Software Used To Predict Who Might Kill

eldavojohn writes "Richard Berk, a University of Pennsylvania criminologist, has worked with authorities to develop a software tool that predicts who will commit homicide. I could not find any papers published on this topic by Berk, nor any site stating what specific Bayesian / decision tree algorithm / neural net is being implemented." From the article: "The tool works by plugging 30 to 40 variables into a computerized checklist, which in turn produces a score associated with future lethality. 'You can imagine the indicators that might incline someone toward violence: youth; having committed a serious crime at an early age; being a man rather than a woman, and so on. Each, by itself, probably isn't going to make a person pull the trigger. But put them all together and you've got a perfect storm of forces for violence,' Berk said. Asked which, if any, indicators stood out as reliable predicators of homicide, Berk pointed to one in particular: youthful exposure to violence." The software is to enter clinical trials next spring in the Philadelphia probation department. Its intent is to serve as a kind of triage: to let probation caseworkers concentrate most of their effort on the former offenders most likely to be most dangerous.

Comments

And yet again

[TCM]

...the attempt to solve with technology what can't be solved by technology.

How about having social workers that deserve that job title? Do we soon replace all judgment on humans and human interaction with computers'?

It is this very dehumanization that causes violence among humans in the first place. How long until someone is flagged by this and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because he feels trapped?

This whole anti-social project shouldn't even have started. What a waste.

Re:Reference

[cluckshot]

Well since I was making Hurricane forecasts by July of 2006 that said the season was essentially over for the USA... (Not bragging just I did) The forecasting of events really isn't a hard or difficult thing. In the case of prisoners, you would do better to give a small reward system for accuracy and do a survey system similar to Iowa Prediction Markets. (do your own lookup) It is often a reality that we can predict who is going to steal the most or who is going to kill and quite accurately.

Having worked in a prison as RN, I know pretty well what is going on with the crime scene. It isn't a mystery. The domestic ignorance of what is causing crime, and how to deal with it is mostly the problem. People really just don't like the factor set being told. So I will just to get some really low moderation (by telling the truth) tell approximately what is the profile of violent criminals.

A violent criminal usually falls either below 85 IQ or above 185 IQ. The frequency of this below IQ 85 is about 85% of the population of such persons with about 13% above IQ 185. Only a tiny fraction falls in the middle. Essentially a person who is violent is one who cannot adapt to their world due to low mental state and who rashly reacts to situations they are unable to handle. The very bright criminals of this type are in fact vicious cunning predators. The unique and common link of both groups is their unwillingness to defer gratification of desires for extended periods of time. The want something now and they demand it now and they get it now. They brush anything out of their way on the way including other human beings. If this profile matches to the behavior of some other groups of people we all know and love (CEO's) It isn't an accident. They fall out of this group as well. Essentially we have a party who is willing to force the system rather than work with it. This profile does have racial components. Certain (Nameless deliberately -- I am not suicidal) racial groups tend to do this more than others by wide margins. You could just as well determine these people by their credit rating. It would be just as accurate or more so than the networks.

Actually the most uniform behavior seen in prison is that the persons are ones who "flunked out of kindergarten." The reality here is that successful anti-crime programs generally teach people to defer gratification and to do things like saying those 3 magic words, "Please" and "Thank you." I know this sound simple. It really is. The Church of Scientology (I am not a member and don't intend to be one) has a very successful program that teaches this sort of stuff. It empties prisons when tried. The reality is that when people are taught how to actually deal with their desires and how to communicate with others and how to handle situations, most of them actually do so. This is a damning statement against our modern public schools who think that such teaching is not their duty. Frankly it is their only duty.