PS3 Missed Ship Targets, Loses Exclusives

Sony's having a rough week. After shootings on launch day and a harsh review from the New York Times, Bloomberg is now calling Sony out as having completely missed its shipping targets. The analyst company says there may have been as few as 50% of aimed-for units available, and that the company may only get about 200,000 units to stores by the end of the year (something Sony flatly denies). PS3 fans now also have to deal with the fact that Koei is cross-platforming two previously exclusive titles. Fatal Inertia and Bladestorm are now in development for the 360 as well, marking the latest in a string of titles that have slipped away from Sony. There is some consolation for the company to take away from this week, though. They did better than Microsoft last week in Japan, with around 81,000 PS3s, 19,000 PSPs, and 16,000 PS2s sold to a mere 4,000 Xbox 360s and ... 4 Xboxes.

Comments

Other PS3 problems of note

[Anonymous Coward]

In addition to the problems mentioned in the article I have been noticing quite a few other issues with the PS3 at this point. Here is a listing of a few of the problems reported already:

- Poor backward compatilibity with PS1 and PS2 games (http://www.gamespot.com/news/6136677.html)

- Numerous high def upscaling issues including PS3 BluRay movies not appearing in high definition properly (http://loot-ninja.com/2006/11/19/ps3-hd-scaling-i ssues-other-annoyances/)

- A very poor online system, as compared to the Xbox Live System (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/20/arts/20game.htm l)

- No high definition cables ship with the system, you are stuck with a composite cable unless you pay extra (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/20/arts/20game.htm l)

- Poor graphics on side to side game comparison tests: http://www.gamespot.com/ps3/sports/tonyhawksprojec t8/review.html?sid=6161341

- Poor framerates and "tearing" reported on multiple game titles, including Tony Hawk and Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire (http://www.gamespot.com/ps3/sim/gundamworld/revie w.html)

- Poor buggy development tools which make development very hard as compared to other current gen systems (http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=19611&he d=Atari+Founder+Likes+Xbox360%2C+Disses+PS3&sector =Industries&subsector=EntertainmentAndMedia)

- Multiple launch titles cancelled or delayed due to development issues (http://www.gamesarefun.com/news.php?newsid=7200)

With the Xbox 360 already having 7 million units sold worldwide, the Wii approximately 600,000 units, and the PS3 only having sold 200,000 units in North America and 80,000 units in Japan and none in Europe it is hard to see Sony succeeding with the PS3. The PS3 may be the largest disaster yet for Sony this year, with each PS3 losing $306 for Sony (http://www.videogamesblogger.com/2006/11/16/ps3-l oses-up-to-306-per-unit-xbox-360-profits-76-per-sa le.htm) and the PS3 having the lowest attach rate (0.98) of any launch in the industry, including the original XBox.

Re:Other PS3 problems of note

[Anonymous Coward]

I've seen this exact same comment posted on multiple sites in the past couple of days.

Usually someone corrects the lies, like the terrible >97.5% backwards compatibility (compared to the 30% XBox360 backward compatibility).

Re:Other PS3 problems of note

[Perseid]

- Poor backward compatilibity with PS1 and PS2 games
- Numerous high def upscaling issues including PS3 BluRay movies not appearing in high definition properly

Both of which are most likely fixable through firmware upgrades. Especially the compatibility which is supposed to be fixed in short order.

- Poor graphics on side to side game comparison tests
- Poor framerates and "tearing" reported on multiple game titles, including Tony Hawk and Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire

I say this a lot. Maybe I should make it my sig. Launch titles suck. Always. It's a fact of life. These games are not representative of the system. Play Kileak for the PS1 and Evergrace for the PS2 and get back to me.

- Poor buggy development tools which make development very hard as compared to other current gen systems
- Multiple launch titles cancelled or delayed due to development issues

When the PS2 was in development the developers of Oddworld were working on the third game for the PS2 when they suddenly announced that they were switching to an XBox exclusive because the PS2 was too hard to code for. This of course sent the game media into a frenzy. And look at where we are now.

