1 Million Wiis To Be Sold in U.S. By December

Gamasutra reports on comments by Nintendo's Reggie-Fils Aime, who is claiming the company will have sold 1 Million Wii consoles by December 1st. From the article: "Nintendo's previously stated plans called for the company to ship approximately 4 million consoles globally before the end of 2006. It is not clear whether the new figures stated by Fils-Aime are still in line with these numbers, since no estimate for Japanese or European sales were given. Sony's plans call for 1 million consoles sales in the U.S. by the end of March, 2007. When interviewed by Reuters, Fils-Aime also commented on the potential lifespan of the Wii, suggesting that a four, five or even six year lifespan was 'just about right.'"

Comments

Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[east coast]

Is there really any question that Wii is going to sell a million units if their available? PS3 would do the same at over twice the price...

Re:Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[blueZhift]

A million sales won't be a surprise. The fun begins when/if the Wii begins to vastly outnumber the PS3s available. Ramping up really fast will no doubt attract a lot of development that doesn't want to wait around for there to be enough PS3s. This time next year may well tell the tale of who wins this round of console wars.

Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Anonymous Coward]

I doubt the PS3 would accomplish this (1 million in sales by December) if the units were available. There has been a lot of news out lately in regards to what a disaster the PS3 is turning out to be for Sony. Here is a listing of a few of the problems reported already:

- Poor backward compatilibity with PS1 and PS2 games (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15712585/)

- Numerous high def upscaling issues including PS3 BluRay movies not appearing in high definition properly (http://loot-ninja.com/2006/11/19/ps3-hd-scaling-i ssues-other-annoyances/)

- A very poor online system, as compared to the Xbox Live System (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/20/arts/20game.htm l)

- No high definition cables ship with the system, you are stuck with a composite cable unless you pay extra (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/20/arts/20game.htm l)

- Poor graphics on side to side game comparison tests: http://www.gamespot.com/ps3/sports/tonyhawksprojec t8/review.html?sid=6161341

- Poor framerates and "tearing" reported on multiple game titles, including Tony Hawk and Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire (http://www.gamespot.com/ps3/sim/gundamworld/revie w.html)

- Poor buggy development tools which make development very hard as compared to other current gen systems (http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=19611&he d=Atari+Founder+Likes+Xbox360%2C+Disses+PS3&sector =Industries&subsector=EntertainmentAndMedia)

- Multiple launch titles cancelled or delayed due to development issues (http://www.gamesarefun.com/news.php?newsid=7200)

With the Xbox 360 already having 7 million units sold worldwide, the Wii approximately 500,000 units, and the PS3 only having sold 200,000 units in North America and 80,000 units in Japan and none in Europe it is hard to see Sony succeeding with the PS3. The PS3 may be the largest disaster yet for Sony this year, with each PS3 losing $306 for Sony (http://www.videogamesblogger.com/2006/11/16/ps3-l oses-up-to-306-per-unit-xbox-360-profits-76-per-sa le.htm) and the PS3 having the lowest attach rate (0.98) in the industry.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[ThosLives]

with each PS3 losing $306 for Sony

You know, I doubt Sony counts this as a "loss" - they probably book it as an "investment".

Think of it like this: if I spend $1000 on stock, I didn't "lose" $1000 - I invested it, with the hopes of getting more than $1000 back at some point in the future, but my returns are not guaranteed, just as Sony's returns are not. If Sony thinks that by spending (cost - revenue) per unit now will get them (cost + returns) later through game licensing, they don't consider it a loss, but a risky investment. It's only a "loss" at the end of the product cycle if (total sales - total cost) is negative when they stop selling.

I would think that any business-savvy folks would recognize this, but apparently the media is portraying this in a very one-sided manner and getting quite a few people to bite on the misinformation (units costing more than sale price is probably a fact - but it isn't a useful fact in and of itself).

