What Analysts Will Be Buying For Christmas

Gamasutra's 'Analyze This' gets opinions firsthand from analysts examining the gaming industry. Today they have up a piece looking at gaming purchases that are good Christmas buys. Unsurprisingly, many of them focus on the next-gen consoles, with a few looking 'back' to hot sellers like the DS and Guitar Hero II. From the article: "We feel that Nintendo DS will perform strongly this Christmas in all major territories while PS2 software, nowadays largely ignored by the mainstream media, will continue to sell in significant volumes until 2008. PS2 software will generate around $5.2 billion in software sales in 2006, down from $7.6 billion in 2005. Although new hardware launches are exciting, it is easy to forget that launch performance is not indicative of longer term results. The first meaningful indications as to how the next generation will shape up will not emerge until late 2007. - Ed Barton, Screen Digest"

Comments

Analysts?

[HappySqurriel]

Seriously, what do Analysts know?

I have seen analysts spout garbage like "The PSP will dominate the Nintendo DS starting in 2006" and "The Nokia N-Gage will reduce Nintendo to a fraction of their handheld marketshare". All analysts do is make up predictions and try to justify them without any real understanding on why people buy the products they do, and most of the time they're wrong. I'm willing to bet that the average slashdotter has more accurate predictions than these analysts.

Re:Analysts?

[grogdamighty]

Linux will be ready for mainstream desktop use this year. No, seriously.

Re:Analysts?

[sugarman]

The Nokia N-Gage will reduce Nintendo to a fraction of their handheld marketshare".

Hey, give them some credit. 999/1000 is still a fraction.

The Ancient, Decrepit PS2

[thatguywhoiam]

... still lays golden eggs. Seriously, go look at the sales figures. I was somewhat astonished.

Beginning to thing that the PS2 is a missing part of the conversation about the PS3; perhaps the reason Sony aimed so damn high with the spec is that they already have a low-end console with a massive library that sells like crazy. They can probably take the brunt of the parts shortages and bad vibes up front by riding on the PS2's shoulders for at least another two years.

Re:The Ancient, Decrepit PS2

[HappySqurriel]

They can probably take the brunt of the parts shortages and bad vibes up front by riding on the PS2's shoulders for at least another two years.

From a market share and revinue perspective Sony will be fine for a couple of years with how the PS2 is performing. The question is how healthy will the PS3 be in 24-36 months (from a software line-up) if it is consistently outsold by both the Wii and XBox 360 (hypothetically speaking of course)? When has a console that is trailing (by a wide margin) ever recovered to become the market leader?

Re:The Ancient, Decrepit PS2

[oc255]

"The PlayStation 2 is the most popular console with 57% of gamers
owning one compared to 39% with an Xbox and 27% with a Gamecube. A
small, fanatical number, 8%, own all three consoles."
BBC News: 8 April, 2005 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/4423365.stm

Damn it, I'm a generic fanatic apparently.

Seriously!

[Doctor Memory]

Read this interview and then tell me if you'd play anything recommended by "analysts". These people are paid to analyze industries and trends, not games and consoles. It's like asking a commodities broker which grocer has the best bananas! I'd far sooner trust a gaming journalist. They're far less likely to judge a game based on "genre coverage" as opposed to actual gameplay...