Predicting the Internet in 1995

Rexdude writes "Here is a list of predictions from 'The Internet' magazine at the end of 1994. It highlights the major changes and events on the net as it was back then (20 million users only, for starters). Seems a throwback to a relatively more innocent time, when the unwashed masses had not taken over the net as much as today. And look at the reverence accorded to long dead protocols like Gopher!"

Comments

"Internet Yellow Pages"

[vistic]

I have a book from 1995 or so called "The Internet Yellow Pages" which seems to claim it lists every site on the Internet. It's about two inches thick and arranged by topic. There's sort of an even mix of Usenet newsgroups, gopher sites, telnet, WWW, listserv, and FTP.

Re:"Internet Yellow Pages"

[multipartmixed]

I had a copy of that. I also bought "The Internet White Pages" that year... because it listed my email address!

Re:"Internet Yellow Pages"

[gEvil (beta)]

When I was on one of my school breaks around '95 or '96, I temp'd for a couple of guys who were attempting to compete with Yahoo! Their plan: Buy every book like that, hire a bunch of temps, and have them manually enter everything into one ginormous html page. I don't think they ever got very far with that. But hey, I was making 15 bucks an hour for work that nobody would ever check. : p

Re:"Internet Yellow Pages"

[wordsnyc]

I actually wrote a book for Random House in 1996 called "The Book Lover's Guide to the Internet," which consisted of a newbies' guide to getting online (incl. a warning against AOL) and hundreds of site synopses and links. It's still in print. They're still selling it (albeit a 1998 revision, but still...). I was mortified when I realized last year that people are still buying it, but there's nothing I can do about it.

WWW

[spellraiser]

Under the list Worst in Net Entertainment:

The organization of the World-Wide Web. I love the Web, but finding something specific on it is a nightmare. And because the Web is growing by leaps and bounds, I just don't see things getting easier anytime soon.

How little they knew ...

A few gems in there.

[Kadin2048]

Well I thought this one was particularly prescient:
Conflicts between local and global Internet jurisdictions will become more pronounced, especially over censorship issues. How will prosecutors in Tennessee go after posters from Denmark?

A very good question indeed. Pity he didn't pick prosecutors in New York going after posters from Russia... let's hope the question remains unanswered.

It was also interesting how many of the 'big questions' in 1994 are now forgotten. Like SLIP versus PPP -- now, most people couldn't even tell you what either of them are. It went from being a big question, to a decided fact, and then faded into irrelevance. Now there's just "the Internet," and most people don't think about how they connect to it with their modem, if they use a modem at all. I wonder if HD-DVD vs BluRay will look the same way, in 10 years of hindsight?

Is this real?

[shumacher]

I was on the internet back then, much as, I suspect, a significant portion of slashdot users. The facts seem about right, but the writing makes me wonder if the article is a hoax.

Re:Missed a few.

[Tackhead]

And since I didn't close those quotes properly, let's try that again. The first link in my quoting of the Greenberg comments was supposed to refer to the

• Digital Telephony Bill

...which was the legislation that contained CALEA, the legal wedge through which the present (omnipresent? :) surveillance infrastructure has been driven over the past twelve years and three Presidential administrations.

Quite accurate actualy...

[kebes]

I've collected together the "prediction" comments from TFA into a list. Take a look:

1. A World-Wide Web add-on, whereby category and file size can be assessed prior to file transfer, will be proposed.
2. Software that handles virtually all network functions via one seamless interface will emerge and begin to dominate the commercial Internet marketplace.
3. Internet access via ISDN will see a massive growth spurt.
4. A protocol will be developed for smaller interest groups to form larger common-interest federations.
5. UFOs will make contact with the Internet.
6. Cancelbot wars. As spamming and the spam-killing cancelbots become more widespread, people will find their Usenet News messages canceled by someone who simply doesn't like them. Cancelbot software will spread, as people begin editing out opposing views and unfriendly ideas.
7. More secrets. With more and more commerce being conducted through the Net, encryption will become necessary and common. Clipper will die, and something like PGP or ViaCrypt will be used by most people and businesses.
8. Two new standards; the first for dial-in users, the second for commerce. Whether it's a SLIP or PPP process that all access providers will adopt, we'll see easy access in easy-to-use products. A standard also will emerge for secure monetary transactions, using some form of encryption, that will make people comfortable sending credit-card information over the wire.
9. More bandwidth. A new transmission medium will be announced that offers a many-fold increase in speed and savings over the current offerings. An entirely new hardware technology will emerge that will eventually replace the T-3 and fiber-optic lines that carry much of the Net's traffic. Why? Because it must. The Net is overloaded as it is, and necessity has always been the mother of invention. Watch Bell Labs.
10. Smart searches. The first intelligent agent software packages will emerge, allowing Net users to ask for a specific piece of information like "What is the population of Fiji?" or "How far is Saturn from the Sun?" An agent will go out on the Net , find the information, and return it without the user knowing the source.
11. ISDN access will become a common standard for small office and home office access, allowing lots of new applications from conferencing to software distribution.
12. Return of the editors. The CB radio effect; too much noise from too many people; will drive more people to moderated lists and newsgroups.
13. Digital cash will bring home shopping and pay-per-view to the Internet, as well as new forms of asset protection, money laundering, and tax evasion.
14. Conflicts between local and global Internet jurisdictions will become more pronounced, especially over censorship issues. How will prosecutors in Tennessee go after posters from Denmark?
15. On-line politics will take off in a big way, with candidates for the 1996 presidential race making their positions available, soliciting funds, debating opponents, and forging postings from each other. Some campaign somewhere will get in trouble over dirty GIFs.
16. Cancelbot wars will erupt on some newsgroups. Some disbarred attorneys will unleash a doomsday bot that cancels every Usenet message that does not refer to their green card services.
17. I have one word for you: connectivity. As the nation unifies into a blob-like Web addict, the roar for faster connectivity will grow deafening. "An ISDN in every wall outlet, and a chicken in every pot!" to quote the precocious William Jennings Bryant.