That said, I don't know if the PS3 will end up being an investment for a gain or for a loss - and neither does anyone else.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[99BottlesOfBeerInMyF]

Think of it like this: if I spend $1000 on stock, I didn't "lose" $1000 - I invested it, with the hopes of getting more than $1000 back at some point in the future, but my returns are not guaranteed, just as Sony's returns are not.

You're more or less right, but there is a difference. If you invest in stock you get something, stock. You made a purchase that may or may not increase in value. When Sony loses money selling consoles they don't have anything. They have arguable increased their potential of selling games and movies. Thus, it is more like paying for advertising than it is investing in stock. This doesn't mean that the return is less likely, only that what they have purchased is more ephemeral. It also means their expenditure may be more exploitable by individuals who happen to want just that hardware, but who don't want any games or movies.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[planetmn]

You're more or less right, but there is a difference. If you invest in stock you get something, stock. You made a purchase that may or may not increase in value. When Sony loses money selling consoles they don't have anything.

Sony bought a customer.

-dave

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[swanky street]

Kind sir, I most definitely agree with you. PS3 seems like it's set up for a heavy drop down into the shitter. As always, there will be loyal fans of the platform who will buy it out of devotion, screaming and bawling kids who just think it looks cool and will practically tear their parents' hair out to get it, and those who just seem to have too much money and want to "try it out." Such will be the market for this new system. Regretfully, the PS3 seems to be taking the same path downhill that the Dreamcast laid out years ago. Let's cross our fingers and hope for the best, like a severe drop in the system's price :P

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Total_Wimp]

I doubt the PS3 would accomplish this (1 million in sales by December) if the units were available.

Funny, you gave a lot of URLs for articles that say various negative things about the PS3, but not a single article to bolster your main point, that you believe they would have trouble with sales. On the other hand, Sony had 400k units go out the door in minutes on launch day (Please show me figures if you believe it's lower, because everything I read shows the higher number), with lots of frustrated people paying big bucks on eBay because of very high demand.

I had thought that the Wii was going to be 4 million units strong yesterday. I was impressed that they sold out that many units. As time goes on today, I find out that the true number was much lower. The leisurly sell-out of 500k units actually looks kind of bad for Nintendo in the demand are. Based on the launch day alone, it looks like there was much stonger demand for the PS3.

Once again, say all you want about how bad you think the PS3 is and how great the Wii. you may be wrong and you may be right. But don't try to tell me the Wii is more popular at lauch. Unless you got some cool numbers the rest of us have never seen, it's just fantasy talk. Even if you do have the numbers, you'd be hard pressed to tell me week long lines compare to breezing into the store and haveing no problem getting your box, even though the numbers were closer than everyone thought.

TW

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[twistedsymphony]

I think the GP's point is that you can buy stock, and if you need/want you can resell it and get your money back give or take what has changed. The Money Sony "spent" on console losses cannot be re-sold, similar to advertising you can't un-advertise something.

You also have to consider that it takes quite a hefty amount of game and accessory sales to make that $300+ back. Licensing for 3rd party titles is about $8 a pop, and Sony has arguably the weakest 1st party support out of the three major players so most of their games sales will be for 3rd party games. Even if you consider accessory markup around the 40-60% area you can only sell so many controllers and AV cables before people don't need to buy any more. Blu-Ray movie licensing is probably nothing compared to that of games. They're probably banking on PS3's helping move the format and thus the players that they can make money on. Unlike Microsoft they don't have an online service that brings in money, they also don't have memory cards to bring in money, or a network adapter accessory, etc.

Thinking about it further this money spend really is more like advertising then anything else. They're just doing what they can to get the console out there, to start the word of mouth and get people interested and excited about it so that when there are more games available and the consoles are easier to track down, and Sony's losses per unit aren't as high, they'll sell more of them. It also boosts word of mouth and desire for the Blu-Ray movies which in turn boost sales of the Blu-Ray players that they can make money on. It almost works to their advantage to have so few units out in the wild because it buys them time to reduce the cost of manufacturing, drives up demand from the short supply and the console is still out there for people as a tangible object.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Pluvius]

One thing that pops to mind is the fact that Microsoft has been far, far worse about keeping its promises of backwards compatibility than Sony has been thus far. That fact is mentioned nowhere in the article. Of course, the article is not an editorial and thus wouldn't be expected to mention such a thing, but it does reveal the biases of the AC who linked it.

