Comprehensive Projection of World Oil Exports

Prof. Goose writes, "This article is a comprehensive assessment of world oil exports, defined has the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries. This assessment is made by projecting into the future fixed change rates that reflect current trends in liquids production and consumption in all countries where presently the difference between the two factors is positive. The outcome of this assessment is rather worrisome." Here is the money graph through 2020.

Comments

more peak oil nonsense

[Surt]

I mean who can take these folks seriously? Oil production will never peak, because oil is an infinite resource. When you want more, you pump more out of the ground. How hard is this to understand?

This makes no sense

[Overzeetop]

Okay, so I skimmed that article. All these graphs and charts seem to be based on a non-zero origin - the export quantity of oil. Shouldn't you start with the total capacity of oil (not just exports), then subtract the projected use of oil to get a net supply-demand curve and extrapolate dollars (or future world collapse) from there?

Also, this whole discussion misses an enormous fact of economics - as one item gets expensive, consumers will find substitutes of comparable value to fill their needs. There is debate over the CPI in the US, as they use a (relatively) fixed shopping list. If the price of beef (for instance) doubles, people will eat more chicken until a more equitbale price point returns for beef. "Alternative" energy isn't quite as well developed, but we are seeing direct reactions to the oil prices of the last few years (I like to tell my Republican friends that I paid less than a dollar a gallon for gas at the end of Bill Clinton's presidency, and I'm disappointed that their President has cost me more in gas than he has saved me in tax cuts). The movement of energy supply and demand moves on a larger time scale - several years to decades - simply due to the infrastructure required. Peak Oil, whenever it occurs, will not be an "event" but rather a long term, low angle curve which is extended indefinitely by technology and evolutinary changes in the energy market.

Re:No, we're running out!!

[AngryUndead]

So the Jews hold the power to the world's oil reserves. Shocker.

MIssing in the assessment

[amightywind]

Probably because it's easier than predicting how technological innovation and the ebb and flow of the global economy will totally change the entire equation long before these simplistic predictions ever come due.

Missing in the article was any assessment of the exploration potential of 100,000+ miles of continental shelf around the world. The Chevron find in the gulf of Mexico is an example of what awaits.