What's truly amazing is how accurate they are, overall. (At least in spirit if not in exact details, which is understandable.) For instance:

• 2. Yes: web browser.
• 3., 9., 11. and 17. It's an obvious prediction, but bandwidth kept increasing as new technologies were implemented.
• 4. Not so much a 'protocol' but the internet has been adapted to do just that in many different ways.
• 6. and 16. Well newsgroups are no

Re:Quite accurate actualy...

[multipartmixed]

You missed a few matches.

#1 - Category and File Size: Content-Type and Content-Length headers in HTTP describe these. Back in '94, everything was just text/html, text/plain, or multipart/alternative (or so it seemed).

#2 - Integration/Domanation: NOT just the web browser. The software he predicted happened the very next year: Windows '94 + Internet Explorer 4. Remember, back in '94 we were still playing with Trumpet Winsock, Crynwr drivers, blah de blah just to get our damned copies of NCSA Mosaic up and running.

#3 - ISDN saw a minor spurt. I had TWO pairs of b-channels around '99. But then, DSL came and completely obviated the need for ISDN. (I still have my 768k full duplex SDSL connection... had it since '01 or so.. Not my only connection, though.. just my most reliable)

#7 - SSL, SSH

#8 - PayPal

#9 - He was even right about watching Bell Labs for the bandwidth growth... Except it was called Lucent or something around the bubble.

#10 - This was more-or-less done with "Ask Jeeves". Ask.com didn't work out, though, people liked the Google better. The only thing I ever asked Jeeves was was if he was gay. And that answer doesn't work anymore. Somebody has bought ask.com and neutered him.

#11 - He was bang-on, except it was ADSL instead of ISDN. Close enough.

#12 - Return of the editors -- Wikipedia

#13 - eBay Stores

#14 - RIAA vs AllOfMP3, anyone?

#15 - Yes, politicos are using the net, and neferiously sometimes.

#17 - My house has lots of net-connected ethernet outlets. Does that count?

I don't know what the fascination with cancelbots was with these guys, though. They weren't a huge problem in '94, and restricting them was easy.

Re:Gopher isn't dead!

[digitalfilmmaker]

Gopher rocked. I got on the net in '93 and I loved Gopher. I hated the web until I saw it using Mosaic. But Gopher compared to the early Lynx was no comparison, it was hard to find the links, and it was disorganized. Where Gopher was easy to navigate, and very structured. And then I saw the web with pictures, and I instantly got it.

They were right!

[billdar]

From TFA under predictions:

UFOs will make contact with the Internet.

They were right!

A Blessing...and a Curse

[Deinhard]

Worst Internet omen: Home Shopping Channel joins the Internet.

It's interesting to note that the impending eCommerce boom would be considered a "worst omen."

Then, later on...

Commerce on the Internet. Whether it's junk e-mail or inappropriate postings to your favorite Usenet group, commercial ventures are here to stay and are finding the Internet a pretty pleasant place to do business. The good news is that we're the pioneers of this medium and we get to help sculpt it into something we like. The bad news is that some people just aren't listening. Can you really get rich quick, after all?

Now, twelve years on, did we actually get to "sculpt it into something we like" or did the Internet just take on a life of it's own and evolve into the entity that we now have? Also, the answer to the last question in the quote is "Yes...but you can also go broke quick."

Good times

[Al Al Cool J]

I remember those days well. I had home dial-up at 2400 baud, but it was metered and expensive, and I could only afford 20 hours a month.

Then I discovered that my old university's library catalog had a BBS dial-in interface for anybody with a valid student number (easily skimmed from numerous sources on campus). Buried in the catalog system was a primitive gateway to the library's gopher pages, and while it wouldn't let you enter an arbitrary URI, I was able to find the right sequence of links to me to any gopher site on the net.