And finally the losses-per-system articles all use fuzzy numbers. Many of these devices are patented and manufactured by Sony themselves and nobody outside of Sony knows exactly how much it costs Sony to manufacture said device. Microsoft on the other hand mainly assembles their systems based on parts that they have to buy. I'm not saying the 360 costs more to build than the PS3, I am merely saying that you me and whoever iSuppli are don't know how much they really DO cost.

Me, I'm going to play the waiting game to see who comes out on top. But while Sony certainly has screwed this up I don't see any real indicators yet that they are going to lose.

Re:Other PS3 problems of note

[bishiraver]

"Remind me again, why do WE care about the dev environment? How is that warning consumers of the dangers of the PS3?"

Because poor dev environments caused the downfall of several historic game consoles. See: Sega Saturn.

While there were other issues with the Saturn, such as dev libraries being difficult to get ahold of... development of Sega Saturn cross platform titles often meant spending several extra months of development on the Saturn compared to, say, the PS1. It was one of the primary reasons the Saturn failed (along with its high initial pricetag, and difficulty getting hands on dev kits in the first place, low number of game releases outside of japan.. all of which except the last sound eerily familiar when looked at in context of the PS3).

Ease of system development is very important in forecasting how well third party developers will attach to a system. That's why it's important for a consumer to take into account on initial release. After a year or two when it becomes obvious which system will have better developer support, it can be safely ignored. But what we're trying to do is forecast which will be the one that will have the most numbers sold.

On a sidenote, one of the reasons the PS2 caught on initially and sold a huge number of units was adding DVD. At least, in Japan. DVD technology hadn't caught on huge there yet, and that coupled with several exclusive RPGs (squeenix, etc) cemented its success in Japan. This to some extent also helped it sell well in the US. It's what they're trying to do again with the Blu-ray, but unfortunately the blu-ray technology doesn't have a firm foothold in one of their markets already. Blu-ray movies are few and far between, compared to a point when DVDs were being sold like hotcakes - at least, for US movies. This, along with the production woes, make them introducing a new format much more risky at this point in time.

And about your point about the 'top ten xmas gifts':

The kids polled are probably very young. While this is one of the targets of the Wii, I can definitely see how the PS3 came on the list, and the DS as well - without the Wii.

You have to look at where the youngin's are getting their information, and keep in fact that they're more impressionable by the media than your typical teenage/adult gamer. They hear 'blazingly fast' and 'not much faster than the gamecube' and they go apeshit. They list the DS because they've seen older kids at school with them, or schoolmates with them, or they've played their friends DS, etc. You have to keep in mind that younger kids see a bunch of people with something and say "Those are cool! Everyone has one! I want one too!" rather than making a truly informed decision based on market level projections, hardware issues/points, games, etc.

As a sidenote, I like how legos are up there on the list ;)

Re:Other PS3 problems of note

[Anonymous Coward]

You really should've gotten that PS2, man. That's certainly the best console available today if believe a console's merit comes from its games. Hell, you probably should go get a PS2 today. Much wiser purchase than a Wii, and most people out there agree with me. 300 bucks gets a new PS2 and seven top notch games. And people out there simply refuse to see that this is why the PS3 delays and production slowness aren't major problems, the PS2 is carrying the PS3's costs on its shoulders.

The PS3 is the pop culture item. Everyone wants one. In Europe, in Japan, and to lesser extent but still certainly in North America. If sony can manage to make any of these things, they will sell. Sony was wise to wait so long to get most of the kinks worked out of this program. Unlike Microsoft, sony wasn't trying to replace a sinking ship with a good console, Sony was trying to replace the most dominating console in gaming history.

No flaws in Sony's strategy. Sony consoles sold more than any other brand this year. Sony games sold more than any other console line too. PS2 is where its at. If some knucklehead out there wants to buy a PS3 now, well there's a large price to pay for that. Sony doesn't care than I'm going to wait it out and keep buying PS2 games and consider a PS3 later doen the road. Why would they care? That means more money for Sony. I'll get a PS3 when they have cheaper production costs.

But to buy a Wii? Why? It's not innovative, it's not a new platform, it's a gamecube and a powerglove ripoff. Is the Wii really better than the venerable Playstation 2?