Rob

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Hassman]

You do realize that the article linked is a Reuters article. Reuters has nothing to do with MSNBC...kinda like the AP. It just happens to be on MSNBC, which by the way is more NBC than MS.

Say it with me... Think, then post. THINK, then post. I know you can do it.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[norminator]

"- Numerous high def upscaling issues including PS3 BluRay movies not appearing in high definition properly"

I believe this only effects certain older TVs and that there are work arounds in those cases.

Actually, you're thinking of the problem where the games scale down to 480p instead of 1080i. This one is about Blu-Ray movies... The PS3 won't scale Blu-Ray movies down to 720p, and apparently (according to the linked article) the 1080i looks bad, so if you don't have a 1080p display, the movies scale back to 1080i or 480p... 1080p is much less common than 720p, so this affects everyone almost anyone who bought their displays over a year ago, and most people who have bought a display within the last year. The link I posted is to a page that was on Digg... I don't know how accurate it is, but it is a rumored problem, and if it is true, it's serious, and affects most of the HDTV owners out there.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Garse Janacek]

It looks like you're using Sony's worldwide launch numbers, but Nintendo's (completely speculated) U.S. launch numbers. Why?

"Everything you read" says Sony shipped 400,000 -- okay, though there are lots of rumors to the contrary I don't know of documented evidence otherwise -- the main documentation seems to say that there are no verified numbers... but, like many reporters you seem to accept Sony's advance numbers by default (despite widespread reports that shipments were short). On the other hand, no definite numbers are known for Nintendo yet, so you... reject Nintendo's numbers and go with lower numbers you made up. Without even the short shipments rumors as in the PS3 case. Why? Are you aware of even one single store that had fewer than twice as many Wiis as PS3s? Most of the margins seem to be well above that, though of course the dust has not settled yet.

I had thought that the Wii was going to be 4 million units strong yesterday.

Why did you think this? Nintendo never said this. Nintendo said 4 million by the end of the year. It's unreasonable to be disappointed in Nintendo because you misread the press releases.

Based on the launch day alone, it looks like there was much stonger demand for the PS3.

You made up your numbers backing this up, and I'm unclear how you define yesterday as "leisurely"... fewer people shot at/robbed? Okay, I'll give you that, but it seems like most stores were still sold out pretty early in the morning, if not right at opening. If it took longer for the sellout to happen than for the PS3, it seems mostly because there were more units available, and more stores with significant numbers of units, so tracking all of them down took longer. Also, people weren't as worried about shortages, and could afford to be less crazy about getting one.

In any case, as basic econ tells us, in situations of inelastic demand (the hardcore fans), "shorter supply" can have effects that look very similar to "stronger demand," and it's very unclear why you're claiming the latter with no real evidence...

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Knuckles]

As I posted above in reply to somebody else, it could just be the whole "razor" theory where you sell the razor for cheap, and make your money (hopefully) on the blades

I totally don't get how one could apply the razor concept to the PS3. The razor concept depend on the idea that the razor is cheap so that people buy it without thinking, and then buy the relatively expensive blades over time without noticing since in absolute terms the blades still don't cost very much and the purchases are spread out over time.

Care to explain to me how this has anything to do with a console that costs USD 500-600 and has games that cost 50-100?

