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Gamestop Managers Worried Over PS3 Launch
The Opposable Thumbs column has commentary today from some managers who attended the annual EB/Gamestop preview event. The reaction from the attendees to the PS3/Blue-ray presence is not inspiring. From the article: "The difference between HD DVD and Blu-Ray was striking as well. 'Blu-ray had a tiny presence in the very back of the show floor, while Microsoft had large displays and surround sound systems in their hospitality suite so you can take a look at what their HD DVD drives would look like. It was impressive, and gave the feeling that HD DVD was real and Blu-ray wasn't ready for the show.' I asked him his feelings going into the PS3 launch with no word on allocations or preorders, and no news on what will happen towards the holidays. 'It's going to be ugly, there is no way this launch is going to go well.'"
It clearly says there will be a $600 configuration and a $500 configuration.
Remember last year? Remember Microsoft botching the XBox 360 launch? Booking too much retail shelf space and not delivering product? Furious retailers? A product with heat dissipation problems? A weak selection of games at launch?
That's where Sony is this year.
2007 for the PS3 will probably look like 2006 for the Xbox 360. The PS3 will slowly launch over the next year, and finally start to sell in volume for the Xmas 2007 season. Probably at a lower price. This will give developers another year to get the Cell processor figured out, so the games will be better.
This is the price of increasing console complexity - the launch phase has more problems.
Wow. You mean to say that Gamestop has been trying to sell real products that exist instead of trying to sell products that don't? They must really be crazy!
There seems to be a big difference between the industry's perception of the PS3 and the public perception. Most average Joes I run across seem to be anticipating the PS3. But they can't explain why beyond the branding. "Oh, I really like the PS2, so..." Industry people and industry watchers are talking more and more about Sony's lack of strategy, Blu Ray concerns, hardware problems, price, etc. More and more, the assumption that Sony will once again dominate is dissipating. So I think the most interesting thing about the PS3 launch will be watching what happens with word of mouth once the console is out. Should we expect, "Oh man, the new Playstation might be expensive, but it's so cool! You need it!" Should we expect, "Oh man, my brother got a PS3 and all the games suck." What's going to happen? Is the PS branding going to crash and burn? Will everyone just save up to buy it because PlayStation has become synonymous with game console to them? Will it just do okay? I'll be sure to read all about it during my short breaks from the Wii.
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Sony has a huge mindshare... there are a whole generation of kids who use the word "Playstation" interchangably with "Game Console". There is a huge Sony fanboy presence on the internet. Sony is in decent shape.
They might lose a lot of ground to the 360, but they are not going to be wiped out of the market. The console race will just be more of a split, instead of Sony dominating everything like the last generation.
Well, considering the fact that at every Gamestop/EB games the official party line seemed over the last 1.5 years to be that the 360 was the end all be all of gaming systems and the PS3 was horrible, why am I not surprised. Seriously, when he was off the job the local gamestop manager actually was talking about how he was looking forward to the PS3, and yet go in and ask him, and suddenly he attempts to push 360 superiority. Recently this changed, but for a while, they basically bashed the PS3 as store policy. And now they're saying they think it will fail? I smell a combination of stupidity and possible payoff.
Yeah... they haven't been taking my preorder for Duke Nukem Forever on the Phantom. In fact, I haven't even seen the cardboard standup in any of my local stores... and we have 3 gamestops in a 2 block radius.
I'll never make that mistake again, reading the experts' opinions. - Feynman
I take it you've never see a progressive-compatible game such as Metroid Prime 2 via component cables? Who cares about the screen resolution if the actual graphics look the same (shading, etc).
The PSP is also superior to the DS (I've changed my mind since the first time I saw it because the game I saw had crappy 3D) yet the DS is out-selling the PSP by a huge margin. The Gamecube and Xbox had superior graphics over the PS2, yet the PS2 was (and still is) king of the market. Better technology doesn't equal better marketshare (nor better games).
As for their characters, as long as the games are well made and fun, I'll be buying a Nintendo console if only for Zelda and Metroid, along with the great "out of nowhere" games like Pikmin.
Have fun with your boring "first person shooter #50" hi-definition games.
Nobody knows, because Sony doesn't know how many they can really promise to each retailer yet. Sure they claimed 400,000 units at launch for the US. Other companies have claimed higher numbers much closer to launch dates only to change their figures at the last minute.
GameStop is taking the sensible approach of waiting to do pre-orders until Sony (and Nintendo) give them guaranteed allocations. Nintendo is likely to be able to restock all retailers pretty quickly (relatively speaking). However, I expect if you don't get a PS3 on launch day, you will not see another one until January. Unless of course for some reason they can't move 100,000 systems at the midnight launch in Japan. If THAT happens, the US will get the next batch rather than Japan, I expect. Either way, the 360 launch was smooth sailing in comparison to what Sony is facing. I just hope we aren't reading about murders or deadly stampedes on the morning of 11/17.