As far as the XBOX 360 goes, well it's clearly the best system on the market. It's got all the capability and an improving library and the best online experience. But I'm still happy with my PS2 for now. I'm also worried that Microsoft will repeat its past history and move to another platform quickly. Original XBOX owners got shafted. PS2 owners certainly did not (if their system stayed working like mine did anyway)

Sony is actually being brilliant here. Sony is trading some of it's PS3 success to cement Bluray. It's going to work (internet movies suck on large screens and will for at least several years). PS2 will hold down the fort, and any scrutiny of why Sony has waited so long to enter the market should remember that PS2 will net a fuckton more money from license and hardware than 360 or Wii will this year or next. 100 million systems buys a lot more games for middle/lower class folks than a few million 360's and wii's will.

Loosing exclusive titles hurts

[jfclavette]

I'm not usually a Sony doomsday prophet, but if something can kill the PS3, it's this. They need their RPGs. They need Koei and Squeenix. If those juggernauts start to slip away, then Sony is in big, big trouble. Most switches will lean in the 360 direction because of comparable specs and input mechanisms. If the exodus reaches some sort of critical mass, where companies don't believe that the PS3 will sell anymore, that whole situation might end very badly for Sony, and very well for MS and, to a lesser extent, Nintendo.

Re:Nice BS numbers from Japan.

[Anonymous Coward]

Could be worse. A system that was released almost a year ago (it was a year ago yesterday), and refreshed in a slightly nicer form factor could outsell the entire brand: http://www.joystiq.com/2006/11/17/japanese-hardwar e-sales-6-november-12-november-new-contender/ .. Yes, that's right. the DS Lite outsold all sony gaming products combined.

Re:Nice BS numbers from Japan.

[Mr. Samuel]

Why don't we get USEFUL numbers. Sony launches a console, Microsoft has a console that's been out for a year. Why do we expect Microsoft's console to sell as many?

This is an excellent question, and I can only assume the answer is one of two things:

1. For some reason, gaming site users have an insatiable appetite for fuel to the "console war" fire, perhaps with little regard for the accuracy of said fuel.

2. See #1.

Imagine what the world might accomplish if the energy we put into worrying about which console was teh winnar was put into, oh, say, discussing what operating system sucks the mostest.

Well

[Sv-Manowar]

A small number maybe, but Sony are also undoubtedly losing out on the import markets. After they recently shut down Lik-Sang.com and got importing PS3's to the UK and a number of other countries banned by law they will have surely shut out a sector of the market of those who are the most hardcore gamers and cannot wait for their consoles (with the European and Australasia launch coming in March 2007 due to lack of Blu-Ray components). It's a shame they had to go to these lengths, which would be understandable if they had have had a global launch date, but leaving some countries without the console for a number of months isn't the best idea, and by blocking imports to those countries they are only loosing more sales and aggravating consumers.

I have a feeling that Sony will need to start giving incentives or at least making it a desirable environment for developers in order to create some games that will become a MUST for the console buyers (like Halo for Xbox, Gears of War/Halo 3 for Xbox360, Mario for N64 etc) if they want to really compete with the low priced Wii and the 360 which is flaunting it's powerful internet features now.

Funny thing...

[dlc3007]

The interesting thing is that if all the numbers are true (or even close), that means that over 10% of all PS3s purchased were resold on eBay -- maybe higher. Don't know why, but that's funny to me.

Re:Sony's Reaction

[HappySqurriel]

One thing a shortage can do is enable a company to be delusional about the demand for the product that they're selling. I'm going to use cars as my example ...

Suppose that this year GM produced a brand new supercharged luxury compact sedan which they sold for $50,000 that was based on the Cobalt; and suppose that GM only produced 25,000 of these cars that sold out (almost) instantly. A marketing drone in GM suddenly believes that there is a massive market for this car and decides that it is important to increase production to 1,000,000 for the next model year; in that model year the company sells 125,000 before they begin (drastically) reducing the price in order to move the excess inventory.

125,000 units would have been a respectable number of cars to sell in a model year but being that 875,000 went unsold it would be remembered as a failure (and the model would be discontinued).

