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Gamestop Managers Worried Over PS3 Launch
The Opposable Thumbs column has commentary today from some managers who attended the annual EB/Gamestop preview event. The reaction from the attendees to the PS3/Blue-ray presence is not inspiring. From the article: "The difference between HD DVD and Blu-Ray was striking as well. 'Blu-ray had a tiny presence in the very back of the show floor, while Microsoft had large displays and surround sound systems in their hospitality suite so you can take a look at what their HD DVD drives would look like. It was impressive, and gave the feeling that HD DVD was real and Blu-ray wasn't ready for the show.' I asked him his feelings going into the PS3 launch with no word on allocations or preorders, and no news on what will happen towards the holidays. 'It's going to be ugly, there is no way this launch is going to go well.'"
Remember last year? Remember Microsoft botching the XBox 360 launch? Booking too much retail shelf space and not delivering product? Furious retailers? A product with heat dissipation problems? A weak selection of games at launch?
That's where Sony is this year.
2007 for the PS3 will probably look like 2006 for the Xbox 360. The PS3 will slowly launch over the next year, and finally start to sell in volume for the Xmas 2007 season. Probably at a lower price. This will give developers another year to get the Cell processor figured out, so the games will be better.
This is the price of increasing console complexity - the launch phase has more problems.
Wow. You mean to say that Gamestop has been trying to sell real products that exist instead of trying to sell products that don't? They must really be crazy!
There seems to be a big difference between the industry's perception of the PS3 and the public perception. Most average Joes I run across seem to be anticipating the PS3. But they can't explain why beyond the branding. "Oh, I really like the PS2, so..." Industry people and industry watchers are talking more and more about Sony's lack of strategy, Blu Ray concerns, hardware problems, price, etc. More and more, the assumption that Sony will once again dominate is dissipating. So I think the most interesting thing about the PS3 launch will be watching what happens with word of mouth once the console is out. Should we expect, "Oh man, the new Playstation might be expensive, but it's so cool! You need it!" Should we expect, "Oh man, my brother got a PS3 and all the games suck." What's going to happen? Is the PS branding going to crash and burn? Will everyone just save up to buy it because PlayStation has become synonymous with game console to them? Will it just do okay? I'll be sure to read all about it during my short breaks from the Wii.
http://nerdcartoons.com/
Yeah... they haven't been taking my preorder for Duke Nukem Forever on the Phantom. In fact, I haven't even seen the cardboard standup in any of my local stores... and we have 3 gamestops in a 2 block radius.
I'll never make that mistake again, reading the experts' opinions. - Feynman
Nobody knows, because Sony doesn't know how many they can really promise to each retailer yet. Sure they claimed 400,000 units at launch for the US. Other companies have claimed higher numbers much closer to launch dates only to change their figures at the last minute.
GameStop is taking the sensible approach of waiting to do pre-orders until Sony (and Nintendo) give them guaranteed allocations. Nintendo is likely to be able to restock all retailers pretty quickly (relatively speaking). However, I expect if you don't get a PS3 on launch day, you will not see another one until January. Unless of course for some reason they can't move 100,000 systems at the midnight launch in Japan. If THAT happens, the US will get the next batch rather than Japan, I expect. Either way, the 360 launch was smooth sailing in comparison to what Sony is facing. I just hope we aren't reading about murders or deadly stampedes on the morning of 11/17.
A lot of people who would otherwise buy a PS3 are turned off by the sticker shock, especially since the general expectation for so long had been that it would be close to the 360 in pricing. No doubt the first 2-3 million units will fly off shelves without problem. It's May/June of 2007 that we start seeing real indicators of public reaction to the system. If sales aren't surpassing the 360 by that point (presuming production volume is high enough), then it's time to start really questioning the ability of Sony to retain that #1 spot.
Is even at that price, they are likely to sell out almost immediately. Ok great, except that means that many people will be left contemplating another option. The word of mouth that will be dangerous is word of mouth about the Wii, but particularly the 360 (since it's more expensive and a more direct competitor). If they miss out on the PS3, but they hear great things about the 360, maybe they decide to take the jump. Once they do, that's probably it. For most people, 1 expensive next gen console will be it. They might get a Wii as well because of the price but the 360 and PS3 market will be pretty small.
That I think is the real concern here. It's not that the launch has to meet up to some certain standard of Sony quality, it's that it has to be good enough to convince people to hold on to their dollars and wait for more PS3s to come out rather than get a 360. I'll bet you MS drops a $100 price reduction and Halo 3 on the launch as well.
(I'm ignoring the PS3's attempt at their own network service, as they haven't really talked much about it, or their own motion-sensing controller, as those don't really distinguish themselves apart from the others
Network services for the 360? Big hit for a lot of folks, especially considering broadband penetration in the US is rapidly increasing. New control scheme for the Wii? Very popular, particularly with gamers that are becoming disillusioned with the current type of games (more graphics, less gameplay, and less fun).
The trend that Sony is focusing on, unfortunately for them, is something that the vast majority of users won't care about. They don't have an HDTV, much less one that does 1080p or perhaps does HDMI.
What Sony SHOULD have done is just focus on their massive developer support, and on the games themselves. They've certainly talked about it with the PS3, but that message is diluted too much with the rest of the Blu-ray, 1080p, SIXAXIS talk going on. If all they did was thump their chest and focus on the games, they would have sold a lot more people on the PS3 (myself included).
-- jchenx