A lot of people who would otherwise buy a PS3 are turned off by the sticker shock, especially since the general expectation for so long had been that it would be close to the 360 in pricing. No doubt the first 2-3 million units will fly off shelves without problem. It's May/June of 2007 that we start seeing real indicators of public reaction to the system. If sales aren't surpassing the 360 by that point (presuming production volume is high enough), then it's time to start really questioning the ability of Sony to retain that #1 spot.
Is even at that price, they are likely to sell out almost immediately. Ok great, except that means that many people will be left contemplating another option. The word of mouth that will be dangerous is word of mouth about the Wii, but particularly the 360 (since it's more expensive and a more direct competitor). If they miss out on the PS3, but they hear great things about the 360, maybe they decide to take the jump. Once they do, that's probably it. For most people, 1 expensive next gen console will be it. They might get a Wii as well because of the price but the 360 and PS3 market will be pretty small.
That I think is the real concern here. It's not that the launch has to meet up to some certain standard of Sony quality, it's that it has to be good enough to convince people to hold on to their dollars and wait for more PS3s to come out rather than get a 360. I'll bet you MS drops a $100 price reduction and Halo 3 on the launch as well.
(I'm ignoring the PS3's attempt at their own network service, as they haven't really talked much about it, or their own motion-sensing controller, as those don't really distinguish themselves apart from the others
Network services for the 360? Big hit for a lot of folks, especially considering broadband penetration in the US is rapidly increasing. New control scheme for the Wii? Very popular, particularly with gamers that are becoming disillusioned with the current type of games (more graphics, less gameplay, and less fun).
The trend that Sony is focusing on, unfortunately for them, is something that the vast majority of users won't care about. They don't have an HDTV, much less one that does 1080p or perhaps does HDMI.
What Sony SHOULD have done is just focus on their massive developer support, and on the games themselves. They've certainly talked about it with the PS3, but that message is diluted too much with the rest of the Blu-ray, 1080p, SIXAXIS talk going on. If all they did was thump their chest and focus on the games, they would have sold a lot more people on the PS3 (myself included).
-- jchenx
Dude, it is going to be a $600 purchase - that isn't baseless FUD
I think what the GP meant is that it's impossible to be an educated consumer regarding the PS3. There is so much spin that it's really hard to make any sort of informed choice. Let's look at the major players.
Sony's being arrogant, elitist cheerleaders. Of course, they're always this way, it's just that they usually don't say much after their systems launch. We were promised the stars before (PS2 will do Toy Story!!), so it's hard to know what claims are actually true. And it doesn't help that historically, Sony hardware at launch has been, uh, less than rock-solid. I really don't want to pay $600 for a Disc Read Error three years from now.
We could talk about Nintendo and MS, but there's really no point. Then we have everyone else, and this means retailers and "the media".
As for retailers, all I've heard beyond the "no preorders yet" line is blogs quoting anonymous Gamestop workers. Even assuming the facts relayed in this article are 100% true, the conclusions given are anything but logical. This guy somehow equates "regional manager won't tell me about PS3 yet" plus "Sony and Blueray didn't impress me at our show" to mean that the launch will be a disaster. The logic here is complete bullshit, ignoring any case where the conclusion fails. For example: maybe Sony doesn't really care about EBGamestopExpo that much? Or maybe the higher-ups in Gamestop don't want store managers getting incomplete or tentative information and passing it on to customers? I find it hard to believe that this guy doesn't remember the PS2 launch. Of course, there's a significant chance he/she is 17, so maybe I'm being optimistic on their brain capacity.
Then there's the media. I really have nothing to say here, save that any "analyst" who thinks a PS3 costs $900 to manufacture should be hanged on Wall St. as a warning to not be stupid.
Not moving foward? Unless I am mistaken the Wii-mote is better tech than previous controllers. It also has some new and unused tech that haven't really been applied to the video game market. True the games won't run in 1080 but honestly WHO CARES?! I don't care if I can see the sweat rolling off some linebackers head while I am playing a game, I'm more concerned about how fun it is to play that game and kick my friends ass in it. I am supposedly in the key demographic for Sony and Microsoft 25 year old male who is into the high end technology and has money to blow and I am not going to waste my money on the PS3.... hell I'm having a hard time justifying buying a 360 cuz I am sick of the same crap over and over. I bought a PSP and Liberty City Stories and Burnout..... 3 weeks later I traded it in for store credit and bought a new DS and some games cuz it was the same recycled crap over and over. New graphics != mean a better system (sure it helps but its not all there is).
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