Now, I'm not saying that this will happen to Sony, but 6 months down the line (when the supply of units meets the demand for the units) Sony could be thinking that they have the next big product on their hands where they really had a dud ...

Re:Xbox?

[Valdrax]

At this stage in the game, who is buying a NEW Xbox? You couldn't find a used one or hit up Ebay? I need to find one of these 4 people. I have a nice 486 with a Turbo button that they might find appealing.

Dude, I've seen brand new, unopened consoles from the 80s in Japan. We're talking Famicom and PC Engine (aka NES and TurboGrafx-16). There are several shops in Akihabara that sell both the systems and plenty of games, not all used.

In comparison, an Xbox isn't that surprising of a purchase. It's still not a bad base for making an HTPC once you mod it, and until the 360 is cracked, there's not many better choices on the market at its price range. I can definitely see 4 in the whole of Japan deciding to get one new instead of used.

Re:Gears of Wars for PS3

[Osty]

Searching for a Playstation 3 tech demo on YouTube I found a Gears of Wars like preview of Unreal, on PS3! Today it is marketed as a Microsoft supported game. Does anyone know why that PS3 version has been abandoned? Did Microsoft support it with enough dollars or is this GoW only a preview of the might to come?

As the sibling post says, that's just Unreal 3. Sure, it has a big, beefy human character but that's just Epic's style. As far as GoW on anything but Xbox 360, keep in mind that Microsoft published the game (usually Epic gets published by Atari/Infogrames/GT Interactive/whatever they're calling themselves these days) so unless Epic can shop around to another publisher (no idea what's in their development contract; they may not be able to shop around) they're not going to get GoW published on PS3 or Wii. There's still a chance it may make it to Windows, though probably as a Vista-only gamelike Halo 2.

Why?

[whoop]

Why did Sony set a launch when they clearly can't keep up with demand? Do people want it more that they can't have it, and Joey down the block has one? Did they just want to avoid being third in released systems? Nintendo's clearly hurting now that their system was released last. But then, Xbox 360 was the same way. It wasn't in stores for what, a good six months after "launch?" At least then they were the only next-gen console around.

Nintendo seems to be the only one with the supply to meet the demand. Stores are receiving shipments every week. They have a good lineup of games, Zelda being rated very highly by everyone. Some of the PS3 games I've read about seem to just be prettier/high-defier versions of existing fps/racers/madden. Nothing new with them but the price tag.

And how about them developers? All the extra work in textures and such for the prettiest hi-def graphics. One article said it was in the $10+ million range to make a game. Then they only sell for $10 more than Nintendo Wii games. Companies have to sell massive numbers just to keep themselves even, which explains sticking with set genres. No chance for experimenting on new styles or anything with that huge a risk.

By the time there are enough PS3s for stores to have some on their shelves, Nintendo will already be hitting 10 million systems. Each of those will have perhaps 3-5 store-bought games, as well as some Virtual Console games. That's a big hole they have to dig out of.

So, why did they launch prematurely?

Re:Why?

[mrchaotica]

Nintendo's clearly hurting now that their system was released last.

It was last by 2 days. That's negligible. Besides, it's already sold several times as much as the PS3 anyway (considering they both sold out, and several times many more Wiis were made...).

So, why did they launch prematurely?

Christmas. Not that it's going to do them any good, though, because "getting it out in time for the holidays" on paper won't cause them to magically have enough consoles to even come close to meeting the seasonal demand anyway.

Re:Sony, Nintendo AND Microsoft ALL released too s

[Anonymous Coward]

this time round I couldn't comfortably say that any of the 3 systems out are "shitty"

Me neither. However, I'm totally comfortable in saying that the release schedules for the Cube and Xbox are shitty, and have been for quite a while. If you've played everything you want to on those systems (which admittedly makes you either really picky or insanely dedicated to gaming), then it's time to move on.
Mind you, the PS2 still has some good stuff incoming. That system is not yet dead, but of course Sony couldn't pump out PS3s fast enough for upgraders anyway making the PS2 is a current system in all but name.