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Predicting Launch Title Review Scores
Next Generation is hosting an article attempting to prognosticate the spread of review scores for the PS3 and Wii. Author Matt Matthews does this by examining historical precedents for previous system launches. From the article: "Next month Sony's PlayStation 3 will launch with only two games which will get an average review score of 90% or better. On the other hand, Nintendo's Wii will have three games which will average scores of 90% or better. And it is almost certain that each of those consoles will launch with two absolute stinkers, games which consistently score below 60%... How can we know this? Because history tells us that this is what happens with console launch titles." For even more analysis of the data, Matthews has additional charts on curmudgeon gamer.
The problem with game ratings is they aren't fair or useful. What, exactly, is the difference between a 92% and a 93%? In order for them to be accurate and useful, game reviewers should be using the entire scope of their scale, not just the middle and top. A really bad game shouldn't get a 60% -- it should get a 10%. An average game shouldn't get 85%, it should get 50%.
Similarly, various review sites use category-based ratings, for instance, graphics are rated separately from sound effects. The game might have a low graphic, sound, and gameplay, but get a good overall grade. That doesn't make sense and they usually justify it in their review text by saying "We felt the average score of 80% just wasn't enough, so we're giving it an overall score of 90%." Why? If everything was so bad, your scores should back it up.
These and many other reasons are making game reviews less relevant and more like blog posts than concrete reviews.
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*Playstation 10 NintendoUniverse XBoxForever comparison
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*Review of available launch titles
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"Your play habits show a definite trend towards RPG and first person shooter titles, both of which are strongly represented on the Playstation platform. Further, a random sampling of your friends culled from 1500 websites, chat rooms, and virtual playgrounds indicate that 69.7% of your friends plan on purchasing the Playstation 10, while only 34.6% plan on purchasing the Nintendo Universe, and only 23.4% the XBox Forever. Do you agree with this recommendation, or would you like more information?"
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"Analysis of your past purchases and play times indicate that you would be most satisfied with Tony Hawk Sky Boarding Extreme and Shadow the Hedgehog: Commandos. Do you wish to accept these recommendations?"
*More info
"Tony Hawk Sky Boarding Extreme allows you to take to the skies of Los Angeles as you..."
*Stop, More info on other titles
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*No, info on RPG and first person shooters
"I'm sorry, at this time there are no RPG or first person shooter titles available for the Playstation 10 that have an average review score over 50. Predictive analysis of your play times indicate that should you purchase any of these titles, you would engage in only 4.5 hours of play. Playstation 10 highly recommends that you purchase Tony Hawk Sky Boarding Extreme and Shadow the Hedgehog: Commandos. Do you wish to accept these recommendations?"
*You told me PS10 had great RPG's and FPS's, WTF?
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*Stop download, I didn't want those two games.
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