Predicting Launch Title Review Scores

Next Generation is hosting an article attempting to prognosticate the spread of review scores for the PS3 and Wii. Author Matt Matthews does this by examining historical precedents for previous system launches. From the article: "Next month Sony's PlayStation 3 will launch with only two games which will get an average review score of 90% or better. On the other hand, Nintendo's Wii will have three games which will average scores of 90% or better. And it is almost certain that each of those consoles will launch with two absolute stinkers, games which consistently score below 60%... How can we know this? Because history tells us that this is what happens with console launch titles." For even more analysis of the data, Matthews has additional charts on curmudgeon gamer.

Comments

Hmm

[joshetc]

Wouldn't "Preview Scores" be easier.

Re:Hmm

[HappySqurriel]

What is really stupid about this is that their methodology is probably as accurate as doing preview scores for every game ...

Basically, most Game Review scores are less about the actually quality of a game and is far more about how it compares to other games on the same platform; the reality is that their estimate of 10% of games will recieve a 90% or higher score could be easily interpreted as "1 in 10 games will be dramatically better than the competition to the extent that it will justify a score of 90% or higher".

Personally, I believe that the average-average score is probably more telling of the quality of a launch because the average score of the average game will probably be effected more by how it compares to games on other platforms; for example, many PS2 launch games looked as bad as playstation games and were probably butchered in their reviews for not looking as good as they could.

better way of saying it.

[AcidLacedPenguiN]

The publishing companies will pay off the review mags so that 2 games will be guaranteed 90% or more, and "okay" games without the budget to pay for their percentage will be in and around the 60% mark.

Scores = joke

[daeg]

The problem with game ratings is they aren't fair or useful. What, exactly, is the difference between a 92% and a 93%? In order for them to be accurate and useful, game reviewers should be using the entire scope of their scale, not just the middle and top. A really bad game shouldn't get a 60% -- it should get a 10%. An average game shouldn't get 85%, it should get 50%.

Similarly, various review sites use category-based ratings, for instance, graphics are rated separately from sound effects. The game might have a low graphic, sound, and gameplay, but get a good overall grade. That doesn't make sense and they usually justify it in their review text by saying "We felt the average score of 80% just wasn't enough, so we're giving it an overall score of 90%." Why? If everything was so bad, your scores should back it up.

These and many other reasons are making game reviews less relevant and more like blog posts than concrete reviews.

Re:Scores = joke

[Riley Holmes]

I agree that the numerical scoring is an utter joke. But by reading the text reviews associated with the score, you can look for qualities that the game does well or poorly in. These things are more important to me than the score. The review can tell you the things that the game does well or the areas it flourishes in, and the score just gives you a basic idea of its overall goodness (in relation to the other reviewed games)

Re:Scores = joke

[DrXym]

There are sites such as metacritic.com and gamerankings.com which tot up all the ratings for a game from dozens of sites and give an average. Just like with Rotten Tomatoes and films, it gives you a fair idea on whether a game is any good or a stinking heap of shit.

It can be useful to look at especially if some site has a weird rating system, or Nintendo or Sony buy a good review. Naturally you still have to read reviews to see if the game appeals to you but these site help there too since you have links to dozens of reviews all within a single page.

Questionable

[Nasajin]

I think this approach to analysing computer game review scores is pretty flawed. Naturally, a percentage of games are going to be better, and a similar percentage is going to be worse than the average. All this shows is that there's a consistent mean score, and that the rest of the scores operate in a bell curve. It may be that the reviewers for GameRankings are required to work within a certain spread of figures for their reviews.

If anything it probably says more about three or four people working at GameRankings, not an industry wide standard.

Console Launch, 2050

[jayhawk88]

"Welcome to The Intenet, brought to you by new Google Pepsi. Please enter your search criteria."
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*Review of available launch titles
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"Invalid input. Playstation 10 Virtual Console download complete. By default, Playstation 10 has begun the download of your two included games, Tony Hawk Sky Boarding Extreme and Shadow the Hedgehog: Commandos. These titles were selected for you based on analysis of your play..."
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"Sony Corporation