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Gamestop Managers Worried Over PS3 Launch
The Opposable Thumbs column has commentary today from some managers who attended the annual EB/Gamestop preview event. The reaction from the attendees to the PS3/Blue-ray presence is not inspiring. From the article: "The difference between HD DVD and Blu-Ray was striking as well. 'Blu-ray had a tiny presence in the very back of the show floor, while Microsoft had large displays and surround sound systems in their hospitality suite so you can take a look at what their HD DVD drives would look like. It was impressive, and gave the feeling that HD DVD was real and Blu-ray wasn't ready for the show.' I asked him his feelings going into the PS3 launch with no word on allocations or preorders, and no news on what will happen towards the holidays. 'It's going to be ugly, there is no way this launch is going to go well.'"
There seems to be a big difference between the industry's perception of the PS3 and the public perception. Most average Joes I run across seem to be anticipating the PS3. But they can't explain why beyond the branding. "Oh, I really like the PS2, so..." Industry people and industry watchers are talking more and more about Sony's lack of strategy, Blu Ray concerns, hardware problems, price, etc. More and more, the assumption that Sony will once again dominate is dissipating. So I think the most interesting thing about the PS3 launch will be watching what happens with word of mouth once the console is out. Should we expect, "Oh man, the new Playstation might be expensive, but it's so cool! You need it!" Should we expect, "Oh man, my brother got a PS3 and all the games suck." What's going to happen? Is the PS branding going to crash and burn? Will everyone just save up to buy it because PlayStation has become synonymous with game console to them? Will it just do okay? I'll be sure to read all about it during my short breaks from the Wii.
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Is even at that price, they are likely to sell out almost immediately. Ok great, except that means that many people will be left contemplating another option. The word of mouth that will be dangerous is word of mouth about the Wii, but particularly the 360 (since it's more expensive and a more direct competitor). If they miss out on the PS3, but they hear great things about the 360, maybe they decide to take the jump. Once they do, that's probably it. For most people, 1 expensive next gen console will be it. They might get a Wii as well because of the price but the 360 and PS3 market will be pretty small.
That I think is the real concern here. It's not that the launch has to meet up to some certain standard of Sony quality, it's that it has to be good enough to convince people to hold on to their dollars and wait for more PS3s to come out rather than get a 360. I'll bet you MS drops a $100 price reduction and Halo 3 on the launch as well.