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Rallion]

This is more of an anecdote than a source, but I can state with certainty that the Target I work at got 8 PS3's in, as opposed to 51 Wii's. Both lines were full by midnight on launch day. All stores in my area (I've been given approximate numbers for a Walmart and 4 EBGameStops) have very similar ratios and reports. That may or may not be representative, but at least it's hard numbers.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[DrXym]

Point taken with the upscaling, and I will double check the 360's abilities, but my understanding was that it couldn't upscale to 1080p. As for old TVs, while I think the PS3 should support them, they really are non-standard to support 1080i only. In Europe TVs tagged as HD Ready have to cope with 720p and 1080i and scale between either mode for themselves.

As for networking, I think it's a bit disingenuous to compare the PS3's networking to the PS2. The PS3 offers live chat (text, audio & video) for nothing, a web browser for nothing, downloadable content such as demos for nothing, buddy lists for nothing, matchmaking for nothing, multiplayer games hosting for nothing (e.g. Resistance). Sure it's a little rough around the edges (e.g. some games are using their own buddy lists, store downloads occur in the foreground and so on) but I really see nothing that can't be incrementally improved. And since its free it really isn't that bad.

On the other points, the main reason for my rebuttal was simply because some AC decided to link to a bunch of negative opinion pieces even though in most cases the stories were simply wrong, fud or applied equally to other consoles.

Compare to GameCube

[Pluvius]

That system sold roughly 700K in its first two weeks. Considering the fact that the Gamecube is considerably more popular than the N64 was (thus generating more brand loyalty), going up to 1M would not be an unexpected boost.

Oh, and for the record, the Dreamcast sold about 500K in its first two weeks, and that was outside of the holiday season and limited by supply. As usual, launch figures don't prove much of anything.

Rob

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[killmenow]

Parent post brought to you by Sony Employee #3193.

Re:Yes but the PS3 has sucky games

[WillAffleckUW]

Additionally, all the game reviewers (justly) savaged the PS3 games - except for Resistance: Fall of Man, they are so lame as to want to make you barf.

Can't say I blame them - after sitting thru the reviews, I'd be angry at the quality of the release games for the PS3.

Not the same on the Nintendo Wii side - so far, all the games are great! Zelda - well, it's Zelda - my son and his friend were jazzed, but I never really was into that game. But it works well. They still have to master the jumping on pillars thing.

Rayman's Raving Rabbids is everyone's favorite - it's just plain FUN! Plus, those bunnies can dance! If you hate dancing, well, you might not like it, but otherwise this is the gem of release day.

Excite Truck is cool. Glad we got it.

And the bundled Wii Sports is amazing! Boxing tires you out, Golf is cool, Bowling takes a bit to get used to (hint - line up with the sensor bar), and the others are good too.

Re:Not to shout, but dev costs for the Wii

[WillAffleckUW]

A million sales won't be a surprise. The fun begins when/if the Wii begins to vastly outnumber the PS3s available. Ramping up really fast will no doubt attract a lot of development that doesn't want to wait around for there to be enough PS3s.

Additionally, it's only $2000 for a dev kit for the Wii, but $20,000 for a dev kit for either the PS3 or the xBox360. I can see developing fun games in a small shop for the Wii on a lark - or even a hobby (ok, I'm not poor) - but $20K? This will probably result in a lot more ports to the Wii than you'd expect - not just because 95 percent of game developers seem to be buying Wii consoles for themselves - but also because it's a new mode of play.

I'd love to play the Lego Star Wars II version of the Wii, with my Wii-mote humming when I use it as a light saber, or pinging when I use it as a phase pistol! Plus, I can see doing force moves with the nunchuk!

Re:Bowling doesn't use the sensor bar

[Anonymous Coward]

Bowling takes a bit to get used to (hint - line up with the sensor bar)

That's a terrible hint. For the record I regularly bowl over 200 in Wii Sports' Bowling so I do know what I'm talking about.

None of the Wii Sports games use the sensor bar. It is only used when you are selecting things from menus; even then you can still use the control pad as an alternate. Don't believe me? Try covering up the sensor bar or bowling from another room. It still works the same.

A better (read: useful) tip is to watch your timing on releasing the B button when bowling. You want to release just as your Mii is bringing the ball back up.