Then I found an http-gopher gateway that gave me primitive access to the web. From there I found an nttp-http gateway that gave me access to USENET, including all the binary groups. Jackpot!

Man, I downloaded a lot of free porn that summer.

HD-DVD vs BluRay

[skiingyac]

It was also interesting how many of the 'big questions' in 1994 are now forgotten. Like SLIP versus PPP -- now, most people couldn't even tell you what either of them are. It went from being a big question, to a decided fact, and then faded into irrelevance. Now there's just "the Internet," and most people don't think about how they connect to it with their modem, if they use a modem at all. I wonder if HD-DVD vs BluRay will look the same way, in 10 years of hindsight? Considering also how VHS vs. Betamax looks today (I can't remember the last time I bought a VHS tape)... mainly over convenience (no rewinding, etc.) and quality/durability.

In probably less than 10 years video on demand plus larger capacity flash media will make HD-DVD vs. BluRay irrelevant... also mainly over convenience and quality/durability.

Convenience - no need to buy/store/insert/etc. a "big" physical disk, if you want to bring it to a friend's house load it on your ~50GB USB stick on your keychain, or just email it to them. Plus all the new gaming consoles are internet-connected and have the power to decode & play video and already cost (or soon will) the same as what a HD-DVD or Bluray player costs... makes you wonder why Sony even bothered with what kind of disk their console uses...

Quality/durability - if the video is streamed over fiber and not stored locally, a ridiculous encoding bitrate can be used. Nothing to break, if you want to watch the movie, just enter your login and start streaming, or save it on your hard drive.

Re:HD-DVD vs BluRay

[Gr8Apes]

I think you're missing the point on this. You'll pay for every viewing under that model, if they get their way. This may not be a bad thing for adults (How many times could we possibly watch the Matrix or LOTR trilogies anyways?;) but think of your kid watching The Wiggles shows at least 100 times each.... All of a sudden, the death of (HD)DVD/Blu-Ray seems way overblown.

I do not believe that "lifetime" subscriptions will occur anytime soon. The MPAA/RIAA models are trying to move towards pay per play, or at the very least pay per download while changing the underlying format every 5-10 years. They've been successful so far: 78s, 45s, 33s, EPs, LPs, Reel to Reel, 8-track, casette, SACD, DVD-Audio, VHS, Beta Max, S-VHS, DVD +-R(W)(RAM - still around in new products, couldn't believe my eyes!!!) DVD-DL +-R(W), and now HD-DVD/Blu-Ray with a soon to come -DL designator (I don't believe either of the writables are dual layer yet, although the spec calls for it - I could be wrong though). Then there's the entire analog (take your pick of "standards") to digital to digital compressed encoding to DRM'd digital standards.

I'll predict in 10 years you'll still see MP3/AAC encoded music because Flash memory can only be shrunk so small and a 20-40 fold increase in an Apple Nano's memory size in 10 years while keeping the same or lower price point seems reasonable. You may still see DVDs, only because the masses refuse to upgrade to a $300 player when a $20 player does everything they need. As for HD-DVD/Blu-Ray, that one is interesting, they're both DRM'd badly at the moment, and the early adopter crowd that this should be targeted to these days also happens to most likely be the same crowd that is knowledgeable enough about DRM to say "NO". Witness the recent fallout of HDTV sales just being reported, nobody knows if it's a true trend yet but it seems reasonable to expect a large number of people to be unhappy with their HDTV since they will most likely not pickup HD signals out of the box.

Re:Gopher isn't dead!

[kaszeta]

Sadly the U of MN (where Gopher was written) no longer has a Gopher node.

Sadly? Heck no. Having been a systems administrator at the U of MN for several years during Gopher's declining years, I had to suffer through entirely too much Gopher-related nonsense:

1. For several years they wouldn't let us run a web server unless we made the same content available via Gopher.
2. An entire year of internal bickering about whether or not the University should charge licensing fees for Gopher.
3. If you weren't at the "Gopher World Tour", circa '93 or '94, hearing about how Gopher wasn't yet dead, and how graphical browsing was over-rated, but at the same timing hearing how Gopher+ and GopherVR 3D were going to show those web snobs how information exchange was really done, you haven't yet seen what the meaning of "beating a dead horse" is.
4. Much bickering between the Gopher Development Team, the web folks, and Campus Wide Information System groups about stealing resources from each other, with the Gopher people proclaiming "we invented the Internet!"

Oy. By the time they finally pulled the plugs on their Gopher servers I was ready to pound nails in the coffin myself.

Re:Gopher isn't dead!

[Troy Baer]

It wasn't just U. of Minnesota, either. In '94 or '95, I had a couple people from Ohio State's Academic Computing Services department tell me that "this web thing is just a fad" and that I shouldn't bother with it, because the OSU physics department had just cancelled their web project with CERN... They were adamant that Gopher was going to take over the world.