extremely hard to make a high resolution spectroscopic instrument for a space satellite to meet that criterion. Calibrating out all the uncertainties in the motion of the satellite would become an issue as well. That said, I don't think the James Webb ST would do much in this topic.

    Besides, the designers for JWST don't strongly desire to have a spectrographic instrument on board the JWST. It may end up as a purely imaging mission, which is extremely boring for physicists.

    The verification is better done with adaptive optics + Echelle grating at V, R or IR band from ground.

  19. 7 day orbits? by iamlucky13 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The article said these findings were based on 7 days of observations, using the transit method. In this method, the planet passes in front of the star, causing a very small, but sudden and periodic drop in the brightness of the star. Presumably, they don't claim to have a candidate unless they see multiple dimming events. If so, the longest possible orbit they could have observed is 7 days, meaning the planets are extremely close to their stars. Even their moons would be inhospitable.

    However, as another poster pointed out, these systems may also harbor smaller planets in more favorable orbits. In fact, some researchers believe that smaller rocky worlds can only form with the assistance of disturbances created by the gas giants.

    In contrast, other researchers are skeptical that planets can form at all in the inner regions of the galaxy because of the high star density. Even if they did, they might not be able to harbor life because of all the radiation from said stars.

    As another poster pointed out, however, we don't necessarily know the limits of conditions that life may form. This is getting a rather fanciful, but perhaps high-temperature silicon-based rock monsters are real, like Season 4, episode 7 where Kirk fought the lava man with the Abe Lincoln avatar (just kidding, I made that up...or did I?).

  20. Re:Good ol' hubble by Pooua · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Spinning liquids to form mirrors works on Earth because Earth's gravity acts perpendicular to the plane of spin. We would need some way of replicating those two forces in space. All the methods I know about would cost more than simply launching a solid mirror.

    A method of putting cheap mirrors into space that I proposed to my physics mentor a few decades ago is to use inflatable mirrors. He brushed off the idea at the time. Now, though, NASA has research on the general concept:

    NASA Tech: Parabolic Membrane-Thickness Variation for Inflatable Mirror

    A Google search for inflatable mirrors turns up many more results.

    --
    Taking stuff apart since 1969 (TM)
  21. Time to remember Giordano Bruno by GuerreroDelInterfaz · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Who was burned at the stake for saying precisely this by the creationists of his days. That was persecution, not the phantom "book banning" that today's creationists crybabies complain about. Nowadays, hopefully they have lost their power; do not let them conquer it again...