And defective by the droves...

[MrPerfekt]

Apparently, the firmware update is rendering the online portion of the system busted for many people. Mine is one of the affected units.

See http://forums.nintendo.com/nintendo/board/message? board.id=internet&message.id=2729 for more.

I waited 12 hours in line for the system so I'm disappointed by this and the fact that there are no component cables to be found (gotta order them online, joy). But the control scheme doesn't suck which can't be changed and is why I bought the system. Overall, another new tech snafu but I'm not really surprised.

Re:And defective by the droves...

[NotthatFrankie]

The component cables will be found in stores soon (EB games employee says they'll be recieving some tuesday). And I expect the firmware thing to be resolved soon. I'm not the one suffering, though.

What I did find slightly annoying was the fact that they didn't have all the features ready by launch. No browser (it being free was one the reason I got a Wii early), no news and no weather. Bummer. But I'm sure it won't matter down the road.

Back-order? Direct-order?

[j741]

O.K. so they're sold out and Nintendo says more are coming. Great. But I don't want to spend the next few weeks driving around from store to store looking for one. I'd rather just go to Nintendo's website and order one directly and wait until it is available and ships to me without any hassle. But no, there's no way that I can see to order directly from Nintendo. Instead, a consumer MUST use a local retail outlet. Unfortunately, none of the outlets I visited are taking any orders. If they're out of stock, that's it. No other option. This sucks. Why cant they do some kind of 'pay now and we'll send it to you when it's here' ordering process.

Re:The still-unanswered question

[Control Group]

I suggest you look up the meanings of "exaggeration," "poetic license," and "dramatic effect."

Re:The still-unanswered question, where r they?

[WillAffleckUW]

This, unfortunately, doesn't answer my most pressing question - when can we expect a restock?

I talked to a lot of different stores, and most of them seemed to indicate monday afternoon is the earliest a restock could happen.

Costco won't even be selling their bundle (Wii, controller, Wii Sports, Excite Truck, Zelda) until Tuesday.

Fred Meyer should restock by Tuesday morning.

I think the EBX guys said something similar.

Sears said something like Tuesday.

So, if you missed out on getting one at midnight Saturday (we were 6th out of the store with ours, plus Zelda, Rayman's Raving Rabbids (cool!)), just check by on Tuesday. We have a controller to pick up ourselves (already got Excite Truck and the 2nd nunchuk).

Meanwhile, 12408 PS3 systems on sale on eBay.

[Animats]

12408 PS3 systems on sale on eBay. And 20574 Wii systems. Way too many. Many of those speculators are going to lose money.

Actual selling prices on eBay are around $350 for the Wii and $750-$800 for the base PS3 today. That's today; there have been significant drops since yesterday. There are still many excessive "buy it now" prices on auctions, and high reserve prices, but those are just asking prices, and are meaningless. Those auctions fail, while the lower priced ones end in a transaction. "Reserve reduced" is now showing for many auctions.

Prices are dropping faster than they did for the Xbox 360.

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

There are a lot of embarrassed Wii fanboys right now...

Well, that beats injured, robbed or dead Sony fanboys.

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[HappySqurriel]

Nintendo has already shipped more units than the PS3 (though we don't know how many), and has now cut their estimates to 2 million by the end of the year

The only numbers Nintendo has ever claimed was 4 Million units sold worldwide by the end of 2006; North America is less than half the market yet Nintendo expects North America to sell half of their anticipated Worldwide numbers, which means either Nintendo is on track or Nintendo is being optimistic.

Re: Are they defective or just console war smack?

[WillAffleckUW]

Uh, better watch the smack talk, there are more Wii's on eBay than PS3s...

Yeah, but that's cause there were five times as many Wii consoles sold on release day.

Unlike the PS3 lines, where National Public Radio couldn't find more than 5 percent of people who had pre-ordered consoles that hadn't sold them or put them up for auction, most of the people in line to get the Wii consoles intended to play them.

And spent until today doing just that.

It was on the radio yesterday morning.

How long will you be playing these games?

[jchenx]

I haven't picked up a Wii yet (had no intentions of camping overnight for a console), but probably will later this year, primarily just for Zelda.

That said, I've been reading a lot of reviews for these games (Zelda, Excite Truck, and Wii Sports in particular), and it's generally only Zelda that has gotten the big thumbs up. The other two are fun, but it's questionable how long you'll be playing them. One of my biggest concerns is that some of the first Wii games are going to be like the first DS games ... interesting for a little bit, since it uses a new play-mechanic, but ultimately stale in the long run.

Are you finding this to be true? I wonder if it depends on the audience as well. If you're a hardcore gamer, then no doubt games like Excite Truck and Wii Sports are not going to hold your attention very long. But if you're a casual gamer, which is who Nintendo is now targeting, those games might be good enough for you. And hardcore gamers will still have titles like Zelda: Twilight Princess to obsess over.

If it's anything like the DS, it's probably going to take a few months before developers really "get it" in terms of how to use the Wii-mote properly. Already reviews are starting to show that some games (Red Steel in particular) do it badly, while other games do a better job.

Re:Back-order? Direct-order?

[LKM]

I'd rather just go to Nintendo's website and order one directly and wait until it is available and ships to me without any hassle

Console manufacturers need the stores' support. They won't compete with them. If Nintendo opened an online store, stores would stock less games and consoles and give them less shelf space. People going to the stores would perceive Nintendo to be the smaller brand and would buy other consoles instead.

Re:Mod Parrent UP

[Pluvius]

Excellent deduction, except for the fact that that's not what Nintendo said.

"Nintendo of America president Reggie Fils-Aime has stated that he expects the company will have sold 1 million units in the Americas by early December and 2 million by the second week in January."
[Emphasis added.]

Zonk just screwed up the /. headline is all.

Rob

Re:Yes but the PS3, is it an investment?

[Amouth]

the sad part is your way off.. sony makes 8$ per copy of 3rd party games.. at a 306$ loss they need 38.25 3rd party games sales to break even.. i don't know anyone with that many games for one consol..

they are hopeing to make it up with movies.. trying to make blue ray have a a foot hold in the home.. i don't know how much they make per disk on that.. but it better be alot or this is going to really sting

6 year lifespan

[Kelbear]

Don't get me wrong, I love the Wii for its controls. But I hate the weak graphics. I like gameplay, but I'm not going to pretend that graphics don't matter. I'd rather have both. I understand that they're focused on the controller this generation and that's great.

But I was hoping that the following generation would come in 4 years and would maintain the fun controls while packing in some respectable power behind it. I sure hope I won't have to wait 6 years for the Wii's sequel.

Re:6 year lifespan

[DarkJC]

I'm going to have to say that I think you're making them a bit better than they are. I had a PS3 and Wii hooked up to the same TV here, and Zelda, while still good in its own right as a Zelda title, couldn't compare to anything the PS3 pumped out of it. The leap is much bigger than PS2 -> GC/Xbox, and I think in a few years the gap is going to widen even more.

Re: Are they defective or just console war smack?

[WillAffleckUW]

Yes, a fact that he "heard on the radio" with no citation or supporting evidence given whatsoever. A fact that also disingenuously refers to "the PS3 lines" even though the statistic given is based on pre-orders.

I heard it on KUOW, the local NPR station. I can't remember what "show" it was, I was waking up at 9 after having been up until 3 playing the Wii. It was a national NPR news feed. The reference to lines was also from coverage on CNN. I also watched G4 on cable for game-day and release coverage, from The Show, from that review thing with Adam whoever and whatshername, and some other thing they do. I also checked Comcast's On Demand G4 game reviews and cheats they posted Saturday.

So I don't like wasting my time posting links. Sue me. If the truth hurts, deal with it. But don't blame me. I'm not the media.